Lowell's Locks: Week Three

Well, so much for 3-3 being our thing.

After opening the season at an even 3-3 against the spread, Week 2 took a step backward. Lowell’s Locks went 2-4, dropping the season record to 5-7.

Not ideal.

Oklahoma -5.5 never really got going in Ann Arbor and lost outright to Michigan, 17-10. Kentucky +10.5 looked great for a half, even taking a 17-13 lead on Alabama into the locker room, and then got outscored 32-0 after halftime.

Arizona +7.5 was another one that looked promising early. The Wildcats led BYU at the half before getting shut out over the final two quarters in a 28-17 loss.

Then there was South Carolina -43.5. The Gamecocks beat Towson 45-9, which would normally be the kind of score you look at and assume cashed easily.

Nope.

The two wins came from Ohio State +1.5 and Georgia Southern +20.5. Ohio State lost a heartbreaker to Texas 24-23 but stayed inside the number, while Georgia Southern hung around enough in a 22-7 loss to Clemson.

So, 2-4.

Let's try this again.

Saturday, September 19

Florida State at No. 10 Alabama (-18.5)

Normally, 18.5 points in a game between Alabama and Florida State would have me searching pretty hard for reasons to take the underdog.

I can't find enough of them.

Florida State forced four turnovers against SMU last week and still lost. The Seminoles were outgained 585-324, managed just 125 yards through the air and went 2-for-15 on third down. Now they have to go into Tuscaloosa against an Alabama defense that just held Kentucky to 209 total yards and one third-down conversion.

That's the problem for me. Florida State can run the ball, but I don't trust Ashton Daniels and this passing game enough to keep drives alive when Alabama forces obvious passing situations.

On the other side, Alabama looked much more like the team everyone expected last week. Kentucky ran for only 63 yards, went 1-for-14 on third down and didn't score after halftime.

Eighteen and a half is a lot. I know that.

I also don't think Florida State can go on the road and hang with Alabama for four quarters.

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama -18.5

No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville (-1.5)

The more I dug into this game, the more I moved toward SMU.

Louisville can absolutely blow up this pick with explosives. That's what the Cardinals do well. But SMU has been the better down-to-down offense, and Kevin Jennings has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country so far. His ability to extend plays is especially important against a Louisville defense that wants to create pressure and force mistakes.

SMU also gives me more confidence on third down and in pass protection. Louisville has a path here, especially at home, but I think more of its case depends on generating chunk plays.

If this becomes a game where both teams have to string together drives instead of trading explosives, I want Jennings.

SMU also beat Louisville 38-6 last season. I'm not treating that as predictive by itself, but it doesn't exactly make me more eager to lay points with the Cardinals.

Lowell’s Lock: SMU +1.5

Florida (-2.5) at Auburn

I keep trying to find the Auburn argument and I can't.

Florida hasn't played anybody especially impressive, so I'm not ready to declare the Gators good. They have at least looked functional. Auburn hasn't. That's really what this comes down to.

The offensive line still worries me with Auburn, and I don't trust the Tigers enough offensively to assume Jordan-Hare fixes everything. Byrum Brown can create problems with his legs, and that's probably the part of the matchup that scares me most. But Auburn already burned me once this year, and I'm not going back just because they're at home.

I've watched both teams. My eyes tell me Florida.

Lowell’s Lock: Florida -2.5

No. 7 LSU (-3) at No. 8 Ole Miss

Louisville put up 469 yards on Ole Miss.

That's pretty much where I started.

The Cardinals threw for 307 and ran for another 162, and the passing number probably undersells how bad some of it looked. There were receivers running free all over the field. Louisville had multiple explosives and came within a last-second field goal of winning the game.

Now Ole Miss gets LSU.

The Tigers have more talent outside, and there is also the obvious coaching familiarity here. Lane Kiffin and his staff know Pete Golding's defense very well. If Louisville found holes in that secondary, I trust LSU to find them too.

