Lowell's Locks: Week Eleven

A 2-4 week is an improvement off of back-to-back 1-5 weeks, and it still keeps my record at the .500 mark. Some ugly performances by Clemson and Vanderbilt, along with Kansas State and Wake Forest just not having enough in the tank, really hurt me last week. The good news is LSU and Georgia took care of business almost exactly how I expected them to. 

This is the week where it all comes together for me. I feel good about this slate of games, so let’s go!

Saturday, November 13th

No. 7 LSU (-3.5) at Arkansas:

This is a huge game for LSU, who now controls their own destiny in the SEC West. Win this game, and they get one step closer to Atlanta (and potentially the CFP). Lose it, and things get weird at the top of the standings, with Ole Miss potentially jumping to the front of the pack if they can beat Alabama. LSU’s run defense has been playing with fire the past couple of weeks, and Arkansas is certainly a team capable of burning the Tigers. Factor in the weirdness of noon kicks, and this one gets wonky. The Tigers survive, but it’s tight.

Lowell’s Lock: Arkansas covers +3.5

No. 9 Alabama (-12) at No. 11 Ole Miss:

What’s left for Alabama? Unless LSU manages to totally implode, the SEC West, SEC Championship, and CFP are all off the table for the Tide. How do they respond, on the road against a Top 15 team, when there’s nothing left to play for but pride? I’m not saying Alabama is going to lie down, but I can’t envision a scenario where they cover the spread here against an Ole Miss team who has the ability to ram the ball down their throats on the ground, just as LSU did last week.

Lowell’s Lock: Ole Miss covers +12

No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon (-12):

What a difference a few games can make. Ever since getting obliterated by Georgia in the season opener, the Ducks have gotten it together and are making a real push for a CFP spot. Bo Nix is a darkhorse Heisman candidate (Auburn fans look away) as he’s put up 22 touchdowns through the air and added another 13 on the ground. Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington offense are no slouches either, and at times this game will make you wonder if it’s the Pac-12 or the Big 12. The Ducks prevail, but it’s going to be a fun one.

Lowell’s Lock: Washington covers +12

No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (-7.5):

Now the real tests begin. TCU finally managed to crack the top four of the CFP rankings, but they’re coming up on a very dangerous Texas squad. The Longhorns are going to ride stud running back Bijan Robinson in this one and pick and choose their chances to hit TCU over the top. TCU has as much pop offensively as anyone, but this is the most complete offense the Horned Frogs' defense will have faced so far this season. This is a tough one on the road. The Frogs cover, but will they get out with a win? Time will tell.

Lowell’s Lock: TCU covers +7.5

South Carolina at Florida (-8):

It’s hard to trust the Gators to cover this spread. The defense has simply been too inconsistent, and the offense has been too one-dimensional. The Gamecocks defense will make things a little easier on Anthony Richardson and co. for the Gators, but I foresee a fairly big game coming from Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler after a get-right game against Vanderbilt last weekend. This actually could end up turning into a fun one to watch.

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina covers +8

Louisville at No. 10 Clemson (-7):

It’s hard to make heads or tails of the Tigers. On paper, the defensive front is the most talented unit in college football, and Notre Dame ran them over. The Irish had no intention of even pretending they were going to throw the football, and Clemson couldn’t do anything to stop them. So what happens now, with a faint hope of the playoff still glimmering and a red-hot Louisville squad coming to town? One would think the Tigers would respond with high emotion and not let themselves get bullied like that again, and the home crowd should certainly make a difference. But the Tigers have real issues, and that makes it hard to pick them against this spread. The offense should get back on track by leaning on Will Shipley and Phil Mafah, but this one will be another heart-stopping chapter of this rivalry. 

Score Prediction: 27-24 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Louisville covers +7