Lowell's Locks: Week Six

A 3-3 record last week halts some of the momentum the Locks had built over the past few weeks. Kansas State beat Oklahoma State in a romp, Illinois made things ugly against Penn State, and Clemson rolled over Stanford to mark the wins. Miami looked vulnerable for the first time this season against Virginia Tech, Louisville couldn’t quite cover against Notre Dame, and Alabama put on a show against Georgia for the losses. That’s already in the rearview mirror, however. We get back on track this week. 

Saturday, October 5th:

No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M (-2.5):

If I had to pick something other than the spread, I’d probably go with the under 48.5 here. Both teams have slogged through the past few weeks, but both are playing relatively solid defense. Missouri is more talented on offense, but will they hold up against an A&M front seven, which is the strength of the Aggies’ team? Aggies quarterback Connor Weigman is questionable for this one, but backup Marcel Reed brings a dimension with his legs that I think the Tigers will have a tough time with. Give me the home team.

Lowell’s Lock: Texas A&M covers -2.5

SMU at No. 22 Louisville (-6.5):

Still feels weird to call this an ACC game. The Mustangs got up big on Florida State last time out and never looked back, putting up a 42-spot on the hapless Noles. The Stangs are very good at forcing turnovers, coming into this game with 14 total forced on the year. However, the pass rush is a concern. That’s bad news against the Cardinals, who have Tyler Shough at quarterback, putting up about 280 yards a game through the air. We get some fireworks here early, but the Cardinals pull away in the second half with a couple of key stops.

Lowell’s Lock: Lousiville covers -6.5

Auburn at No. 5 Georgia (-22):

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a line in the 20’s between two power-four teams that I didn’t think was high enough. The analysis here is simple. Remember the last time Georgia lost to Alabama and what they did to Florida State? Say a prayer for Auburn.

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia covers -22

No. 10 Michigan at Washington (-1.5):

At first glance, this feels like a “gotcha” line by Vegas. I’ve gone back and forth a couple of times analyzing this one, and while Washington has had a hard time stopping the run, it’s also the only thing Michigan can do. They present no threat through the air, and I’m expecting the Huskies to load up the box. Michigan has also shown they can be thrown on, and Will Rodgers is one of the best in the country at slinging the rock. Give me the Huskies.

Lowell’s Lock: Washington covers -1.5

No. 12 Ole Miss (-9.5) at South Carolina:

I don’t have a good track record so far this season picking South Carolina games. I’ve picked against them four times, and I’ve lost three of those. So let’s try something different. 

The Gamecocks’ defensive front is for real and should cause a lot of issues for the Ole Miss offense, much like Kentucky did. If the South Carolina offensive line can hold up at all against a fierce Rebels defensive front, they have a real shot to score a major upset. I don’t think it happens, but I do think they can hang in this thing, especially at home.

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina covers +9.5

No. 15 Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State:

If you’re the Seminoles, what advantage do you think you have in this game? Florida State can’t stop the run (96th run defense), can’t stop the pass (73rd pass defense), can’t run the ball (131st run offense), and can’t pass the ball (86th passing offense). The Seminoles are turning to Brock Glenn due to an injury to starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, but I’m not convinced it will make a difference against a Clemson squad that seems to be back on track.

Score Prediction: 45-17 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -14.5