Lowell's Locks: Week Eleven

After three losing weeks in a row, I got out of the loser’s category with a 3-3 record. Georgia couldn’t score again late to cover for me, Oklahoma took a second straight upset, and Clemson suddenly looked like a good football team again against Notre Dame to account for my losses. For my wins, Kansas State barely covered in overtime against Texas, Alabama could not be stopped against LSU, and the Gamecocks of Jacksonville State took the Gamecocks of South Carolina to the limit. Now that I’m getting back on track, this feels like a promising week. So, let’s get to this week’s slate.

Saturday, November 11:

#3 Michigan (-4) at #10 Penn State:

It’s tempting to take Penn State with everything going on in Ann Arbor right now. Coach Jim Harbaugh will not be on the sidelines for the Wolverines, and Penn State looked like they were getting right last week against Maryland. The Nittany Lions will be able to score some on Michigan, but I have many questions about their ability to hit Michigan over the top with any kind of consistent success while Michigan stacks the box against the Lions’ run game. The Wolverines are just mashing teams this year, and while Penn State’s defense has been very good all season, I like the Wolverines to wear them down late. There’s also the James Franklin factor: The Penn State head coach is just 3-16 against top-ten teams in his tenure at State College.

Lowell’s Lock: Michigan covers -4

Miami at #4 Florida State (-14): 

With quarterback Tyler Van Dyke struggling immensely against NC State, the Hurricanes enter this game with a controversy at the position. That’s bad news against a fast and aggressive Florida State defense. The Seminoles are simply more talented and are still getting better as the season progresses, while Miami is seemingly going in the opposite direction. Cristobal’s seat may be feeling a tad bit warm.

Lowell’s Lock: Florida State covers -14

#18 Utah at #5 Washington (-8.5):

This is a scary game for Washington. Utah is going to be able to move the ball against a sub-par Huskies defense, and the Washington’s run game will likely struggle against the Utes front. I think Penix has a big game to lead Washington to the win late, but the number is too big not to go with Utah.

Lowell’s Lock: Utah covers +8.5

Florida at #19 LSU (-14.5):

Neither of these defenses are performing well lately. With Jayden Daniels playing, you can pretty much guarantee that the Tigers will put up 40. The question is, can they keep Florida from hitting that number, too? Either way, the number here is too big between two teams with a lot of questions. 

Lowell’s Lock: Florida covers +14.5

Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-14):

Much like LSU, the line here is too large. The South Carolina defense is too bad to make this an easy win. Vanderbilt has not been good by any stretch, but they have enough offensive weapons to make the Gamecocks sweat into the fourth quarter. Vanderbilt has also been forcing some turnovers recently, and the Gamecocks have been giving it away. Look for the Commodores to cover in Williams-Brice Stadium.

Lowell’s Locks: Vanderbilt covers +14

Georgia Tech at Clemson (-14):

That looked more like it. The Tigers flexed their muscles last weekend in controlling Notre Dame from start to finish, looking a bit more like the Tigers of a few years ago. Georgia Tech enters this game as one of the most unpredictable teams in the country, but their strength lies in their offense, particularly on the ground. Haynes King has been incredible for the Jackets this season, but he’ll find it tough to move the ball against this Clemson defense performing at a high level. On the flip side, the Jackets defense is simply not good. They rank 129^th in total defense, 132^nd in rushing defense, 78^th in passing defense, and 104^th in scoring defense, giving up over 30 points per game. The Tigers keep it rolling for a second straight game.

Score Prediction: 31-14 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -14

Until next week, folks.