Keys to Victory: No. 8 Clemson vs. Louisville

Each week, we review the game’s history, three keys to success, and Swanny’s prediction.

The Match-Up:

No. 11/8 Clemson (6-1, 5-0 ACC) vs. Louisville (5-3, 3-2 ACC)

After an open date last week, Clemson will embark upon its five-game November slate on Saturday with its first of three consecutive conference games to open the month when the Tigers host the Louisville Cardinals on Nov. 2. Kickoff at Memorial Stadium in Clemson is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The prime-time contest will be Clemson's third night game at Death Valley this season. Clemson has won 22 straight home night games since 2013, the nation's second-longest active streak

Series History:

• OVERALL: Clemson leads series, 8-0
• HOME: Clemson leads series, 4-0
• ROAD: Clemson leads series, 4-0
• NEUTRAL: N/A
• LAST MEETING: Nov. 12, 2022 (31-16, W)
• STREAK: Clemson, Won 8

Roster:

Rosters will be released by Clemson two hours before kickoff.

Stat of the Week:

Clemson has run out to a 5-0 start in ACC play and has done so convincingly. The Tigers have outscored their conference opponents by a 225-107 mark (+118), good for an average margin of victory of 23.6 points per game. Clemson has the third-highest point differential in conference play in the nation this season, trailing only 7-0 Army and 8-0 Indiana.

Chasing History:

After a disappointing season opener in August, Clemson went 3-0 in the month of September and 3-0 in the month of October. Saturday's game will be Clemson's first of five November games. Last year, Clemson opened its season 4-4 in September and October, but the Tigers won all four games in the month of November amid their season-ending five-game winning streak.

Clemson is 30-4 in games in the month of November since 2015, tied for the second-best November record in the nation. November 2024 will mark the fifth time since 2015 that Clemson has played five games in a single month. Clemson went undefeated in four of its last five five-game months, including 5-0 marks in October 2015, September 2017, September 2018, and October 2020.

Memorable Moments: 

2014: In the first meeting between the two programs, the 3-2 Tigers hosted the 5-1 Cardinals at Death Valley. Clemson led 14-10 at halftime thanks to two nonoffensive touchdowns, including a 72-yard punt return touchdown by Adam Humphries and a fumble recovery in the end zone by Grady Jarrett. Trailing 23-17 late in the fourth quarter, Louisville drove to the Tiger two-yard line, but defensive lineman DeShawn Williams batted away a final Louisville pass to secure the win for Clemson.

2015: Clemson won the first game contested in Louisville between the two schools, earning a 20-17 victory in both schools’ conference opener. Touchdown passes from Deshaun Watson to Hunter Renfrow and Jordan Leggett and two Greg Huegel field goals accounted for Clemson’s 20 points, while an interception by safety Jadar Johnson on the final play of the game sealed the victory for the visiting Tigers.

2016: A charged Memorial Stadium crowd watched an electrifying performance by two Top 5 squads, as No. 5 Clemson recorded a late stop to defeat No. 3 Louisville, 42-36. Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 27-of-44 passes for 295 yards with one touchdown and rushed 31 times for 162 yards with an additional two scores on the ground, while Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 20-of-31 passes for 306 yards with five touchdowns and rushed 14 times for 91 yards. The duo would go on to finish first and second, respectively, for the Heisman Trophy at the end of the season. Trailing by six, Louisville drove all the way down to the Clemson nine. However, on 4th-and-12 from the Clemson 14, defensive back Marcus Edmond knocked receiver James Quick out of bounds one yard shy of the marker, forcing a turnover on downs that preserved the victory for Clemson during the Tigers’ national championship season.

2017: After three nail-biting wins to open the all-time series, Clemson got its first no-doubter in a 47-21 rout of the Cardinals in Louisville. Third-ranked Clemson rolled No. 14 Louisville, piling up 616 yards of offense in a game that was ESPN College GameDay’s featured contest. Kelly Bryant threw for a then-career-high 316 yards in outdueling reigning Heisman Trophy recipient Lamar Jackson, and a young true freshman named Travis Etienne capped the game’s scoring with an 81-yard touchdown run to bring the final total to 47-21.

