Lowell's Locks: Week Thirteen

A 3-3 week keeps the locks treading water, with a shot at glory as the regular season winds down. 

Last weekend, Colorado, Florida, and Kansas all handled business, while South Carolina, Tennessee, and Clemson couldn’t beat the lines. With just two weeks left in the regular season, it’s time for the Locks to officially Lock in. 

Saturday, November 23rd

No.5 Indiana at No.2 Ohio State (-10.5):

Indiana and head coach Curt Cignetti have been a great story this season, and the outcome of this game won’t change just how improved this team is. However, at a certain point, talent matters. Not that Indiana isn’t talented, but Ohio State is on another level. On the road, against that defense, Indiana finally falls. 

Lowell’s Lock: Ohio State covers -10.5

No.9 Ole Miss (-12) at Florida:

This feels like a trap for the Rebels. The Gators have been a tough out anytime they’ve had DJ Lagway as the signal caller, and they just took down a talented LSU squad last week at home. Ole Miss got a big win over Georgia, but with the Egg Bowl next week, this could be a letdown spot. Ole Miss still likely gets the win, but I like the Gators to cover the number at home.

Lowell’s Lock: Florida covers +12

No.16 Colorado (-3) at Kansas:

I’m fully on the Kansas bandwagon, and I’m not getting off now. The Jayhawks started 1-5 after some terrible early-season luck, but now one of the hottest offenses in the country has brought them to 4-6 with a shot at a bowl. The Buffs will make plenty of plays on offense, as they do every week, but their pass-happy approach actually plays into the strength of the Kansas defense, which struggles more against the run. It should be a high-scoring affair, and Kansas might pull off a second straight huge upset.

Lowell’s Lock: Kansas covers +3

No.19 Army at No. 6 Notre Dame (-14):

I’m tempted to call for the upset here, but I recall what Notre Dame did to another undefeated service academy earlier this year. Navy did have an uncharacteristic six turnovers in that game, and Army is one of the top teams in the country at holding onto the ball. The Black Knights will be able to shorten this game enough to cover the number, though I’m not sure they’ll be able to hold up against the Notre Dame rushing attack all game.

Lowell’s Lock: Army covers +14

Wofford at No.18 South Carolina (-42.5):

I had to hunt to find a line on this one. Only two books carried one, for obvious reasons. This is a breather day for the Gamecocks, and I’d expect them to get the starters out of this one early on to rest up for Clemson. The total is set at 49.5, making the implied final score 46.5-3. That sounds about right to me. I don’t see the Wofford offense being able to gain much momentum against the South Carolina defense, and even the backups for the Gamecocks on offense should be able to move with ease.

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina covers -42.5

The Citadel at No.17 Clemson (-49.5):

Likewise, Clemson gets a rest game here before dealing with South Carolina. I’d expect the starters for maybe a quarter to work on a few things for the Gamecocks and then to see the backups the rest of the way. The total is set at 58.5, making this implied final score something in the range of 55-3. I just don’t like that number. Clemson’s backups have shown they can score this season, and I don’t expect the Citadel to move the ball a ton on this Clemson front. Expect some short fields, quick scores, and an easy day. Just not a cover, as Citadel likely breaks off at least one big run for a score.

Score Prediction: 52-10 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Citadel covers +49.5