Lowell's Locks: Week Four

One bad week completely offset the good week two, as I went 2-4 to drop me one game under .500 at 7-8-1 and that Minnesota-Ohio State push continues to haunt me. The good from last week? Nebraska hung tight with Oklahoma like I thought they could, taking the #3 team in the country to the wire. The bad? South Carolina punched in a meaningless, garbage time touchdown to backdoor cover as a 31-point dog against Georgia. The ugly? Clemson looked anemic on offense, and couldn’t even score 28 points much less cover 28. That may impact my pick for them this week. Let’s go!

Saturday, September 25th

#12 Notre Dame vs #18 Wisconsin (-6.5) in Chicago 

If I picked over-unders, I would tell you to take the under in this one, as you should in most Wisconsin games. Chez Mellusi has quickly burst onto the scene for Wisconsin in their run-heavy system, and the Badgers defense has been stifling so far in the season. Notre Dame has looked leaky in games against FSU, Toledo and Purdue, and I just have a tough time buying them. This is a slugfest into the fourth, but the Badgers shut down the Irish all game and get enough out of the offense to cover.

Lowell’s Lock: Wisconsin covers -6.5

SMU at TCU (-9.5):

If you haven’t paid attention to Sonny Dykes and SMU, it might be time to start. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai has over 1,000 yards and and 16 touchdowns in just three games so far this season in Dykes’ air raid system, and the Mustangs pulled off an incredible hail mary against Louisiana Tech to stay undefeated. TCU, meanwhile, has quietly flown under the radar and survived a shootout with Cal two weeks ago to stay undefeated themselves. This will be the opposite of the Wisconsin-ND game, with plenty of points and plenty of yards. I’m a big believer in the SMU offense and believe they’re better than Cal’s, and they give TCU a run for their money.

Lowell’s Lock: SMU covers +9.5

#7 Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. #16 Arkansas in Arlington:

This is another game where points will be at a premium. Texas A&M has what is probably the best defense in the SEC not named Georgia, but you have to wonder about their offense after scoring just 10 against Colorado two weeks ago and bringing a new quarterback into a game against an Arkansas defense that isn't too bad themselves. The Arkansas running game has been near unstoppable to start the year, and KJ Jefferson is starting to finally settle in at quarterback. Can they get enough from their offense to pull the upset? I don't know, but they can get enough to cover.

Lowell’s Lock: Arkansas covers +5.5

West Virginia at #4 Oklahoma (-17):

West Virginia is coming off a pretty impressive win against #15 Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma is coming off a sluggish, 7-point win against Nebraska. So why is Oklahoma favored by over two touchdowns? Because last week was the wake-up call they needed. West Virginia is experienced on defense and that will keep them hanging for a half, but the offense has been awful at protecting the football. Oklahoma’s defense gets a couple of timely turnovers, and the Sooners start looking more like normal offensively.

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma covers -17

Kentucky (-5) at South Carolina:

Kentucky hasn't won pretty so far this year, but they’ve won. They now have a chance to get out of September at 4-0, and face a South Carolina team that just got shellacked by Georgia. Kentucky has shown they have a decent enough offense and can move the ball either by land or by air. South Carolina has struggled on that side of the ball, and I don’t expect that to change now. THe Gamecock defense and crowd, though, will keep this a game into the fourth quarter.

Lowell’s Lock: Kentucky covers -5

#9 Clemson (-10) at NC State:

Something is wrong with the Clemson offense. It isn't necessarily broken, it just feels like its a step or two off on each play. NC State is a team that hasn’t beaten the Tigers in a decade, and senses they're vulnerable for the first time in years. They have the defense to hang, the home crowd, and Doeren has quietly proven his worth as a coach. But while everyone focuses on the Clemson offense struggling, they may have forgotten that the Clemson defense has yet to surrender a touchdown this season. NC State will struggle to move the ball, as will Clemson. The Clemson offense, though, will take a small step forward towards living up to the hype of the talent on that side of the ball. A couple big plays let the Tigers survive for another week, in another low scoring affair. 

Lowell’s Lock: NC State covers +10