Keys to Victory: No. 19 Clemson vs. NC State

Each week, we review the game’s history, three keys to success, and Swanny’s prediction.

The Match-Up:

No. 21/19 Clemson (1-1, 0-0 ACC) vs. NC State (2-1, 0-0 ACC)

After an open date last week, Clemson will return to Death Valley on Saturday, Sept. 21 for the second portion of a three-game September homestand when the Tigers face the NC State Wolfpack. Kickoff at Memorial Stadium in Clemson is scheduled for noon ET. Last time out, the Tigers scored touchdowns on each of their first eight drives and built a 56-13 halftime lead en route to a 66-20 win against Appalachian State.

Clemson has a 60-30-1 lead in the all-time series against NC State, including a 27-11 home record against the Wolfpack. Clemson has won nine of the last 11 games in the series and 16 of the last 19.

The series dates to 1899 when Clemson was victorious, 24-0, in a game played in Rock Hill, S.C. That was just the fourth year of Clemson football and the 16th game in the school’s history. The teams played each other every year since 1971 until 2020, when the ACC did not place NC State on Clemson’s adjusted schedule amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Series History:

• OVERALL: Clemson leads series, 60-30-1
• HOME: Clemson leads series, 30-11-1
• ROAD: Clemson leads series, 22-18
• NEUTRAL: Clemson leads series, 8-1
• LAST MEETING: Oct. 28, 2023 (24-17, L)
• STREAK: NC State, Won 1

Roster:

Rosters will be released by Clemson two hours before kickoff.

Stat of the Week:

In his career as head coach, Dabo Swinney and Clemson have suffered just 44 losses. The Tigers have had 31 opportunities to avenge its most recent loss against an opponent, going 21-10 in those contests. Including NC State, there are 13 opponents against which Swinney’s squads are awaiting a rematch since Clemson’s last loss in the series: Nebraska, TCU, USF, West Virginia, LSU, Ohio State, Pitt, Tennessee, Duke, Florida State, Miami (Fla.) and Georgia. 

Chasing History:

Clemson enters the game with an all-time program record of 799-473-45. A win today would make Clemson the 14th FBS program (and first ACC program) ever to win 800 games.

Memorable Moments: 

1948: Bobby Gage ran 90 yards on a punt return for the only score of the game in a 6-0 Tiger victory over the Wolfpack. It was the longest punt return in Death Valley until Jacoby Ford had a 92-yard punt return against Florida Atlantic in the opening game in 2006. It was a key win in Clemson’s undefeated 1948 season under Frank Howard.

1967: Clemson painted its shoes orange for the NC State game in Death Valley, and the Tigers upset the 10th-ranked Wolfpack, 14-6. Clemson clinched a tie for the ACC championship with the victory. Clemson painted its shoes orange because NC State had featured a defense that had worn white shoes during the season. It was the highest-ranked team Clemson defeated in Death Valley in the Frank Howard era.

1991: Clemson wore purple jerseys for the first time since the 1940s in a 29-19 upset victory over NC State. NC State was undefeated and ranked 10th in the nation entering the game against Ken Hatfield’s Tigers. Nelson Welch kicked a then-record five field goals in leading Clemson to the victory. Clemson went on to win the ACC championship.

2001: Woody Dantzler gained 517 yards of total offense, an all-time Clemson record at the time later broken by Tajh Boyd against NC State in 2012. Dantzler completed a career-best 23-of-27 passes for 333 yards and four scores and also rushed for 184 yards and two touchdowns. It was arguably the best individual performance in Clemson history as he accounted for a then-ACC record six touchdowns, later broken by Boyd.

2016: NC State’s Kyle Bambard missed a 33-yard field goal on the last play of regulation that would have given NC State the upset. With the score tied at 17, Clemson scored a touchdown on its overtime possession on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Deshaun Watson to Artavis Scott. Marcus Edmond then sealed the Clemson victory with an interception on NC State’s ensuing possession.

Key 1: Fluster the Freshman Fellow

Last weekend, when NC State starter Grayson McCall got injured just before the half against La. Tech, the feeling about today’s matchup with Clemson shifted significantly. Freshman C.J. Bailey entered the game for McCall and ultimately led the Wolfpack to a come-from-behind victory, but it wasn’t without issue. 

Bailey threw an interception on his second pass of the game, and with the Tigers having a week to prepare, you can bet that Wes Goodwin will present looks that attempt to confuse and slow down his judgment against the Tigers. Clemson has just one sack to its credit at this point in the season, and it’s safe that number will increase this afternoon.

Speaking with Tim Bourret this week on the show, he reminded me that a freshman quarterback hasn’t won in Death Valley since Tyrod Taylor and Virginia Tech in 2007, so I don’t like Bailey’s odds.

Key 2: Feed Phil

In my estimation, Clemson running back Phil Mafah is an undervalued player nationally. I love his blend of speed, balance, and power. Entering today’s game, Mafah has just 26 carries for 177 yards and a touchdown—and 83-yard sprint to the endzone against App State two weekends ago.

If the goal was to save the tread on Mafah’s tires heading into the ACC play, the Tigers have certainly done that, as he got to watch the majority of the Tigers win over the Mountaineers. 

Under Matt Luke, the Clemson offensive line plays with newfound confidence. It was a pleasant surprise to see how well they held up against Georgia in the opener, leading me to believe that they will win many battles this season.

If Garrett Riley and the Tigers’ offensive staff will feed Mafah the football, things will open up in the downfield passing game as the Pack are forced to put additional hats in the box to slow the Clemson rushing attack.

Key 3: Slow Concepcion

The Tigers could keep NC State star wideout KC Concepcion under wraps a season ago in Raleigh, and if he is able to get loose today in Death Valley, it could be a long day for Mike Reed and the Clemson secondary. Last season, he totaled 83 yards and two big touchdowns, which helped lead the Wolfpack to a win.

This season, Concepcion has had a solid start—perhaps not as much production-wise as he would like—but the opportunities have been there. He had nine receptions for 121 yards to open the season against Western Carolina but was limited in the Tennessee and Louisiana Tech contests. 

The Tigers need to keep an eye on Concepcion as the Pack get him the football in various ways. He is as slippery with the football as just about any player the Tigers will face this year.

Prediction:

Two weekends ago, Clemson’s offense was off-the-charts good. Cade Klubnik put up numbers that haven’t been seen in college football in 25 years, so when I’m asked if the Tigers can replicate the results, I’ve been quick to say—no.

One brick doesn’t make a house, and when evaluating the play of Klubnik against Power Five competition, the jury is still out, but he is clearly more poised this season, which leads me to believe that the Tigers will have a good performance at home today. 

Additionally, I think the Clemson defense will hound Bailey and get a score of their own to lead the Tigers to victory and keep the Wolfpack from winning in Death Valley—a streak that’s lasted 22 years—dating back to a 38-6 win for then NC State coach Chuck Amato in 2002.

Clemson 34, NC State 13

Swanny’s Predictions: 

✅ = Correct Prediction

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