Lowell's Locks: Week One

We made it. After eight months of portal entries, recruiting rankings, spring-game overreactions and coaches insisting everybody is in the best shape of their lives, college football is back.

Week One also means a lot of what we think we know is probably wrong. Oregon looks loaded. Notre Dame looks loaded. LSU assembled a roster that required lawyers to explain. Somewhere, somebody is going to play one good half Saturday and immediately become a Heisman candidate.

Let’s make some picks.

Saturday, September 5:

Kent State at South Carolina (-35.5)

South Carolina should handle Kent State without much trouble. Covering 35.5 is a different question for an offense that averaged 22.7 points per game last season.

LaNorris Sellers is good enough to create some easy scores against this defense, and South Carolina should control the game physically. I’m not ready to assume one offseason fixed everything that made the Gamecock offense such a grind last year, though. Dylan Stewart being doubtful also takes away one of the guys most capable of creating the short fields and defensive scores that help cover a number this big.

I can see South Carolina being up three scores early and never feeling remotely threatened. That works just fine for me.

Lowell’s Lock: Kent State +35.5

Boise State at No. 2 Oregon (-24.5)

There’s a good chance Oregon is one of the best teams in the country. Dante Moore is back, Evan Stewart is healthy and the Ducks once again have enough talent in the front seven to make most offenses miserable.

Boise State is experienced enough to make me nervous about 24.5.

Maddux Madsen has played plenty of football, while Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines give the Broncos a running game capable of chewing clock. The goal here isn’t necessarily to threaten Oregon in the fourth quarter. Boise just needs to avoid the avalanche where 17-7 suddenly becomes 38-7 before you finish making another drink.

I’ve got Oregon winning something in the neighborhood of 38-17.

Lowell’s Lock: Boise State +24.5

Baylor vs. Auburn (-7.5) (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)

I like Auburn here, which has historically been a dangerous place for me to find myself.

Alex Golesh brought Byrum Brown with him from South Florida, and that makes Auburn easier to trust than most teams with a new coaching staff. Brown accounted for 42 touchdowns last season and already knows the offense. Auburn brought over enough familiar pieces with him that I don’t expect this to look like a group meeting each other for the first time.

Baylor’s rebuild around DJ Lagway concerns me more. I still think Lagway can be really good, but losing your top five pass catchers and four offensive line starters is not exactly how you draw up an easy Week One.

Auburn should be able to lean on what it already knows while Baylor figures some things out.

Lowell’s Lock: Auburn -7.5

Sunday, September 6:

Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (-20.5) (Lambeau Field, Green Bay)

Wisconsin at Lambeau is pretty cool. Wisconsin football in general lately has been less cool.

Luke Fickell is 17-21 through three seasons, and the Badgers open with Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph at quarterback. Joseph can run, so I expect Wisconsin to lean on him and the ground game and try to shorten this thing as much as possible.

That plan works until Notre Dame starts creating third-and-long.

If Wisconsin spends the second half asking Joseph to throw them back into the game against this defense, I’m not sure where the points come from. Notre Dame has enough injury concerns that laying 20.5 makes me slightly uncomfortable, but Wisconsin won four games last season for a reason.

Lowell’s Lock: Notre Dame -20.5

No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss (-6.5) (Nissan Stadium, Nashville)

This was the line that jumped out at me.

Ole Miss has one of the best returning backfields in the country. Trinidad Chambliss threw for nearly 4,000 yards last season, Kewan Lacy ran for more than 1,500 and both are back.

Louisville has some dudes too.

Isaac Brown averaged 8.8 yards per carry last year, which remains an absolutely absurd number. Jeff Brohm added Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz at quarterback, and enough returns defensively that Louisville shouldn't need to turn this into a 45-42 shootout to have a chance.

Six-and-a-half points on a neutral field is more respect than I’m willing to give Ole Miss here. The Rebels can win the game and still make me money.

Lowell’s Lock: Louisville +6.5

Saturday Night — Game of the Week

Clemson at No. 11 LSU (-10)

Christopher Vizzina waited three years for this: Saturday night in Tiger Stadium, 100,000 drunk Cajuns, Lane Kiffin, Sam Leavitt and an LSU roster assembled using rules I’m pretty sure didn’t exist when I started this article.

Hell of a first assignment.

Vizzina officially beat out Tait Reynolds, although I’d be surprised if Reynolds doesn’t play. Vizzina looked good in his lone start against SMU last season, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns. Clemson cannot walk into Baton Rouge and ask him to do that for four quarters while throwing it 40 times.

The Tigers have to run the ball, use Vizzina’s legs and manufacture some easy touches for Bryant Wesco and T.J. Moore. Chad Morris was brought back because Clemson desperately needed an offensive identity again. This would be a pretty good night to prove one exists.

We’ve seen the alternative enough: two-yard run, incomplete pass, third-and-long, punt. Do that Saturday and Clemson is going to get its doors blown off.

LSU presents enough problems without any help. Sam Leavitt is healthy, talented and now has Lane Kiffin designing an offense around him. Clemson being without Vic Burley makes an already difficult matchup worse.

What I’m not sure about is LSU’s focus.

The final weeks of camp have included lawsuits, eligibility fights, arguments with the SEC and seemingly daily questions about who can actually play. Players have said it isn’t a distraction. Maybe they’re right. College kids are sometimes much better at ignoring chaos than the adults covering them.

Still, I’d rather spend game week talking about Clemson’s defense than injunctions.

Clemson needs to make that matter early. LSU wants Saturday night to turn into a party. A couple of Clemson stops and one long scoring drive changes the mood quickly, especially for a team carrying this much expectation into the opener.

That’s ultimately why I can’t get to ten.

There are plenty of reasons to like LSU outright. Baton Rouge at night is a miserable place for Vizzina to make his second career start, Clemson’s offensive line and running game still have plenty to prove and Leavitt is easily the more established quarterback.

Clemson also has enough talent to make this uncomfortable. Wesco can flip the field with one touch. T.J. Moore gives Vizzina another real weapon. Sammy Brown could be the best defensive player on the field, and Will Heldt gives Clemson somebody capable of getting Leavitt on the ground.

LSU spent the offseason collecting expectations along with players. Clemson shows up with a new quarterback, a new-old offensive coordinator and almost nobody nationally expecting it to win.

I kind of like that spot.

LSU 27, Clemson 20

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson +10