Lowell's Locks: Week Seven

Another 3-3 week.

Missouri handled Texas A&M, while South Carolina and UCLA both did us one better and won outright as underdogs. Indiana survived Nebraska but didn’t cover, Oklahoma ruined our Texas pick, and Tennessee beat Arkansas by only seven.

That moves the Locks to 19-17 against the spread on the season.

South Carolina gets the weekend off. Clemson does not.

Let’s get into it.

Saturday, October 17th:

No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 5 Indiana:

I don’t know if Indiana wins this game.

I do know which side of this number I want.

Ohio State is probably the more talented team, and Jeremiah Smith presents a problem Indiana simply hasn’t seen yet. But asking the Buckeyes to go into Bloomington and win by more than a field goal against an Indiana team that has won 22 straight is a different proposition.

Ohio State will also be without starting offensive lineman Austin Siereveld and running back Ja’Kobi Jackson. That’s not ideal against an Indiana team that wants to run the ball, shorten the game and keep Josh Hoover out of obvious passing situations.

Maybe Ohio State wins 27-24.

Works for me.

Lowell’s Lock: Indiana +3.5

No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 LSU (-16):

Kamario Taylor being out changed this pick.

Taylor’s legs force a defense to account for the quarterback on every read. Take him away and LSU can play Mississippi State’s run game much more conventionally instead of worrying about Taylor pulling the ball and getting outside the box.

Leading rusher Fluff Bothwell is also questionable. If he’s limited or unavailable, Mississippi State is asking a backup quarterback to generate offense in Death Valley without much help from the two players who normally put the most stress on a defense.

LSU hasn’t been consistent enough for me to love laying 16 under normal circumstances. This isn’t a normal version of the Mississippi State offense.

Lowell’s Lock: LSU -16

No. 6 Alabama (-7.5) at No. 14 Tennessee:

I’m buying the Alabama bounce back.

Tennessee can make this annoying if DeSean Bishop runs the way he has the last two weeks. He went for 220 against Auburn and 138 against Arkansas, and Georgia just showed that Alabama can be moved on the ground.

The question is what happens when Bishop gets stuffed on first down.

George MacIntyre threw two interceptions in his first start against Arkansas. Against Alabama, a couple of second-and-10s can quickly turn into third-and-long, and that’s where I think this game starts tilting toward the Tide. Alabama doesn’t have to dominate Bishop for four quarters. It just has to make MacIntyre beat them often enough.

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama -7.5

No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss (-5.5)

We’ve ridden Missouri for two straight weeks.

I’m not getting off yet.

Jamal Roberts has gone over 200 yards in back-to-back games, and Ole Miss has had trouble getting teams off schedule on the ground. If Missouri is getting five or six yards with Roberts on first down, Austin Simmons doesn’t have to spend the afternoon trading throws with Trinidad Chambliss.

That’s important, because I’d rather not play that game.

Chambliss can hurt Missouri’s secondary if Ole Miss gets into rhythm, especially if the Tigers have to start bringing extra bodies forward. Missouri’s best answer is making sure he spends long stretches watching Roberts chew clock from the sideline.

Missouri doesn't have to be the better team to cover five and a half.

Lowell’s Lock: Missouri +5.5

No. 2 Notre Dame (-10.5) at No. 8 BYU

Notre Dame’s ground game is the part of this matchup I keep coming back to.

BYU has defended the run well, but the Irish are coming off 241 rushing yards against North Carolina and 361 against Stanford. They’re comfortable winning games without putting everything on CJ Carr.

BYU has a much harder problem on the other side. LJ Martin is out, leaving Bear Bachmeier with even more responsibility in the run game. His mobility is dangerous, but Notre Dame can devote more attention to him without having to account for Martin beside him.

BYU may need Bachmeier to do almost everything offensively to keep pace with Notre Dame. That’s a huge ask against this defense.

Lowell’s Lock: Notre Dame -10.5

Charleston Southern at Clemson (-43.5):

Yes, we are picking the Clemson game.

No, we are not picking Clemson.

Forty-three and a half points is an absurd number for an offense that has yet to score 30 against an FBS opponent this season. Clemson could finally get the explosion it has been waiting for and still fail to cover this spread.

That’s actually about what I expect.

Tait Reynolds and the first-team offense should have every opportunity to put this game away early, but if Clemson is sitting on something like 35-0 midway through the third quarter, there is absolutely no reason for Reynolds, Bryant Wesco and the rest of the starters to still be out there chasing a betting line.

Give me something around 45-7, Tait in a baseball cap sometime in the third quarter, and a comfortable Clemson win that never seriously threatens the spread.

Lowell’s Lock: Charleston Southern +43.5

Good teams win. Great teams cover.

Week 7 Card: Indiana +3.5, LSU -16, Alabama -7.5, Missouri +5.5, Notre Dame -10.5, Charleston Southern +43.5.