Lowell's Locks: Week Three

Following up a 3-3 week one with a 2-4 week two isn’t ideal. Don’t hit the panic button just yet, though. Sometimes, to go forward, you have to go back. 

Speaking of back, Texas got a massive win over Michigan; their high-flying offense was too much for the Wolverines to handle. Clemson, meanwhile, seems to have taken big strides after putting up 712 yards and 66 points on a “giant killer” App State program that is seen as the favorite in the Sun Belt. That was all the good for the week.

Oklahoma State couldn’t cover their 10-point spread against Arkansas, NC State got absolutely blistered by Tennessee, Oregon continues to flirt with disaster and failed to cover 19.5, and Kentucky had the life snuffed out of them by the South Carolina defense to cover the losses from last weekend.

We have another fun slate of games this weekend and a big bounce-back opportunity. Lowell’s Locks will be the next team to be “back.”

Friday, September 13th: 

No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State (-7):

We’re likely to have a fairly high-scoring affair in this one but in different ways. Arizona wants to air it out, tallying a 422-yard and four-touchdown performance from quarterback Noah Fifta in the opener before a sluggish 22-10 win over Northern Arizona in game two took away some of the good vibes. So, who is the real Arizona? It is likely somewhere in between, which should be enough to put up some yards and points on Kansas State’s 85th-ranked passing defense. Kansas State, meanwhile, wants to run the ball, averaging over 250 yards a game on the ground. The real difference may be along the Kansas State defensive front, which has nine sacks over their first two games. Expect Kansas State to get some pressure and establish the ground game late in the second half to pull away.

Lowell’s Lock: Kansas State covers -7

Saturday, September 14th:

No. 4 Alabama (-16) at Wisconsin:

We’ve seen two sides to Alabama so far this season. The first was a blistering 63-0 win in the season opener against Western Kentucky, and the second was an unfocused, ugly 42-16 win over South Florida, in which the Tide were up only 21-16 with six minutes to play until a few stop and scores late enabled Alabama to pull away. Wisconsin, however, has had two ugly wins over Western Michigan and South Dakota to start the season. This isn’t the time for Wisconsin to try and get right. The Badgers should have the Tide’s full attention after a subpar showing last weekend.

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama covers -16

No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri (-16):

Boston College has quietly looked competent under first-year head coach Bill O’Brien. The offensive line is very good and has pushed around Florida State and Duquesne to start the season. They get an uptick in competition with Missouri, who has yet to give up a point this season (albeit against Murray State and Buffalo). The Tigers have one of the best receivers in the country in Luther Burden, and I expect him to make plenty of plays. Still, Boston College should be able to muddy things up enough with the run game and with quarterback Thomas Castellanos to cover the big line. 

Lowell’s Lock: Boston College covers +16

No. 9 Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State:

What’s going on with Oregon? A week after they couldn’t score against Idaho, the Ducks finally found some offense against Boise State, but got absolutely shredded defensively by the Broncos. Oregon has been big favorites in its first two games, but have had to squeak out wins. Oregon State hasn’t looked particularly impressive themselves, but they have a strong offensive line and should find room to run against a Ducks defense that gave up 221 yards and three touchdowns on the ground last week. At some point the Ducks will have to turn it on if they want to be title contenders... but I don’t think it’ll be this week.

Lowell’s Lock: Oregon State covers +16.5

Memphis at Florida State (-6.5):

Florida State is still searching for their first win of the season, and they need this game for a realistic shot at a bowl based on the way they’ve looked this season. The Seminoles have been lifeless on both sides of the ball, and things don’t get easier with the always-explosive Tigers coming to town. Florida State hasn’t shown they can win this game, much less cover an almost touchdown spread.

Lowell’s Lock: Memphis covers +6.5

No. 16 LSU (-6.5) at South Carolina:

This is going to be a battle in the trenches. LSU has yet to give up a sack this season, while South Carolina has racked up ten sacks in two games. LSU hasn’t gotten after the quarterback particularly well, registering just two sacks in two games, but they have the athletes to make things hard on a South Carolina offensive line that has given up eight sacks in two games (129th nationally). I expect the Tigers to win more battles than they lose up front offensively, and I don’t trust the South Carolina offense (88th in scoring, 122^nd in total offense) enough in this one. 

Lowell’s Lock: LSU covers -6.5