Well, we followed up a 5-1 week by getting dragged directly back to .500.
Week 5 finished 3-3. Ohio State, Tennessee and Kentucky cashed, while Mississippi State, Florida and Clemson missed. That moves the Locks to 16-14 against the spread through five weeks.
Clemson gets the week off, so we get to shop the national slate.
Saturday, October 10th:
No. 7 Indiana (-7.5) at Nebraska
I wanted Nebraska when I first saw the number. An undefeated home team getting more than a touchdown in Lincoln usually sounds like my kind of bet.
The more I looked at Indiana up front, the less I liked it.
The Hoosiers are averaging more than 250 rushing yards per game, and this isn’t just a couple of backs beating up bad defenses. Indiana has a veteran offensive line that has consistently created easy downs for Josh Hoover, with Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. both capable of taking advantage of it.
Nebraska has allowed only 3.2 yards per carry, but Indiana is a major step up from anything that defense has seen so far. If the Hoosiers are living in second-and-four all afternoon, Nebraska is going to have a hard time getting Hoover into the situations where that crowd can really become a factor.
I talked myself off the home dog.
Lowell’s Lock: Indiana -7.5
Texas A&M at No. 14 Missouri (-3.5)
Maybe I’m buying high.
I’m buying anyway.
Missouri just held Florida to 42 rushing yards while Jamal Roberts went for 211 on the other side. That performance mattered to me because Texas A&M’s best chance here is keeping Marcel Reed out of obvious passing situations.
I don’t think the Aggies have the run game to guarantee that.
If Missouri wins first down and makes Reed consistently beat pressure from the pocket, I like the Tigers’ chances of controlling this game. I don’t need another 45-17 demolition. At home, laying 3.5 feels reasonable.
Lowell’s Lock: Missouri -3.5
South Carolina at No. 16 Florida (-11.5)
This might be the ugliest pick on the card.
South Carolina is 2-3, winless in the SEC and missing several important players in the front seven. Florida should be able to put the ball in Jadan Baugh’s hands and make that depleted defense prove it can hold up.
And yet, I still don’t want to lay 11.5 against LaNorris Sellers.
South Carolina put up 419 yards on Alabama and 458 against Kentucky. The Gamecocks’ problem hasn’t been an inability to move the football; it has been turnovers, missed opportunities and a defense that keeps putting them in bad spots.
Florida’s secondary gives Sellers a chance to keep this uncomfortable. He doesn’t have to pull the upset. He just has to create enough explosives with his arm and legs to keep Florida from getting three scores clear.
I can see Florida winning 34-27 and still spending the fourth quarter trying to put the game away.
Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina +11.5
No. 1 Texas (-7.5) vs. Oklahoma
Georgia showed me everything I needed to see about Oklahoma.
The Sooners’ defense can play. It can keep games manageable for stretches and give Oklahoma chances to hang around.
Then the offense goes back onto the field.
Oklahoma turned it over four times against Georgia, gave the Bulldogs short fields and eventually watched a competitive defensive effort turn into a 41-13 loss. John Mateer has been one of the biggest quarterback disappointments in the country, and an already shaky offensive line now has to deal with Texas.
That’s why I’m willing to lay the touchdown in Red River. Texas doesn’t need Arch Manning to throw for 350. Get into the mid-20s, avoid giving Oklahoma free points and let the Sooners prove they can generate enough offense to stay within one score.
I don’t think they can.
Lowell’s Lock: Texas -7.5
No. 21 UCLA at No. 13 Oregon (-11.5)
Maybe I still have PTSD from watching Drew Mestemaker shred Oregon’s defense.
I’m okay with that.
UCLA is undefeated, can run the football and is getting nearly two touchdowns against an Oregon team that will start Dylan Raiola with Dante Moore unavailable.
I don’t need UCLA to win. I just need the Bruins to keep running the ball and make Oregon earn every possession. Autzen is still a miserable place to play, but I don’t trust the Ducks’ defense enough to assume they put UCLA away if the Bruins can keep the game on schedule.
Oregon 31, UCLA 24 works just fine.
Lowell’s Lock: UCLA +11.5
No. 15 Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas
This one comes down to DeSean Bishop.
He ran for 220 yards and three touchdowns against Auburn last week. Now he gets an Arkansas defense that has struggled against the run, while Tennessee turns the offense over to George MacIntyre for his first start.
MacIntyre doesn’t have to be spectacular here. If Bishop keeps producing on early downs, Tennessee can keep the playbook manageable and avoid asking its new quarterback to do too much.
I don’t love laying 13.5 with a first-time starter, but if Bishop gets Tennessee into the red zone often enough, Arkansas hasn’t shown me it can keep pace.
Lowell’s Lock: Tennessee -13.5
Good teams win. Great teams cover.
Week 6 Card: Indiana -7.5, Missouri -3.5, South Carolina +11.5, Texas -7.5, UCLA +11.5, Tennessee -13.5.
Lowell’s Locks |
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| Weekly Results | Season Results | |
| Week 1 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Week 2 | 2-4 | 5-7 |
| Week 3 | 3-3 | 8-10 |
| Week 4 | 5-1 | 13-11 |
| Week 5 | 3-3 | 16-14 |
| Week 6 | ||
| Week 7 | ||
| Week 8 | ||
| Week 9 | ||
| Week 10 | ||
| Week 11 | ||
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 | ||