2018: There was no doubt in 2018, as the eventual national champions scored a season-high 77 points in a 77-16 romp in Death Valley. At the time, the 61-point margin of victory was the Tigers’ largest in school history in conference play, a mark later broken by a 66-point win at Georgia Tech in 2020. The run game powered Clemson offensively, accounting for 492 of its 661 total yards, as Travis Etienne, Lyn-J Dixon and Tavien Feaster each eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark. The Tigers rushed for 13.3 yards per carry, surpassing the program record of 11.8, set earlier in the season at Wake Forest.

2021: Clemson trailed Louisville, 24-17, entering the fourth quarter of a prime-time game on the road. Despite quarterback DJ Uiagalelei being hobbled by a knee injury, the Tigers scored 13 consecutive points with two B.T. Potter field goals bookending an eightyard go-ahead touchdown run by Uiagalelei on a nineplay, 57-yard drive. Trailing by six with 2:19 to play, Louisville drove from its own 25 to the Clemson 2 in only 1:04. Facing first-and-goal from its own two-yard line, Clemson stuffed three consecutive run plays and sacked quarterback Malik Cunningham as he scrambled on fourth down to secure the victory.

Key 1: Shake Shough

Louisville’s quick-strike offense is led by Dr. Tyler Shough. I say that in jest as the Cardinals signal-caller has been in college since January 2018, when he arrived in Oregon. Shough spent three seasons in Eugene before transferring to Texas Tech. After three seasons there, he arrived at Louisville to wrap up his career playing for Jeff Brohm’s squad.

Shough has played in some big-time games, but I’m not sure he’s been in an environment quite like Clemson’s Death Valley—especially at night. But given his experience, rattling the veteran will not be an easy task. T.J. Parker is elite off the edge and has the ability to be disruptive up front. I think this is a game where we hear his name called several times for making a key play.

Clemson’s defense has had its moments of being susceptible to the downfield passing game, and in my opinion, the defensive line has to get Shough seeing ghosts just a few days after Halloween if the Tigers want to keep the Cards below 28 points.

Key 2: Dynamic Duo

I’m all about the workhorse role we’ve seen Phil Mafah thrive in this season. I’ve got more on that coming up in the morning in a separate article, but I still desire to see a good second guy. My feeling all year has been that Jay Haynes will eventually emerge with a breakaway run that ignites the crowd, but that hasn’t come to fruition just yet. Haynes’ longest run of the season is just 19 yards, and he’s only carried the ball 30 times for 151 yards and a score.  To me, that’s not enough touches for the guy you likely have to count on to carry the ball a great deal next season. 

So I’m pushing in hard here that Haynes gets a big play—perhaps two in this game to solidify himself for the remaining games on the schedule. 

Mafah is clearly the man for Clemson, but it feels paramount that Haynes—or another option—emerges soon as the Tigers’ most difficult stretch is upon us. 

Key 3: Slow Down Isaac Brown

Playmakers make plays, and freshman Cardinal running back Isaac Brown fits the description. He’s a quick and shift running back who can find a crease and take advantage. He’s not just a kid who splits one set of defenders either—he can take it to the house if you aren’t careful. 

In this quarterback-dominated era, it can be easy to overlook the impact a game-breaking back can have. Brown averages 7.5 yards per carry this season, but Miami and Notre Dame both limited his impact in wins over Louisville. In fact, against Miami, he totaled just 53 yards, of which 46 came on one run. If you let him get loose, he can put up big numbers, as he proved with 146 yards and two touchdowns against Virginia.

If Wes Goodwin’s defense can keep Brown between 75-100 yards, I think that’s a great sign for the Tigers. If he pushes towards 125+, look out.

Prediction:

Certainly, being off last weekend was great for the Tigers, as they were able to get rested up before tonight’s contest against Louisville. The Cardinals have three losses this season, but the teams' combined records are 22-2, as Notre Dame is 7-1, Miami is 8-0, and SMU is 7-1—so it’s fair to say that they’ve played a much more difficult schedule than Clemson thus far. They are a tested group and won’t back down from the chance to top the Tigers for the first time in program history.

My guess is that the Clemson faithful are fired up to have a game under the lights and that energy will be transferred to the Tiger defense. I think Garrett Rilley continues to dial up the deep ball for Klubnik, and Clemson’s weapons help them pull away in the second half.

Clemson 38, Louisville 20

Swanny’s Record: 7-0

Swanny’s Predictions: 

✅ = Correct Prediction

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