Then there's whatever we're calling the Sam Leavitt situation.

Leavitt showed no obvious sign of being hurt against Louisiana Tech, suddenly appeared as doubtful during the week, then returned to practice and was upgraded to questionable. Maybe he's legitimately hurting. Back spasms can happen.

I also don't trust Lane. Apparently Ole Miss doesn't either.

And even if Leavitt doesn't play, I'm not completely terrified of LSU's quarterback situation. Landen Clark has actually been a full-season college starter. Husan Longstreet was a five-star and has the arm to make Ole Miss pay if those coverage busts happen again.

Obviously neither is Leavitt, and making your first meaningful start in this particular version of Oxford would be brutal. Lane's return is going to turn that stadium into a zoo.

But I'm not picking a crowd. I'm picking LSU against a defense I watched Louisville shred.

Lowell’s Lock: LSU -3

Mississippi State at South Carolina (-3.5)

Kamario Taylor is a freak. That's not deep analysis. I just really like watching the kid play.

Then you look at what he actually did at Minnesota and it gets harder to dismiss this as early-season hype. Taylor went 16-for-22 for 227 yards and three touchdowns, then added another 86 yards on the ground. Mississippi State went into a Big Ten stadium and won 38-13. They didn't sneak out of there either. They were up 28-6 at halftime.

Now Taylor gets his first SEC game in Williams-Brice, which is a completely different test. South Carolina has athletes on defense that Minnesota doesn't, and that stadium is going to make communication a lot harder on a young quarterback.

But South Carolina still has to tackle him.

And I'm not sold enough on the Gamecocks' offense to lay more than a field goal. The offensive line has shown enough problems through two games that I don't trust South Carolina to just lean on Mississippi State all afternoon and control the game.

If Taylor can keep the Bulldogs out of obvious passing downs, his legs create exactly the kind of problem that can turn a normal defensive win into a 25-yard gain.

Maybe South Carolina wins. Give me 3.5.

Lowell’s Lock: Mississippi State +3.5

North Carolina at Clemson (-3.5)

I can’t believe I'm doing this again.

Clemson's offense has been miserable. The offensive line might be the worst I've seen at Clemson in years. A team that came into the season expecting to be much better than this is now trying to prove it can string together first downs.

But I'm taking Clemson. Part of that is Tait Reynolds. He brings the “juice” Chad Morris has been searching for.

I'm not expecting him to suddenly turn Clemson into an elite offense. What I do think he can do is give it an identity. His legs put the quarterback run game back on the table, which changes the numbers in the box and should make life easier on a running game that desperately needs it. Chris Johnson Jr. also makes a lot more sense in that kind of offense, where Clemson can use the read game, quick throws and movement instead of asking the offensive line to hold up forever.

At this point, functional would be a massive improvement.

The bigger reason I like Clemson, though, is on the other side of the ball.

North Carolina loves the short passing game. They want to get the ball out quickly, work underneath and let their receivers create after the catch.

Clemson has been sitting on that stuff.

I watched Clemson sit on the short stuff time and time again last week as the GA Southern offense attempted to neutralize the front seven. They came within a fingertip multiple times of a pick-six. Against a team that's willing to live there on offense, I think Clemson eventually gets one.

So here's the bold prediction. Clemson gets a defensive score.

Not just an interception or a fumble. The defense takes matters into its own hands on one of these passes.

That matters to the score prediction too, because I'm not asking Clemson's offense to suddenly go produce four touchdowns. If the defense gets seven itself, creates a short field somewhere else and Reynolds gives Clemson enough of a quarterback run threat to sustain a few drives, 27 points becomes a lot more realistic.

And despite everything we've watched through two weeks, I'm going with the Tigers.

Clemson 27, North Carolina 14

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson -3.5

Week 3 Card: Alabama -18.5, SMU +1.5, Florida -2.5, LSU -3, Mississippi State +3.5, Clemson -3.5.