Keys to Victory: No. 17 Clemson vs. No. 8 SMU

Each week, we review the game’s history, three keys to success, and Swanny’s prediction.

The Match-Up:

No. 17 Clemson (9-3, 7-1 ACC) vs. No. 8 SMU (11-1, 8-0 ACC)

After a 7-1 regular season record in ACC play this season, Clemson will hope to cap its 2024 conference campaign by earning its 28th overall conference title and extend its ACC record by collecting its 22nd ACC title when the Tigers meet the SMU Mustangs for the first time in program history on Saturday, Dec. 7. Kickoff at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

In addition to seeking Clemson's 28th all-time conference title and 22nd all-time ACC title, a win on Saturday would be expected by most to clinch Clemson's seventh all-time College Football Playoff berth. Clemson's six all-time College Football Playoff berths in the tournament's inaugural decade were second only to Alabama's eight.

Series History:

This is the first meeting between Clemson and SMU in football.

Roster:

Rosters will be released by Clemson two hours before kickoff.

Stat of the Week:

Saturday's ACC Championship Game will be Clemson's conference-record 10th title game appearance. Clemson will become the fifth program ever to appear in 10 conference title games all-time, joining Alabama (15), Florida (13), Oklahoma (12) and Georgia (12, including 2024).

The Tigers have a sterling 8-1 all-time record in ACC Championship Games, including an 8-0 record in their last eight appearances from 2011-22 after losing their ACC Championship Game debut in 2009. Clemson's .889 winning percentage in conference championship games is the second-best nationally among programs who have qualified for at least four conference title games.

Clemson can join Alabama and Oklahoma as the only programs ever to earn a win in nine consecutive conference championship game appearances.

Chasing History:

In 2020, Clemson became the first program ever to win 20 ACC Championships. That year, Clemson became the first program in the conference championship game era to win six straight conference championship games. Clemson also became the first ACC program to win six consecutive outright titles, as Florida State had a streak of nine straight ACC titles, but that streak included two co-championships that prevented Bobby Bowden's Seminoles from ever winning more than three straight titles outright.

Clemson's 2022 ACC title was the program's seventh in eight years, as the Tigers became the first team in an active power conference to win seven outright conference titles in an eight-year span since Alabama won eight SEC titles in nine seasons from 1971-79. Including titles from its days as a member of the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association and Southern Conference, Clemson has 27 conference championships overall, also the most of any current ACC school. Duke ranks second among the ACC's current membership with 18 overall conference titles, including 11 Southern Conference titles and seven ACC titles.

The Tigers won the 1900, 1902 and 1903 SIAA Conference championships under John Heisman, then the 1906 SIAA title under Bob Williams. Clemson also won the 1940 and 1948 Southern Conference titles under Frank Howard. Howard won eight total conference titles, including two in the Southern Conference and six in the ACC. Swinney matched Howard with his eighth conference title in 2022 and can surpass the legend with a win in the 2024 ACC Championship Game.

ACC Championship History: 

2009: Clemson first played in the ACC Championship Game in 2009 when Georgia Tech defeated Clemson, 39- 34. Both teams rushed for over 300 yards in the game, which was the only FBS game in 2009 in which both teams had at least 300 yards rushing. It remains the only game in Clemson history in which neither team punted. C.J. Spiller rushed for 233 yards, scored four touchdowns and had 301 all-purpose yards, all of which remain ACC Championship game records. He was named the game’s MVP, the only time a player from the losing team has been honored.

2011: Clemson won the title two years later with a 38-10 win over Virginia Tech in 2011. Virginia Tech was ranked third in the coaches poll entering the game, and the victory tied for the highest-ranked team Clemson had defeated at the time. Clemson has since broken that mark with multiple defeats of both No. 2 Ohio State and No. 1 Alabama. Tajh Boyd had three touchdown passes and another on the ground to account for four of Clemson’s five touchdowns on the night. The Tigers boasted a balanced attack that recorded 217 yards rushing and 240 yards passing to earn Clemson’s first ACC Championship since 1991.

2015: The Tigers defeated North Carolina, 45-37, for the championship, a victory that gave Clemson a 13-0 record and its first College Football Playoff berth. North Carolina was 11-1 and ranked eighth in the nation entering the game. Deshaun Watson led a Clemson offense that gained 608 yards in 98 plays, including 319 rushing yards and 289 passing yards. Watson completed 26-of-42 passes for 289 yards and three scores. He also had 131 yards rushing on 24 attempts and two rushing touchdowns. Wayne Gallman had 187 yards on 28 attempts to lead Clemson’s ground game. Artavis Scott had seven catches for 96 yards and a score. Gallman also had a career-high 68 receiving yards, giving him 255 all-purpose yards.

2016: Clemson won the 2016 ACC Championship Game in Orlando over Virginia Tech with a 42-35 victory. Clemson was ranked third in the nation entering that game and Virginia Tech was 19th. Watson helped bolster his case as a Heisman finalist by accounting for five touchdowns in the victory, including three passing touchdowns among his 23-of-34 passing performance for 288 yards while adding 17 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

2017: Top-ranked Clemson won its third straight ACC title in 2017, defeating the No. 7 Miami Hurricanes, 38-3, in Charlotte. Offensively, the Tigers were sparked by quarterback Kelly Bryant, who completed his first 15 passes for 164 yards and finished the game with 252 yards and one passing touchdown on a career-high 23 completions to earn MVP honors. The Clemson defense held Miami to just 22 yards of offense in the first quarter and 214 for the whole game, and it also forced three Hurricane turnovers in the third quarter alone.

