Clemson’s Road to the College Football Playoff: Slim, But Historically Not Impossible
The Clemson Tigers enter the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff rankings at No. 23. As the first CFP rankings of the expanded playoff format roll-out, Clemson faithful find themselves cautiously optimistic, even though a playoff bid remains a long shot. With five weeks of rankings left and a four-game slate to finish out the season, Clemson has a slim but plausible chance to break into the postseason — if all the right dominoes fall their way.
The first way Clemson could slip in is still through the ACC, as either Miami or SMU losing two games in league play would open up the door for Dabo Swinney’s squad to get into the ACC Championship and possibly win the league. At this point, we aren’t banking on that happening, so we look to the first release of the playoff rankings.
Historically, teams ranked in the low 20s during the first CFP release have faced tough odds. But every so often, a few defy expectations. Georgia Tech, in the first season of the CFB Playoffs entered in the second week at No. 24 and pushed to No. 12 by the final rankings.
In the six-week playoff ranking period of 2015, No. 23 North Carolina surged up to No. 10—and did it in just five weeks after not being ranked in Week 1.
The following year, Florida State began at No. 22 and climbed all the way to No. 11, and in 2018, Washington made a similar leap from No. 25 to No. 9—and that was in just five weeks as the Huskies were not ranked in the opening release.
While rare, such late-season climbs give a glimmer of hope for Clemson’s uphill path. But it’ll take a near-perfect combination of consistent wins and fortuitous losses by teams ahead of them to make the leap.
History’s Lessons: Finding a Blueprint for Clemson’s Path
The Tigers’ current No. 23 position mirrors teams like UCLA in 2014 and Southern Cal in 2016, both of which found ways to climb from mid-20s into the top 10. The Bruins ultimately fell short of the top 12, but moved up to No. 8 that season before losing a game. As for USC, they finished at No. 9, well inside the expanded playoff’s reach.
More recent examples, like Oregon State in 2022 or Coastal Carolina in 2019, were similarly competitive but hit ceilings at around No. 14 for the Beavers and No. 12 for the Chants by season’s end. Clemson’s route, therefore, will require more than just steady wins; they’ll need help in the form of ranked teams above them faltering over the next six weeks.
Adding another twist, 2021’s Pitt and Utah teams began outside the rankings but ended up ranked No. 12 and No. 11, respectively, by December. That same season, FSU made a move from outside the rankings all the way up to No. 13. Even last year, Arizona came close starting outside the rankings and pushing up to No. 14.
If Clemson can mirror those programs with a convincing finishing streak, the Tigers might just make a surprise jump into the playoff conversation.
Can Clemson’s Schedule Help?
Clemson’s final four games include at Virginia Tech and No. 18 Pitt and home versus a surging South Carolina team. While wins over these programs won’t carry the weight of others out there, dominant performances could be essential to gain favor in the rankings. After all, Pitt is ranked, and let’s face it, the Gamecocks deserve to be.
The Tigers will also be hoping for some upsets among the top teams in the country, especially in the SEC, Big Ten, and Big-12, where ranked teams are likely to clash in high-stakes games as they close out the season.
In an expanded playoff field, every slip from teams above the Tigers brings Clemson one step closer to contention.
The Path Forward: What Clemson Needs to Stay in the Mix
It’s a simple formula: win out, and hope for chaos ahead. However, given the current competitive landscape, Clemson’s margin for error is non-existent. Losses, even close ones, would end their hopes. As head coach Dabo Swinney rallies his squad to close out with strength, Clemson’s best path forward lies in controlling what they can: finishing the season 10-2. If they succeed, a playoff berth isn’t entirely out of reach — but it will likely come down to the wire, hinging on some upsets and a healthy dose of luck.
Will History Repeat Itself for the Tigers?
The road ahead is steep, but Clemson has seen teams overcome similar odds before. If Clemson can leverage a historic push and close the season on a strong winning streak, they just might find themselves in the playoff picture by December 8th. For now, the Tigers must remain focused on the immediate task: proving they belong in the playoff discussion by earning every win possible. Only time will tell if that effort will be enough to keep their CFB Playoff hopes alive.