Lowell's Locks: Week Eight

Well, that sucked.

Week Seven finished 2-4. LSU handled Mississippi State without breaking a sweat, and Charleston Southern somehow became one of our easiest covers of the season despite losing 37-0.

Indiana missed the cover by half a point against Ohio State, Tennessee beat Alabama by 16, Ole Miss dismantled Missouri, and BYU sent Notre Dame home with an outright loss.

That brings the Locks to an even 21-21 against the spread on the season.

Time to get back above water.

Saturday, October 24th:

No. 6 Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan:

We’re going right back to Indiana.

The Hoosiers burned us by half a point last week, but Michigan presents a completely different problem. Freshman Tommy Carr is expected to make his first start after replacing Bryce Underwood against Penn State. Carr helped Michigan rally, but he threw for only 47 yards.

Now he faces an Indiana defense that has been excellent against the run. If the Hoosiers take that away, Michigan has to find out very quickly how much it can ask from its freshman quarterback.

That’s where this pick is for me. Indiana doesn’t need another huge offensive day if Michigan struggles to get out of the teens.

Lowell’s Lock: Indiana -7.5

No. 18 LSU (-6.5) at Auburn:

Auburn finally got its signature win last week.

I’m still not buying it.

The Tigers stunned Georgia 27-24, but they needed a 3-0 turnover advantage despite being outgained. LSU presents a different problem because its defense is well suited to making Byrum Brown and Auburn earn yards without giving up easy explosives.

Auburn will also be without Xavier Atkins after the All-SEC linebacker was dismissed from the program this week.

Jordan-Hare scares me more than Auburn does.

Lowell’s Lock: LSU -6.5

No. 2 BYU (-6.5) at UCF:

BYU is coming off the biggest win of its season, so the letdown possibility is obvious. LJ Martin is still unavailable, too.

But UCF is sticking with Keyone Jenkins at quarterback while Alonza Barnett III works his way back, and the Knights have been much easier to attack through the air than on the ground. BYU doesn’t need to recreate the Notre Dame game; it needs Bachmeier to take what UCF gives him and avoid handing the Knights short fields.

Below a touchdown, that’s enough for me.

Lowell’s Lock: BYU -6.5

No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina (-2.5):

We’ve already learned this lesson with South Carolina.

The Gamecocks can look like the better team for long stretches and still turn a game they should win into something stupid. That makes laying points with them difficult, especially against a Tennessee team capable of making this an ugly one-possession game.

South Carolina’s run defense can make DeSean Bishop work, and LaNorris Sellers is the quarterback I trust more late. But Tennessee’s front can make South Carolina work just as hard on the other side, and the Vols don’t need George MacIntyre throwing it 40 times if Bishop keeps them on schedule.

This feels like exactly the kind of game South Carolina could win 24-23. At +2.5, I’m fine with that.

Lowell’s Lock: Tennessee +2.5

No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas (-3.5):

This might be my favorite pick of the week.

Texas has spent the last two games looking lost offensively. Arch Manning has struggled when pressure arrives, the offensive line hasn’t protected him consistently, and the Longhorns have not shown enough of a running game to reliably take the burden off him.

Now Texas has another problem: Colin Simmons, the nation’s leader in sacks and tackles for loss, is officially out with an ankle injury.

Ole Miss has its own defensive problems, but Trinidad Chambliss is playing better football than Arch right now, and the Rebels have enough balance offensively that Texas can’t simply sell out against the pass.

If this turns into a game where both quarterbacks have to make plays late, I know which one I trust more.

Lowell’s Lock: Ole Miss +3.5

Virginia Tech at Clemson (-2.5):

I think we saw something from Tait Reynolds against Miami.

Clemson got blown out on the scoreboard, but Reynolds threw it 44 times for 295 yards and showed that Clemson can still move the football when the game forces him to throw. That matters against a Virginia Tech defense that has been much tougher against the run than the pass.

Protection is the concern. Virginia Tech has enough pass rush to ruin drives if Clemson keeps ending up in third-and-long, so this isn’t a game where I expect the Tigers to cruise offensively.

I do trust Clemson’s defense.

Only LSU and Miami have scored more than 20 against the Tigers this season, and Virginia Tech doesn’t have the same offensive firepower as either of them. If Clemson can keep the Hokies around 17, Reynolds doesn’t need a huge night. He just needs a few good drives and to avoid handing Virginia Tech short fields.

Score Prediction: Clemson 24, Virginia Tech 17

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson -2.5

Good teams win. Great teams cover.

Week 8 Card: Indiana -7.5, LSU -6.5, BYU -6.5, Tennessee +2.5, Ole Miss +3.5, Clemson -2.5