Lowell's Locks: Week Eleven

Week 10 finally gave this column the Saturday it needed.

A 5-1 week pushed the season record back to 30-30. Georgia rolled, Miami survived the number, Oregon won outright, South Carolina handled business and Clemson covered again. LSU was the lone miss.

Now let’s try being profitable.

Saturday, November 14:

No. 6 Texas (+4.5) at No. 21 LSU

I do not feel especially comfortable with this pick, and most of that comes down to LSU’s defensive front against the Texas offensive line.

The Tigers are one of the best teams in the country at creating sacks, while Texas has spent too much of this season letting Arch Manning get hit. LSU can also stop the run without committing extra bodies, which creates a pretty obvious nightmare scenario where Texas keeps finding itself in 3rd-and-long in Tiger Stadium at night.

The reason I am still taking Texas is the number. LSU went from an underdog to laying more than a field goal, while most of the predictive numbers still see this as roughly a two-to-four-point game. Texas has also played its best football over the last month, with Manning looking considerably more comfortable than he did earlier in the season.

A 24-21 LSU win would not surprise me. Neither would Texas winning outright.

I will take the 4.5 and hope the offensive line can keep Manning upright long enough to make it matter.

Lowell’s Lock: Texas +4.5

No. 19 Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-1)

I was ready to take Ole Miss here until I started looking more closely at how the game would actually be played.

The Rebels have struggled to stop the run all season, and Oklahoma desperately needs somebody to give its offense a simple answer. The Sooners have struggled to consistently throw the ball and create explosive plays, so there is no reason to make this harder than it needs to be. Run the football, use John Mateer’s legs and stay out of obvious passing downs.

More importantly, Oklahoma does not need much from its offense because the defense has been excellent. The Sooners have been one of the better teams in the country at getting off the field on third down, generating pressure and keeping opponents from sustaining drives. That matters against an Ole Miss offense that is already missing Kewan Lacy and now has to face a defense capable of making every possession feel difficult.

There is also something uncomfortable about how popular Ole Miss has become in this spot. The overwhelming majority of public tickets have landed on the Rebels, while several sharper handicappers have preferred Oklahoma.

This does not need to turn into an offensive breakthrough for the Sooners. If Oklahoma can run the ball, avoid giving Ole Miss short fields and let its defense control the game, that should be enough.

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma -1

No. 22 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (-14.5)

Fourteen and a half points is a lot to give a ranked team, but Georgia is making it increasingly difficult to find reasons not to trust them.

The Bulldogs just beat Ole Miss 42-7, one week after keeping Florida scoreless through three quarters. Missouri has enough at quarterback to make this annoying for a while, but Georgia has been suffocating teams defensively and does not need Gunner Stockton to carry the offense when it can run the ball, control the game and keep handing things back to the defense.

Missouri could lose 31-17 and ruin this by half a point. That is the danger when laying this kind of number.

I still think Georgia creates enough separation late.

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia -14.5

No. 2 Utah (-2.5) at No. 23 Arizona

This is mostly a trust pick.

Utah is 9-0, Devon Dampier keeps making plays and the Utes have been one of the most reliable teams against the number all season. Arizona is good, Noah Fifita can throw it around, and Tucson is a legitimate road environment. This is also the kind of game where an undefeated team coming off an emotional rivalry win can get caught looking ahead.

I know all of that, and I still trust Utah more.

Arizona has had problems defensively against better offenses, and the injury situation on that side of the ball does not help. Dampier also gives Utah a way to manufacture offense when the normal stuff breaks down, which matters in a game that should still be tight in the second half.

If I only have to lay 2.5, I am taking the team that has given me fewer reasons to doubt it.

Lowell’s Lock: Utah -2.5

No. 17 South Carolina (-8) at Arkansas

I liked this considerably more at seven, but the matchup still points toward South Carolina.

LaNorris Sellers is dealing with an ankle injury, the Gamecocks are on the road and Arkansas is now catching more than a touchdown. Normally that is enough to make me start talking myself into the home dog.

The problem is Arkansas has been terrible against the run.

South Carolina has been one of the better rushing offenses in the country on a per-play basis, while Arkansas has been one of the worst teams at stopping it. Even if Sellers is not operating at 100 percent, this should be a much friendlier matchup than some of the defenses he has faced recently.

He has also earned some benefit of the doubt. I worried about him against Oklahoma, and he produced nearly 400 total yards. I worried about South Carolina laying a touchdown to Texas A&M, and the Gamecocks won by eight while allowing nine points.

The number is uncomfortable, but the matchup is still good enough for me to lay it.

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina -8

Georgia Tech at Clemson (-14)

The Clemson handicap is simpler than most of the others this week: I do not think Georgia Tech can score enough.

Clemson’s offense is still far from trustworthy. Tait Reynolds is banged up, the offensive line has injuries and two good weeks are not enough to pretend all of the problems from September and October suddenly disappeared.

Georgia Tech may not be capable of making those problems matter.

The Yellow Jackets have been awful on third down, struggle in pass protection and enter Death Valley with a long injury list. Clemson’s defense should be able to put Tech behind schedule, pressure the quarterback and spend most of the afternoon forcing short possessions.

That means Clemson does not need an offensive explosion to cover. If the defense holds Georgia Tech around 10 points, something as ordinary as 27 from the offense gets us home.

The risk is a game Clemson controls without ever finishing drives, something like 24-13. We have seen enough from this offense to know that is possible.

I still think the defense creates enough margin for the Tigers to get there.

Score Prediction: Clemson 27, Georgia Tech 10

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson -14

Good teams win. Great teams cover.

Week 11 Card: Texas +4.5, Oklahoma -1, Georgia -14.5, Utah -2.5, South Carolina -8, Clemson -14