NCAA Tournament Win Probabilities for Clemson
Clemson will face New Mexico State in San Diego at 9:57 p.m. EST Friday in their first NCAA Tournament game since 2011.
How do the Tigers stack up against the Aggies from Las Cruces? What are the odds that Clemson can advance through the tourney?
Probabilities:
| Round of 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Make Final | Champion |
| 73.8% | 40.5% | 16.3% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
In effect, ESPN is giving the Tigers a 73.8% chance of defeating New Mexico State on Friday and a 40.5% chance of winning two games over the weekend to advance to the Sweet 16.
Over on warrennolan.com there are two different predictive methods with two different outcomes:
| Type | Winner | Probability | Score |
| Resid | New Mexico State | 58% | 67-65 |
| ELO | Clemson | 80% | 67-64 |
With a victory on Friday, Clemson would face the winner of Auburn vs. Charleston on Sunday for a spot in the Sweet 16.
New Mexico State is 28-5, went 12-2 in the WAC, won the WAC Tournament title for the 5th consecutive season, is ranked 35th in the RPI and has a strength of schedule ranked 165th.
*RPI and strength of schedule information from realtimerpi.com.
Clemson’s NCAA Tournament History:
| Year | Seed | Round | Opponent | Result |
| 1980 | #6 |
First Round |
#11 Utah State |
W 76–73 |
| 1987 | #4 |
First Round |
#13 SW Missouri State |
L 60–65 |
| 1989 | #9 |
First Round |
#8 Saint Mary's #1 Arizona |
W 83–70 |
| 1990 | #5 |
First Round |
#12 BYU #4 La Salle #1 Connecticut |
W 49–47 |
| 1996 | #9 |
First Round |
#8 Georgia |
L 74–81 |
| 1997 | #4 |
First Round |
#13 Miami (OH) #5 Tulsa #1 Minnesota |
W 68–56 |
| 1998 | #6 |
First Round |
#11 Western Michigan |
L 72–75 |
| 2008 | #5 |
First Round |
#12 Villanova |
L 69–75 |
| 2009 | #7 |
First Round |
#10 Michigan |
L 59–62 |
| 2010 | #7 |
First Round |
#10 Missouri |
L 78–86 |
| 2011 | #12 |
First Four |
#12 UAB #5 West Virginia |
W 70–52 |
| 2018 | #5 | First Round | #12 New Mexico State | ? |
