Lowell's Locks: Week Twelve

We’re back! Following a tough couple of weeks, a 4-2 record gets me up past the .500 mark once again. With two weeks left in the regular season, this becomes a massive week in terms of securing some breathing room. A 5-1 week can guarantee me a .500 record no matter what happens next week. That may be a tough task, as we have some games that will be hard to predict, but that’s the beauty of college football. So let’s get to it!

Saturday, November 19th

Illinois at No. 3 Michigan (-17.5):

This is the trappiest trap game that ever did trap. The entire college football world is already looking ahead to undefeated Michigan vs. undefeated Ohio State, but the Wolverines better not be doing that. Illinois has the toughness up front to contain Blake Corum and this Michigan running game and turn this one into a real slog. Michigan pulls away in the second half, but it’s ugly.

Lowell’s Lock: Illinois covers +17.5

No. 4 TCU (-2) at Baylor:

Another team that needs to be super careful-- TCU. The Horned Frogs got all they wanted from Texas last week and now go on the road to face one of the better defenses in the Big 12. TCU has been living on the edge for a lot of the year, and if they’re not careful, the Bears could easily catch them slipping. The spread is basically a pick ‘em, and I do think the Frogs are the better team here, but keep an eye on this one. A turnover or two makes this very interesting.

Lowell’s Lock: TCU covers -2

No. 22 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-7):

Oklahoma desperately needs to finish this season strong, and they need to win their last two games to make a bowl. Oklahoma State is reeling right now, and this is an opportunity for Brent Venables and the Sooners to get right. This one should be a classic, high scoring Big 12 game, but the Cowboys have struggled with turnovers lately. Turnovers should be big in this one, too.

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma covers -7

No. 7 USC (-2) at No. 16 UCLA:

I, along with most of the college football world, have had this game circled for a while. To me, this game breaks down like this:

UCLA is really good at running the ball (240.10 YPG, 8th), and USC is really bad at stopping the run (141.50 YPGA, 58th). It’s pretty easy to bomb it on UCLA, and USC will do just that for some huge plays in this one, but UCLA will have the ability to limit possessions and keep USC and Caleb Williams on the sideline. With USC running back Travis Dye lost for the year due to injury, the balance of USC’s offense is in severe question as well. The Pac-12’s playoff hopes go down in flames.

Lowell’s Lock: UCLA covers +2

No. 5 Tennessee (-22) at South Carolina:

Look away. With Tennessee needing style points to impress the committee and potentially backdoor their way into the playoff, this one gets out of hand quickly. The Gamecocks will have no answers on either side of the ball.

Lowell’s Lock: Tennessee covers -22

Miami at No. 9 Clemson (-19):

The Tigers had stretches of finally looking like a dominant team last week, rolling up 439 yards of offense and shutting down what had been a red-hot Louisville squad. The Canes are two weeks removed from a 45-3 thrashing at the hands of rival FSU and have generally been a massive disappointment under Mario Cristobal in year one. Clemson will get the opportunity to run the score up in the second half as Miami’s offense continues to sputter. Clemson cleans up the turnovers and cashes in on some of Miami’s.

Score Prediction: 38-10 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -19