Lowell's Locks: Week Thirteen

It’s a game of inches. I finished last weekend with a 5-1 record but had a chance at the perfect slate. A DJ Uiagalelei pass attempt on fourth down of their final drive against Washington fell incomplete, costing me the Oregon State -1 pick as Washington pulled it out 22-20. Everything else went swimmingly, and I assured myself of an over .500 regular season. Now, it’s about keeping things rolling on rivalry week. Let’s get to the games. 

Saturday, November 25th:

#2 Ohio State at #3 Michigan (-3.5):

Michigan may well win this game, but that .5 hook on the spread has me leaning the other way in my pick. JJ McCarthy isn’t hitting on some of the same explosive plays through the air that he was last season for Michigan, and now they get an Ohio State defense that ranks #1 in the nation in passing defense. Kyle McCord certainly isn’t CJ Stroud, but he’s been quietly getting better throughout the season for the Buckeyes. This should be a low-scoring slugfest (Michigan’s defense is elite, too, sign stealing or not) that doesn’t finish as more than a field goal game either way. 

Lowell’s Lock: Ohio State covers +3.5

Kentucky at #10 Louisville (-7.5): 

On the surface, it may seem that Louisville has nothing but pride to play for here. However, the Cardinals have an outside shot at the college football playoff. They’ll need a convincing win in this one and a win over Florida State in the ACC Championship, but the hope is real. Kentucky looked all out of sorts in losing at South Carolina last week and have now lost five of their past six games. The offense isn’t consistent enough to win this one, and if the Cards score early, look out.

Lowell’s Lock: Louisville covers -7.5

#8 Alabama (-13) at Auburn:

New Mexico State. Call it a look-ahead game, a trap, or whatever you want. Auburn paid $1.8 million dollars to get waxed 31-10 by New Mexico State last weekend. No disrespect to the Aggies and legendary head coach Jerry Kill, but that doesn’t instill any confidence in this weekend’s game. Since the game against Arkansas, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has settled into the job brilliantly and is as hot as any player in the country. The defense is playing well, too, and combined with Auburn’s struggles on offense, I don’t see the Tigers hanging around in the second half. 

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama covers -13

Washington State at #4 Washington (-16.5):

This should be an explosive contest. Washington State snapped a six-game losing streak last weekend, and the air raid offense led by Cameron Ward looked like it got back on track. They should be able to move the ball and score on a Washington defense that’s seemingly gotten worse as the year has gone on. The issue for the Cougars is the quarterback on the other side, Michael Penix, who should rack up plenty of yards and points of his own in pursuit of an undefeated regular season and a Heisman. The Huskies take this one at home but won’t get a chance to breathe until late.

Lowell’s Lock: Washington State covers +16.5

#5 Florida State (-6.5) at Florida):

The backup game. Florida State’s Jordan Travis (leg) and Florida’s Graham Mertz (collarbone) are both out for the season, and they will turn to Tate Rodemaker and Max Brown, respectively. Rodemaker has been with Mike Norvell since Norvell took over the Seminoles in 2020 and has gotten regular work in mop-up duty. Brown, however, is just a redshirt freshman with 12 career pass attempts. As much as Travis going down hurt the Seminoles, Florida losing Mertz is even bigger. The Seminoles have the better overall team here, and the bet is that Rodemaker is good enough in Norvell’s system to propel the Seminoles to a decently sized margin of victory. 

Lowell’s Locks: Florida State covers -6.5

#24 Clemson (-7.5) at South Carolina:

Over the past three weeks, Clemson has dominated Notre Dame and the statistical number four and two offenses in the ACC in Georgia Tech and North Carolina. The Tigers are winning at the line of scrimmage, and the offensive line in particular, seems to have found a nastiness to them in the running attack. The Gamecocks managed to squeak out a win against Kentucky last weekend and are quietly on their own three-game winning streak, but not all streaks are created equal; the Gamecocks have beaten Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, and the aforementioned Kentucky in that span. When playing teams with better talent than them, the Gamecocks are being drilled overall. The big issue comes into play with their offensive line, which is 124^th in the nation in sacks allowed and 127^th in tackles for loss allowed; The Tigers are 37^th in sacks and 8^th in tackles for loss. Clemson will live in the South Carolina backfield all game, the running attack will keep rolling against an incredibly suspect South Carolina defense, and the Tigers will deny the Gamecocks a bowl game.

Score Prediction: 34-17 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -7.5

Until next week, folks.