Keys to Victory: Clemson vs. NC State

Each week, we review the game’s history, three keys to success, and Swanny’s prediction.

The Match-Up:

Clemson (4-3, 2-3 ACC) at NC State (4-3, 1-2 ACC)

Swinney is 8-1 all-time against Doeren with all meetings coming during Doeren's tenure at NC State. Presently, Doeren is one of only two head coaches to be defeated by Swinney eight times, joining Wake Forest's Dave Clawson, whom Swinney defeated for the 10th time earlier this month.

Series History:

• OVERALL: Clemson leads series, 60-29-1
• HOME: Clemson leads series, 30-11-1
• ROAD: Clemson leads series, 22-17
• NEUTRAL: Clemson leads series, 8-1
• LAST MEETING: Oct. 1, 2022 (30-20, W)
• STREAK: Clemson, Won 1

Roster:

Stat of the Week:

Clemson enters the game having not lost games to ACC opponents in consecutive weeks for more than 13 calendar years. The Tigers' last time losing in ACC play in back-to-back weeks came on Oct. 2 and Oct. 9 of 2010 against Miami (Fla.) and North Carolina in Swinney's second full season. Clemson's current freshman class was in kindergarten at that time.

Chasing History:

Clemson Head Coach Dabo Swinney will again attempt to pass College Football Hall of Famer Frank Howard for sole possession of Clemson's all-time head coaching wins record.

Key 1: Mafah Man with the Plan

Clemson’s running game needs a spark, and at this point, I think it’s safe to say that giving Phil Mafah the bulk of Clemson’s carries would benefit the offense. Mafah averages 6.2 yards per carry in comparison to Will Shipley’s 4.7. Based on what I’ve seen, Mafah hits the hole and sees running lanes better than Shipley-- not to mention he’s just a bigger back.

Shipley’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield was a huge part of the conversations during his recruitment, but it has never translated into game-breaking plays. I’d like to see Shipley utilized as a third-down back for a while, freeing up Mafah to tote the load.

Key 2: Finish in the Red Zone

It's easy to point to Clemson’s turnovers as a major cause for concern, but honestly, you can kill two birds with one stone by just finishing drives. Clemson, at one time, found ways to win games, and today, it just feels like they find ways to lose them. What’s occurred over the first seven games this season is mind-boggling. 

Clemson has to shake their offensive woes in the red zone, and turnovers have been a huge part of that. If the Tigers can return to normal-- they should win by 10+ points. But if they pull out the guns again and continue to shoot themselves in the foot-- the Wolfpack might be howling by the end of the 4th quarter.

Key 3: O-Line Online

Clemson’s offensive line hasn’t played up to the standard this season and once Walker Parks went down, the right guard spot quickly became a liability. In addition to that, there isn’t a solidified performer at left tackle, and right tackle Blake Miller was abused by Miami freshman Rueben Bain.

While the spotlight on the Tigers’ running game and Cade Klubnik’s play have been magnified, given a 4-3 start, much of the blame should fall on Thomas Austin’s group up front. They haven’t done enough, and if they don’t get back online soon, the heat on Austin’s seat will only intensify further. 

Prediction:

Another weekend arrives where the Tigers are simply the better-constructed team from top to bottom, but as we’ve seen, the great equalizer has been turnovers. It has to be killing Dabo Swinney, watching his team snatch defeat from the jaws of victory time and time again.

Clemson’s streak of 10+ win seasons is on the line each week from this point forward, and I think today things will go Swinney’s way in this one.

Clemson 28, NC State 17

Swanny’s Predictions: 

✅ = Correct Prediction