Keys to Victory: 12-Seed Clemson vs. 5-Seed Texas

Each week, we review the game’s history, three keys to success, and Swanny’s prediction.

The Match-Up:

No. 12 Clemson (10-3, 7-1 ACC) vs. No. 5 Texas (11-2, 7-1 SEC)

After three years away, Clemson will officially return to the College Football Playoff today, when the 12th-seeded Tigers face the fifth-seeded Texas Longhorns in the first meeting in history between the two powerhouses. Kickoff at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET/3 p.m. CT.

This season, Clemson earned its seventh College Football Playoff berth since the format's inception in 2014. Clemson's seven berths trail only Alabama (eight) for the most in the nation. Clemson Head Coach Dabo Swinney's seven CFP berths are the most of any active coach and one shy of Nick Saban (eight) for the most of any coach all-time.

Series History:

This is the first meeting between Clemson and Texas in football.

Roster:

Rosters will be released by Clemson two hours before kickoff.

Stat of the Week:

Saturday's ACC Championship Game will be Clemson's conference-record 10th title game appearance. Clemson will become the fifth program ever to appear in 10 conference title games all-time, joining Alabama (15), Florida (13), Oklahoma (12) and Georgia (12, including 2024).

The Tigers have a sterling 8-1 all-time record in ACC Championship Games, including an 8-0 record in their last eight appearances from 2011-22 after losing their ACC Championship Game debut in 2009. Clemson's .889 winning percentage in conference championship games is the second-best nationally among programs who have qualified for at least four conference title games.

Clemson can join Alabama and Oklahoma as the only programs ever to earn a win in nine consecutive conference championship game appearances.

Chasing History:

Clemson is attempting to earn its highest-ranked road win in school history. To date, Clemson's 21 highest-ranked wins in school history have come in 15 neutral site games and six home games. A win against AP No. 3 Texas would surpass Clemson's wins against eighth-ranked North Carolina in 1981 and eighth-ranked Miami (Fla.) in 2009 as the Tigers' highest-ranked road win according to AP Poll rankings.

CFB Playoff History: 

From 2014-23, Clemson cemented itself as one of the College Football Playoff's powerhouses of the tournament's inaugural decade. In the 10-year history of the four-team format prior to 2024, only 15 programs earned at least one College Football Playoff berth, and Clemson ranked second in CFP berths, CFP title game appearances, total CFP wins and CFP titles. Clemson returned to the College Football Playoff in 2024 in the format's first year of expansion to 12 teams and is now one berth shy of Alabama (eight) for the most in history.

College Football Playoff Berths

1. Alabama (8)
2. Clemson (7)
3. Ohio State (6)
4. Georgia, Oklahoma (4)
5. Michigan, Notre Dame (3)
6. Oregon, Texas, Washington (2)

College Football Playoff National Championship Game Berths

1. Alabama (6)
2. Clemson (4)
3. Georgia (3)
4. Ohio State (2)
5. LSU, Michigan, Oregon, TCU, Washington (1)

Most Wins in the College Football Playoff

1. Alabama (9)
2. Clemson (6)
3. Georgia (5)
4. Ohio State (3)
5. LSU (2)
6. Michigan (2)
7. Oregon, TCU, Washington (1)

College Football Playoff Titles

1. Alabama (2015, 2017, 2020) | 3
2. Clemson (2016, 2018), Georgia (2021, 2022) | 2
3. Michigan (2023), LSU (2019), Ohio State (2014) | 1

Key 1: Passing Test

Texas has one of the top-ranked defenses in multiple categories, especially against the pass. Conventional wisdom would say to avoid the Longhorns’ biggest strength, but in my estimation, this is the time to push the ball with a creative downfield passing game. Garrett Riley’s offense has had some great moments, but even he admitted this week that he didn’t keep the throttle down.

Passing game coordinator Kyle Richardson and Riley certainly have their hands full, but if Clemson can make several big plays through the air, I think it will stun Texas. I recognize that Texas has played a slate of SEC games, but there is no doubt that Clemson has the best passing attack they’ve seen. 

Key 2: Be Bigger in Texas

Clemson needs to slow Texas’ ability to rush the football and that will start with Clemson’s interior defensive line. For most of the season, Peter Woods played on the edge, but now the Tigers have moved him back inside, which should be a big deal. With everyone on that defensive front having a couple of weeks to heal and rest, the expectations for Nick Eason and Chris Rumph’s group should be to get their best effort in Austin.

Defensive end T.J. Moore has been a menace, but the Tigers need more plays made in the run game. If Clemson can contain and limit big plays on the ground, the odds that they bring home a Texas-sized win increase.

Key 3:  Homecoming

The storyline of Cade Klubnik returning to his hometown to face off with multiple former teammates from high school and college is a script written for Hollywood—now it’s time for the junior quarterback to stamp his signature on this season.

Klubnik enters the game with 40 total touchdowns offset by just five interceptions, and minimizing the turnovers is likely the difference. We’ve seen Klunbnik take a huge step forward this season, and I think everyone, Klubnik included, is more confident even when things might not be going his way—and that’s huge.

It would be great to play a perfectly clean game, but I doubt that happens. The bigger measure will be how he responds, and I think he’s ready for this stage. 

Prediction:

I don't know what this game is about, but I’ve felt pretty good about it since day one. I had some initial reservations, but after reviewing Texas’ SEC games and their performances against Georgia, I began to think Clemson has a great chance to win.

Homefield advantage is the thing most people have focused on in this playoff, but what if the visitor comes out swinging and gets the home team on its heels? The Tigers are playing with house money after their playoff hopes seemed dashed after the loss to South Carolina. I expect the Tigers to keep their foot down today on offense and sneak out of Texas with a W.

Clemson 31, Texas 27

Swanny’s Record: 11-2

Swanny’s Predictions: 

✅ = Correct Prediction

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