Lowell's Locks: Week Four

Apparently 3-3 wasn't done with us.

Week 3 gave us another split, which means The Locks are now 8-10 against the spread on the year. Florida got there. Mississippi State got there. Clemson got there, although Clemson apparently decided I needed to sweat for a while first.

Alabama did not get there. SMU absolutely did not get there. LSU walked into what was probably the most emotionally charged game Ole Miss will play all season and got beat.

So, 8-10.

Could be worse. Would prefer it wasn't.

Saturday, September 26th:

No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee (+4.5)

I keep looking at Texas and thinking the same thing: this is obviously a very good football team, but I don't know that they've looked like the No. 1 team in the country.

The Ohio State win counts. You don't apologize for beating Ohio State. But Texas needed the late comeback to survive that one, then came back the next week and spent long stretches looking completely ordinary against UTSA. Arch Manning finished 16-of-32 for 161 yards, and now he's taking that offense into Neyland.

On the other side is an 18-year-old freshman making his first SEC start against a Texas defense that can absolutely wreck this pick by halftime. That's the part that bothers me. If Tennessee can't run the ball and Faizon Brandon spends the afternoon staring at 3rd-and-8, we're probably cooked.

But Tennessee has run the ball on everybody so far, and the Vols have been more explosive and more efficient offensively than Texas through three weeks. I don't need Brandon to go throw for 350. I need Tennessee to keep him comfortable enough that Josh Heupel can use tempo, lean on the run game and let Neyland do what Neyland does.

Four and a half points feels like a lot in that setting.

Lowell's Lock: Tennessee +4.5

Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (-13.5)

Oklahoma has scored 24 points total in its last two games. That's pretty much where this starts and ends for me.

The Sooners managed 10 at Michigan and then came home and scored 14 against New Mexico. Their defense is good, maybe good enough to keep Georgia from completely running away with this in the first half, but eventually you do have to score.

Georgia doesn't need 45 for this number to work. If the Bulldogs get to 27, Oklahoma needs 14 just to stay within the spread. Georgia gets to 30 and now the Sooners probably need their best offensive performance of the season.

In Athens.

Against Georgia.

Nope.

Lowell's Lock: Georgia -13.5

No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (-3.5)

I hate this line.

Not because I think it's wrong. Because I think it might be telling me something and I'm choosing to ignore it anyway.

Ole Miss just played its Super Bowl. Lane Kiffin came back to Oxford, everybody had been waiting for that game for months, the crowd was insane and the Rebels got the win. Now they have six days to come back down from that and go play in the Swamp.

Florida, meanwhile, is 3-0 and just won at Auburn. Kewan Lacy is banged up. Ole Miss is ranked No. 4 in the country.

And yes, I know the whole "emotional letdown" thing can turn into betting fan fiction if you let it. Teams do occasionally survive being really excited the week before. But this is exactly the kind of spot where I'd normally talk myself into Florida.

Then I remember Trinidad Chambliss exists. He threw for 363 yards against LSU and, more importantly, he never looked overwhelmed when that game got messy. Ole Miss lost momentum, Lacy got hurt, LSU made its run and Chambliss just kept playing.

Maybe Florida wins this game. Honestly, Vegas clearly thinks there's a pretty decent chance.

But you're giving me more than a field goal with the No. 4 team and the quarterback I trust more? Fine, I'll be the sucker.

Lowell's Lock: Ole Miss +3.5

No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (-5.5)

This game is going to be disgusting. Absolutely sicko football.

I cannot wait.

The total is hovering around 38.5, which tells you basically everything you need to know. Iowa is giving up 4.3 points per game. Michigan's defense is also excellent. Michigan's offense, meanwhile, has spent three weeks occasionally looking like somebody unplugged the controller.

Hank Brown is officially the guy for Iowa now. He's been good. This is also his first road start, and Michigan's front is not Northern Iowa's front, so I'm not suddenly pretending the Hawkeyes are going to go hang 30 in the Big House, butI don't think they need to.

My brain keeps coming back to scores like 17-13. Maybe 20-16 if somebody gets crazy. Michigan might be the better team. Michigan might win. Michigan might even control most of the game and still never get far enough away to cover 5.5.

In a game where I'm not sure either team reaches 20, I want the points.

Lowell's Lock: Iowa +5.5

South Carolina at No. 8 Alabama (-12.5)

I originally wanted South Carolina here. LaNorris Sellers getting almost two touchdowns against an Alabama defense that just gave up 36 to Florida State? Easy enough argument to make. Sellers can turn a busted play into 40 yards in a hurry, and Alabama has been giving up those kinds of plays.

Then I started looking at how South Carolina would actually have to survive this game and that's where I bailed.

Sellers had four turnover-worthy plays against Mississippi State and held the ball for more than three seconds on average. South Carolina's offensive line already worries me, and now we're taking that operation into Bryant-Denny for its first road game of the year.

Alabama doesn't even have to completely shut Sellers down. Get South Carolina behind the chains, make the protection communicate in that building, make Sellers hold the ball and wait for something to open.

Eventually, I think he gives them something.

The other problem is that South Carolina just gave up 41 points at home to Mississippi State after leading 16-0. Alabama has been inconsistent defensively, but the offense hasn't had much trouble finding points.

I can see Sellers hanging around for a half. I can also see this being 17-10, then looking up twenty minutes later and it's 34-13.

I'll lay it.

Lowell's Lock: Alabama -12.5

GAME OF THE WEEK: Friday, September 24th

Clemson (-1.5) at California

Yes, the Friday game is last, obviously.

I'm not particularly worried about Clemson flying west. They've been in California since Wednesday, so the whole body-clock angle feels a little overcooked to me. If anything, I'd worry more about the trip back east before Miami next week, and Clemson at least gets an extra day because this game is on Friday.

The injuries bother me more. Corian Gipson is out. Devarrick Woods is out. Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is good enough that losing a starting nickel is not exactly ideal.

I'm still taking Clemson. Mostly because Cal has spent three games telling everybody exactly where to attack them, and it isn't through the air.

Run the dang ball.

Cal is allowing 5.3 yards per carry. Clemson finally got Gideon Davidson rolling against North Carolina, Tait Reynolds gives you another runner defenses have to account for, and that should be the entire starting point for this offense.

Davidson. Tait in the read game. Power. Counter. RPOs off the same action. Make Cal start cheating downhill, then throw it.

What I do not want is Tait dropping back 38 times because Chad Morris got bored. Cal's secondary has been opportunistic, Kingston Lopa already has five interceptions, and this does not need to become some freshman quarterback proving-ground game.

Cal's best offensive trait is its passing game. That's going directly at what I still think is Clemson's best unit, even with Gipson out. Clemson's best offensive matchup is the run game. That's going directly at Cal's biggest weakness.

That one is simpler.

Clemson 27, Cal 21.

Lowell's Lock: Clemson -1.5

Good teams win. Great teams cover.

Week 4 Card: Tennessee +4.5, Georgia -13.5, Ole Miss +3.5, Iowa +5.5, Alabama -12.5, Clemson -1.5.