Florida State's 2025 Outlook: Breaking Down the Seminoles' Over/Under Win Total
Where Do the Seminoles Stand in Year Six Under Mike Norvell?
Coming off a turbulent 2024 campaign, the Florida State Seminoles head into 2025 with lingering questions and a projected win total of 7.5 according to oddsmakers. It’s a line that reflects uncertainty about the quarterback situation, the strength of the Atlantic Coast Conference, and whether Mike Norvell’s program has stalled after showing signs of resurgence just two seasons ago.
Norvell’s position is far from insecure. After all, it wasn’t long ago that FSU went undefeated in the regular season and looked poised for a College Football Playoff berth before quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury. But in 2024, quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei transferred in and under center, the Seminoles struggled again, with and without the former Clemson signal caller. Uiagalelei looked much like the version Clemson fans remember: inconsistent and unable to elevate the team.
Now, with Thomas Castellanos expected to start at quarterback in 2025, the Seminoles turn the page. But does their schedule allow them to regain traction? Or is this a roster still in transition, hoping to keep pace while others in the ACC and SEC surge forward?
Game-by-Game Breakdown: Can FSU Clear 7.5 Wins?
This week on his daily radio show, Swann took a close look at Florida State’s 2025 slate and offered his own projections game-by-game:
Week 1 vs. Alabama (Aug. 30)
The season opener pits FSU against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Doak Campbell Stadium, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Despite the home-field advantage and Nick Saban no longer patrolling the Crimson Tide sideline, Swann sees this as a likely loss for the ‘Noles, especially after Castellanos’ offseason remarks about Saban’s absence possibly giving FSU a better chance—a comment that might only add fuel to Alabama’s fire. The Tide are roughly 15.5-point favorites in advance of the season.
Week 2 vs. East Texas A&M
A guaranteed tune-up game. FSU rolls.
Record: 1-1
Week 3 vs. Kent State
Another expected win at home.
Record: 2-1
Week 4 at Virginia
Florida State heads to Charlottesville to face Tony Elliott’s Cavaliers. Swann expects this to be a relatively straightforward win.
Record: 3-1
Week 5 vs. Miami
This might be the biggest swing game on FSU’s schedule. The Hurricanes have more talent on paper—especially with Carson Beck taking over at quarterback, but Miami has consistently underachieved in clutch moments. For two decades, when the ACC spotlight shines brightest, Miami has folded.
Still, Swann gives Miami the slight edge, predicting a road win for the Canes.
Record: 3-2
Week 6 vs. Pitt
The Seminoles should handle the Panthers at home, but it won’t necessarily be easy. The Panthers’ head coach, Pat Narduzzi, is notorious for having his teams ready to play.
Record: 4-2
Week 7 at Stanford
A long road trip, but FSU should have the talent advantage against a struggling Stanford program.
Record: 5-2
Week 8 vs. Wake Forest
Wake comes to Tallahassee, and this feels like another notch in the win column for Norvell as the Deacons seem like a bit of an unknown at this point with a new coach in place.
Record: 6-2
Week 9 at Clemson (Nov. 8)
The Tigers appear to be ascending once again, and while the game will be clearer in context come November, Swann projects a road loss here as Clemson is projected to be the class of the ACC. Clemson boasts a wealth of talent and experience, positioning the Tigers as one of the top teams in America.
Record: 6-3
Week 10 vs. Virginia Tech
Back home, FSU takes care of business against the Hokies, although this game does give some pause.
Record: 7-3
Week 11 at NC State (Friday night)
This game could be the key to hitting the over. Carter-Finley Stadium is no easy place to play—especially on a Friday night—but Swann gives the slight edge to Florida State in a classic toss-up.
Record: 8-3
Week 12 at Florida
For FSU, the regular season will conclude at Florida’s “Swamp”. It’s a brutal regular-season finale in Gainesville, especially if Norvell’s squad comes up short against their No. 1 rival. With the Gators expected to be improved and the battle always unpredictable, Swann chalks this one up as a loss for the Seminoles on the road.
Final Record: 8-4
Margin for Error: Razor Thin
Swann’s projection of 8-4 means he’d take the over on the 7.5 line—but barely. With toss-up games at NC State and against Miami, it’s entirely possible that FSU could fall to 7-5 or climb to 9-3 depending on how those matchups break.
The real question isn’t just the number of wins. It’s what eight wins actually mean in the bigger picture. If Clemson returns to the playoff along with another ACC school like Miami or SMU, does 8-4 keep Norvell’s program in the national conversation, or does it feel like a step backward? After all, in the games that presented growth opportunities, Alabama, Miami, Clemson, and Florida, the Seminoles would finish 0-4.
In college football, it's not always about how far you've come. Sometimes, it's about how far the teams around you have surged past, and an 8-4 record would be an indication that the Noles have a way to go to get back to where everyone thought they might be after an undefeated regular season in 2023.