2018: Clemson became the first ACC team ever to win four straight outright conference titles, winning the 13th game of its 15-0 national championship season with a 42-10 win against Pitt. Clemson opened the game with a 75-yard Travis Etienne touchdown run on the game’s opening play from scrimmage, giving Clemson a 7-0 lead 13 seconds into the game. Etienne finished the game with 156 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries to earn MVP honors. Defensively, Clemson held the Pitt offense in check, limiting Kenny Pickett and the Panthers to just eight passing yards for the whole game, while offensively quarterback Trevor Lawrence completed 12-of-24 pass attempts for 118 yards with a pair of touchdown tosses to Tee Higgins, who finished the game with 36 yards and those two scores on three receptions.

2019: Clemson trounced No. 22 Virginia, 62-17, in 2019 to become the first team in college football history to win five straight conference championship games. Trevor Lawrence set an ACC Championship Game record with four touchdown passes, three of which went to MVP Tee Higgins. Clemson built a 31-7 halftime lead, scoring on its first five possessions, en route to an ACC Championship Game-record 62 points and 619 total yards. Lawrence finished 16-of-22 and 302 passing yards. Higgins finished with three touchdown receptions, and 182 receiving yards, each setting an ACC Championship Game record. Travis Etienne added for 114 rushing yards and one touchdown on the night.

2020: No. 3 Clemson avenged an earlier road loss to Notre Dame by a score of 34-10 to win its sixth straight outright ACC title. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who did not play in Clemson’s November loss to Notre Dame, completed 25-of-36 passes for 322 yards and two touchdowns to go along with a 34-yard touchdown run. Etienne ran for 124 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown, marking the fourth ACC Championship in which he had scored. The offense combined for 541 total yards, and the Tigers’ defense held the Fighting Irish to just 263 yards and sacked quarterback Ian Book six times. James Skalski, who became the first player to ever appear in five ACC Championships, recorded a sack and five total tackles.

2022: Big performances in all three phases of the game gave No. 10 Clemson a decisive 39-10 victory over No. 22 North Carolina (9-4) to claim the 2022 ACC Championship at Bank of America Stadium. Clemson (11-2) claimed its seventh conference championship in the past eight years and became the first program to win 21 ACC titles.

Key 1: Spread the Mustangs

I really believe that the return of Tyler Brown is going to have an impact on this game. We don’t really know how healthy he is, but Dabo Swinney gave a little smirk when he was asked about Brown and other players coming into tonight’s game.

With Brown, Antonio Williams, T.J. Moore, and Bryant Wesco as options in the passing game, my hope is that the Tigers can play with more unique spread formations than we’ve seen this year. Insert Jake Briningstool and the other tight ends into the mix, and I really think there is a chance that Clemson can alleviate the stress SMU brings with their defensive line by having Cade Klubnik get the ball out quickly to their playmakers.

Key 2: Fill the Void

Phil Mafah clearly isn’t healthy. The Tiger running back has seemed reluctant to really lower his head and power his way to additional yards. With that, Garrett Riley needs to figure out a way to work around Mafah’s issues. I think spreading out SMU, as mentioned above, can help with that, allowing Klubnik to utilize rushing lanes that open up by forcing the Mustangs to cover more on the back end. 

Additionally, I hope we will see more of Jay Haynes, along with options for Williams or Brown on the speed sweep. The Tigers need to be able to run the football, but I’m not sure they can count on Mafah being the man. 

Key 3:  Contain KJ

Kevin Jennings presents the Tigers with another quarterback who can make plays with this arm and can debilitate you with his legs. Jennings entered the season as the backup to Preston Stone, but once he was given the keys to SMU’s offense, things took off for the Mustangs. 

Last weekend against South Carolina, Clemson couldn't slow Gamecock quarterback LaNorris Sellers and really never figured it out. After a 38-yard gallop on a broken play on the opening drive, the hope was that the Tigers could tame Sellers' ability to make chicken salad out of chicken giblets. Instead, it was Sellers who cooked up a W with a similar scamper to the endzone to win the game.

Having that taste left in their mouths, if Wes Goodwin is the guru we were sold when he was hired—and I called it the most unconventional hire you could imagine, given Clemson’s profile—then the Tigers should be well prepared to eliminate Jenning's legs from the conversation. 

If they fail to do that or look ill-prepared this weekend, I’ll join the camp of those who believe Goodwin is in over his head.

Prediction:

I feel pretty confident in these next two statements: Clemson is the best team from top to bottom that SMU has faced this season. The Mustangs are not the best team that the Tigers have faced. That fact alone doesn’t translate to a win for Clemson, but I do think it’s a decided advantage. 

Last weekend, the Tigers suffered a disappointing loss to South Carolina, but the way that game played out and how good the Gamecocks have been in the final six weeks of the season should indicate Clemson’s prowess, as the Tigers absolutely left points on the table, in the 17-14 loss.

Now, if the Tigers can play that same way this weekend—and capitalize on scoring chances, I think the Kings of the ACC will own the Queen City once again.

Clemson 31, SMU 21

Swanny’s Record: 10-2

Swanny’s Predictions: 

✅ = Correct Prediction

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