Lowell's Locks: Week Two

Lowell’s Locks: Week Two

Week One finished 3-3, which could have been worse.

Boise State, Notre Dame and Louisville got us home. Auburn won by one as a 7.5-point favorite, which would have been useful if this column were called Lowell’s Moneylines. South Carolina responded to my skepticism by beating Kent State 57-0.

Then there was Clemson. Last week I wrote that I couldn’t get to LSU -10. LSU won by 41.

We move.

Saturday, September 12

No. 11 Oklahoma at Michigan (+5.5)

Michigan needed a Hail Mary to beat Western Michigan last week. That sentence is doing most of the work for me here.

Bryce Underwood finished with 170 yards, Michigan scored 13 points and the offense spent most of the afternoon looking completely lost. Now Brent Venables and an Oklahoma defense that just pitched a shutout are coming to town.

Oklahoma had no such problems against UTEP. The Sooners won 51-0, John Mateer threw three touchdowns, and the game was essentially over by halftime.

Normally I hate chasing a line after this much movement. Michigan hasn’t shown me enough to make me stop.

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma -5.5

No. 12 Alabama at Kentucky (+10.5)

Kentucky beating Youngstown State 45-13 isn’t going to convince me they’re ready to win the SEC. It did make 10.5 points at home a lot more interesting.

Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey threw for 301 yards and four touchdowns in Will Stein’s debut, and Kentucky topped 500 yards of offense. Alabama is obviously a different problem, but the Wildcats at least looked like a team that knows what it wants to do offensively.

Alabama handled East Carolina 48-10, though the Tide head to Lexington without starting right guard Michael Carroll and have been dealing with injuries in the secondary.

Kentucky doesn’t have to be better than Alabama for this pick to work. If Minchey keeps the offense functional and the Wildcats avoid getting buried early, 10.5 gives us some room.

Lowell’s Lock: Kentucky +10.5

Arizona at No. 15 BYU (-7.5)

I spent most of the offseason wondering what Arizona would look like around Noah Fifita.

Pretty good, apparently.

Fifita threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns in a 35-7 win over Northern Arizona, and the Wildcats added 206 yards on the ground. BYU was even more dominant, beating Utah Tech 63-7 and letting Bear Bachmeier enjoy most of the second half from the sideline.

Neither final score tells me much. The spread does.

Fifita gives Arizona an experienced quarterback in a hostile environment, and the Wildcats ran the ball well enough last week that BYU shouldn’t be able to spend the entire afternoon hunting him. BYU is also missing starting safety Raider Damuni, while Sione Moa and Jackson Nye are expected to be out.

BYU probably wins this game. Seven and a half is still more than I want to give Arizona.

Lowell’s Lock: Arizona +7.5

Towson at South Carolina (-43.5)

Me last week: South Carolina can’t be trusted to cover 35.5.

South Carolina: 57-0.

Towson comes to Columbia after allowing Navy to run for 506 yards. South Carolina just averaged more than seven yards per carry against Kent State and finished with 645 yards of offense.

Forty-three and a half is a stupid number. One garbage-time touchdown can destroy the whole thing, and betting this many points with anybody usually feels like asking for trouble.

South Carolina made my argument against them look pretty dumb last week, though, so I’ll give them another chance to embarrass somebody.

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina -43.5

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas (-1.5)

If you watched Ohio State and Texas last week hoping to learn which one is better, congratulations. You learned nothing.

Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3. Texas beat Texas State 59-7. Both quarterbacks threw for more than 300 yards, both offenses topped 500 and neither game lasted long enough to tell us much.

Texas gets this one at home, Arch Manning looked excellent and Cam Coleman immediately gave him another problem for defenses to deal with.

Ohio State also happens to be No. 1, has beaten Texas twice in less than two years and still has Jeremiah Smith.

At some point I’m just taking the points with the team I think might be better.

Lowell’s Lock: Ohio State +1.5

Georgia Southern at Clemson (-20.5)

Clemson got outgained 644-145 last week.

I’m not dressing that up.

The Tigers managed eight first downs against LSU, went 1-of-13 on third down, ran for 40 yards, and never sacked Sam Leavitt. Christopher Vizzina threw a pick-six; Tait Reynolds eventually got a shot, and none of it mattered.

It was an ass-kicking.

Now Clemson comes home favored by nearly three touchdowns against a Georgia Southern team that just won 31-0. Georgia Southern’s opponent was Charleston Southern, so 513 yards of offense doesn’t suddenly make the Eagles a playoff team, but they did exactly what they were supposed to do. Max Johnson threw for 281 yards, the defense had six sacks and Charleston Southern finished with 117 total yards.

Clemson, meanwhile, has some things to figure out.

The defensive line remains thin. Markus Strong is expected to miss the rest of the season, and Vic Burley still isn’t back. The offensive line that was supposed to be fixed just got mauled, the running game disappeared and neither quarterback gave Clemson much of anything once LSU took control.

There’s still a gigantic talent gap here, and Clemson should win the game. Maybe getting back home against a Sun Belt opponent is exactly what this team needs.

I’m not spotting 20.5 points until I see something resembling a functioning offense.

Clemson 34, Georgia Southern 17

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia Southern +20.5