Lowell's Locks: Week Ten

Week Nine went 3-3, moving the season record to 25-29 ATS.

Not great. Not a disaster.

Clemson did at least make the week memorable by going into Tallahassee as a six-point dog and winning outright.

Now here we go again.

No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU (-5.5):

LSU opened around -4. Now we are sitting at -5.5.

That caught my attention.

Five and a half is a lot of points to give Alabama, but the Tigers have one of the best efficiency profiles in the country and Sam Leavitt is playing his best football of the season. Alabama is allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, which is not ideal when Leavitt has completed more than 70 percent of his passes and thrown seven touchdowns without an interception over his last two games.

Keelon Russell is good enough to make this uncomfortable, and getting almost a touchdown with Alabama still feels vaguely illegal.

I just keep coming back to LSU’s passing game against that secondary.

Lowell’s Lock: LSU -5.5

No. 2 Georgia (-3.5) at No. 10 Ole Miss:

Ole Miss has burned me enough this season that taking the points out of spite briefly crossed my mind.

I got over it.

Georgia is scoring 41 points per game and allowing fewer than 15. The Bulldogs just ran for 217 yards against Florida, and Ole Miss enters this game without Kewan Lacy.

More importantly, Georgia has clear advantages in rushing efficiency and overall EPA. Oxford is doing a lot of work to keep this line at 3.5.

I think Georgia is better.

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia -3.5

No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame (-7.5):

Malachi Toney gets hurt in practice and Miami moves from roughly +5.5 to +7.5.

That is a huge reaction to one player.

Toney matters. A lot. He accounts for a ridiculous portion of Miami’s receiving production.

But Darian Mensah still leads the country in QBR and adjusted completion percentage. Miami still has Cooper Barkate, a strong running back room and one of the most efficient offenses in college football.

Notre Dame may win this game. I can buy that.

What I cannot buy is Miami suddenly becoming more than a touchdown worse because one receiver got hurt.

Lowell’s Lock: Miami +7.5

No. 23 Oregon at No. 12 Ohio State (-7.5):

Last week I laid 6.5 with Ohio State at USC.

The Buckeyes lost 30-18.

That experience has informed my decision-making process.

The frustrating part is Ohio State actually moved the ball. They had 464 yards, ran for 204 and controlled possession for nearly 40 minutes. Then they repeatedly got near the goal line and simply forgot what to do.

Luke Fahey was fine in his first start.

Oregon finally looked more functional with Dylan Raiola, who threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern. Maybe that was one good afternoon. Maybe the coordinator change actually helped.

Either way, I am not laying 7.5 with the offense I watched last week.

Lowell’s Lock: Oregon +7.5

Texas A&M at No. 21 South Carolina (-6.5):

This is probably the number on the card I like least.

Some predictive models have South Carolina closer to a four-point favorite, and asking the Gamecocks to win by a touchdown is not nothing.

Texas A&M has a different problem, and it’s the same one Oklahoma had; they can’t move the ball.

The Aggies have struggled offensively in conference play and come into Columbia beat up at receiver, running back and along the offensive line. South Carolina’s defense should make the run game difficult enough that A&M has to win through the part of its offense I trust least.

Meanwhile, I spent last week worrying all over this column about LaNorris Sellers facing Oklahoma.

He threw for 301 yards, ran for 96 more and South Carolina scored 42. My bad.

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina -6.5

Clemson (-2.5) at Syracuse:

There was plenty to like at Florida State. Tait Reynolds threw two touchdowns without an interception, ran for 85 yards and broke a 79-yard touchdown when the game suddenly got uncomfortable. Clemson forced four turnovers and finally looked like something resembling a competent football team.

Syracuse is playing better. The Dome is annoying. Steve Angeli is expected to play, and Clemson is missing enough offensive pieces that I would not blame anyone for staying away from this.

There is also that betting split: more tickets on Clemson, more money on Syracuse. However, Clemson has the better defense, particularly on the defensive line and in the secondary, and Tait gives them something they did not have earlier this year when the offense looked completely lifeless.

Score Prediction: Clemson 27, Syracuse 17

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson -2.5

Good teams win. Great teams cover.

Week 10 Card: LSU -5.5 vs. Alabama, Georgia -3.5 at Ole Miss, Miami +7.5 at Notre Dame, Oregon +7.5 at Ohio State, South Carolina -6.5 vs. Texas A&M, Clemson -2.5 at Syracuse