Lowell's Locks: Week Eight

That’s more like it. A 4-2 record has the Locks slowly easing back up, like Clemson’s playoff stock. Penn State, Oregon, LSU, and Clemson all took care of business for me, while Oklahoma and Alabama fell flat against big lines. I’m still not sure who South Carolina is as a program, and they confounded me yet again as they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Tide. Picking this week’s game in Norman won’t be any easier.

Saturday, October 19th:

No.6 Miami (-5) at Louisville:

This is a scary game for Miami. The Canes have shown some cracks in the armor and are likely to not have two losses. Louisville, meanwhile, probably should be undefeated. The Cardinals have a quarterback in Tyler Shough who can keep pace with Cam Ward, and the defense is solid enough to give the Canes issues and keep this tight.

Lowell’s Lock: Louisville covers +5

No.7 Alabama (-3) at No. 11 Tennessee:

Here’s the reality of the situation in Tuscaloosa: This is not a Saban team. It’s time to stop having the same expectations. 

The offense is still there for Alabama, and they can score quickly—and in bunches. The defense is struggling, but something is off with the Tennessee offense as well. This could be a classic, high-scoring affair. I’ll take Jalen Milroe and the Alabama defense to get one more stop than the Vols.

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama covers -3

No.12 Notre Dame (-9.5) at Georgia Tech:

A sneaky road test to Atlanta awaits the Irish. Both teams are predicated on a strong ground game, and that’s particularly good news for the Yellow Jackets, as they’ve been vulnerable through the air. Georgia Tech already wants to run the ball, and with the way the Irish play passing defense, I’d expect a heavy dose of the ground game from Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are also good enough in run defense to keep this a tight battle well into the fourth quarter.

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia Tech covers +9.5

No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas (-5):

The last time Georgia wasn’t favored in a regular season game was the 2021 season opener against Clemson. 50 games have come and gone before the SEC newcomer Texas finally made them an underdog. Not for no reason, however. 

Texas appears to be the most complete team in the country. The defense hasn’t played a multifaceted attack like the Bulldogs bring, so we’ll get some questions answered in that regard, but the Longhorns are going to be able to move the ball and score against Georgia. Quinn Ewers is quietly one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the nation, and you’re going to see him rise up here.

Lowell’s Lock: Texas covers -5

South Carolina at Oklahoma (-1.5):

I am once again trying to figure out South Carolina. Since correctly predicting their first game against Old Dominion, I’ve since missed on my last five picks for them. So, I’m going to try something different and go against my initial instinct for this one. 

Neither of these teams has a very good offensive line, and both are tied for sacks on the year with 19, good for 11th. Oklahoma is slightly better in tackles for loss and scoring defense, but they have a huge advantage in turnover margin. The Sooners have forced 14 turnovers and given away seven, while the Gamecocks have both gained and lost 12. A timely turnover late bites the Gamecocks.

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma covers -1.5

Virginia at No. 10 Clemson (-21):

Another week, another big line for the Tigers to try to cover. As much as we watch the big plays on offense from the Tigers in awe, the story of the turnaround starts with the lines. The offensive line for the Tigers has been owning everyone, and that won’t change against an average Virginia defense. The Cavaliers offense also isn’t doing enough this season for me to think this game will be competitive past the first quarter and a half.

Score Prediction: 38-13 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -21