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Clemson Basketball

Weekly Clemson Basketball Resume Check

February 23, 2018
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What a difference 9 days makes.  A week ago Wednesday Clemson was riding high, held an 18 point lead early in the second half in Tallahassee and appeared to be headed for a 21-4 record and a 10-3 mark in the ACC.

The Tigers lost that game and two more since and are still looking for victory 21 on the season and 10 in ACC play.

Not all is lost, however and below is Clemson's current resume for the NCAA tournament is below we'll track the Tigers resume for the remainder of the season. 

In addition, for a more complete picture,  we've added the odds for success during March Madness and win probabilities for the Tigers remaining regular season games (via ESPN).

Current and Historical Resume

As of Record Conf Record vs, Top 50 RPI BPI SOR SOS  Non-Conf Schedule  Projected Seed
2/23 20-7 9-6 7-5 10 17 15 19 153 5*
2/16 20-5 9-4 7-3 6 16 10 34 162 3*
2/9 20-4 9-3 7-2 4 18 6 42 143 2*
2/2 18-4 7-3 7-2 5 18 9 23 155 3*
1/26 16-4 5-3 6-2 6 17 11 23 138 3*

vs. Top 50: Record vs. current top 50 ESPN BPI teams.

RPI: Team's rank in official NCAA Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). 

BPI: Rank in the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) among all Division I teams.

SOR: Rank of Strength of Record (SOR) among all Division I teams. SOR reflects the chance a typical 25th ranked team would have team's record or better, given the schedule on a 0 to 100 scale, where 100 is best.

SOS: Strength of Schedule (SOS) rank among all Division I teams based on how a typical 25th ranked team would do against each team's schedule to date. SOS accounts for the game location, day's rest, travel distance, and high altitude in addition to opponent strength.

Non-Conf Schedule: Non-Conference Schedule Rank.

*Projected Seed: ESPN College Basketball Power Index projects Clemson as a 4 seed, however  Joe Lunardi currently projects Clemson as a #5 seed in the East Regional in Dallas facing Loyola-Chicago in the latest edition of Bracketology.

Tournament Odds

While the resume has lost a bit of shine, the Tigers are in good shape and, assuming a couple of wins in the final 3 games, Clemson should be a lock for the Big Dance. 

What are the odds once they get there?  Per ESPN (based on Joe Lunardi's bracketology) here are Clemson's odds:

Make Sweet 16 Make Final Four Win Tournament
35.0% 4.0% 0.6%
1 in 2.9 1 in 25 1 in 166.7

 

Win Probabilities for Remaining Games

ESPN has assigned the following win probabilities to Clemson's remaining regular season games:

Date Opponent Location Win Probability
2/24 Georgia Tech Clemson 93.5
2/28 Florida State Clemson 72.9
3/3 Syracuse Syracuse 52.7

In case you are wondering, Clemson's best seeding in the NCAA Tournament came in 1987 and 1997 when they entered as a #4 seed.

The 1987 team was eliminated in the opening round by Southwest Missouri State 65-60. The 1997 team made a run into the Sweet Sixteen before #1 seed Minnesota knocked off the Tigers 90-84 in double overtime.

 
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