Keys to Victory: Clemson vs. No. 4 Miami

The Match-Up:

Clemson (3-1, 2-0 ACC) vs. No. 4 Miami (4-0, 2-0 ACC)

Death Valley gets the spotlight Saturday night as Clemson welcomes undefeated No. 4 Miami. The winner will be the first team to reach 3-0 in ACC play this season. The Tigers have won three straight games since the 51-10 loss at LSU; this is unquestionably their biggest test since that season-opening disaster.

Kickoff:

• Saturday, Oct. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC (Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe)
• Radio: Clemson Athletic Network (Don Munson, Jeff Scott, Tim Bourret)
• Satellite Radio: SiriusXM 175 or 234
• Venue: Memorial Stadium | Clemson, S.C.

Last Week: Clemson went across the country and returned with a 24-10 victory over Cal. The Tigers held the Golden Bears to only three offensive points and 231 total yards, while Elliot Washington II intercepted two passes. Offensively, Gideon Davidson continued his emergence with 159 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries, including a 75-yard touchdown that put the game away. Bryant Wesco Jr. added a 65-yard punt-return touchdown.

Series History:

It doesn’t get much more even than this.

Clemson and Miami have played 14 times, and the series is tied 7-7. It’s also tied 2-2 in Clemson, 4-4 at Miami, and 1-1 on neutral sites. Miami won the most recent meeting, 28-20 in double overtime in 2023.

The series has produced some memorable Clemson moments, including an upset of a Top-10 Miami team in 2004, a 40-37 Clemson victory over No. 8 Miami in 2009 and Clemson’s 58-0 win in Miami Gardens in 2015.

Saturday night breaks the tie.

Tim Bourret’s Perspective:

Tim Bourret sees some historical precedent for just how dramatically a Clemson win Saturday could change the perception of this season. He pointed back to 2003, when Clemson was coming off a lopsided loss at Wake Forest before stunning No. 3 Florida State.

“If you’re looking at single-game surprise victories, to me still one of the most surprising was when we beat Florida State in 2003, coming off a 45-10 loss at Wake Forest... And then we beat a number three-ranked Florida State team the next week.”

Bourret also sees something in freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds, even if he cautions that Clemson hasn’t yet seen the kind of signature moment that immediately announced the arrival of Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence.

“He does have some confidence, but he’s also a guy that knows he makes mistakes, but he takes them the right way, and he’s going to correct it.”

Maybe Saturday night provides Reynolds with his first real splash moment.

Swanny's Rant & Reality Check:

I don’t think the talent gap between these teams is as enormous as some people would have you believe.

But there is one spot where Miami clearly has the advantage right now: quarterback.

That’s the reality for Clemson. Reynolds is a true freshman making his third career start against the No. 4 team in the country. He’s going to make mistakes. But there’s something about his confidence, his energy and the way he responds that I like.

And Clemson is not the same team that walked out of Baton Rouge after getting beat 51-10.

The Tigers have won three straight. Davidson has emerged in the backfield. The defense just shut down a Cal passing attack that entered the game ranked among the nation’s best. Washington has three interceptions over the past two games, and Ashton Hampton enters this week leading the nation in passes defended.

Does that mean Clemson is ready to beat Miami?

We’re about to find out.

But this is Death Valley. At night. Against the No. 4 team in America.

Make them earn it.

Keys to Victory:

Make Darian Mensah Uncomfortable: This starts with Clemson’s defensive front. Miami has an experienced quarterback in Darian Mensah, and Clemson cannot allow him to settle into the game. Will Heldt is one of only four FBS players with multiple two-sack games this season, and the Tigers need him, Sammy Brown, London Merritt, Amare Adams and the rest of the front to affect Mensah without constantly forcing Tom Allen to manufacture pressure. If Clemson can get Mensah’s feet moving and let Hampton and Washington challenge Miami’s receivers, the Tigers have a chance to make this uncomfortable.

Ride Gideon Davidson: Why get cute now? Davidson has rushed for 105 and 159 yards in his last two games and is Clemson’s first back with consecutive 100-yard games since 2024. He’s also trying to become Clemson’s first player with three straight 100-yard rushing games since Travis Etienne in 2019.

Clemson needs the running game to shorten this game, keep Miami’s offense on the sideline, and take pressure off Reynolds. If Davidson is approaching 20 carries again, that’s probably a good sign for the Tigers. One thing I’ve said all week, though, is that Davidson’s carries need to average 4.2 or more without a big burst-type run. More consistent distance is more key than one breakout.

Give Tait a Chance to Have His Moment: Reynolds is attempting to join Watson and Lawrence as the only Clemson true freshman quarterbacks since 1972 to start their careers 3-0. But this isn’t about asking him to be Watson or Lawrence. Clemson needs to protect him, stay ahead of the chains and give him manageable situations. Then, when the opportunity comes, Reynolds has to hit something down the field. Clemson managed only 106 passing yards at Cal. That probably won’t be enough against Miami. At some point Saturday night, Reynolds is going to have to make a play. Maybe this is where we find out if he has that splash moment Tim Bourret was talking about.

Prediction:

I’m just going to be real about this one.

As I noted above, I don’t believe the talent gap between Clemson and Miami is as large as some people think. But I do believe Miami has the advantage at the most important position on the field right now.

What I like about Reynolds is the confidence and leadership I see, which makes me think he’ll keep improving. What I don’t know is whether he’s ready, in his third career start, to beat the No. 4 team in the country.

I also don’t think Clemson is as bad as that 51-10 loss at LSU made everybody believe.

Tonight might prove that even in a loss.

I expect Clemson to fight. I expect Death Valley to be rocking. I think the defense can make Miami work for it, and I think Davidson gives Clemson a way to stay in the game.

But in the end, I’m not ready to pick the Tigers to pull off the upset.

The Pick: Miami 31, Clemson 20

Season Record: 4-0

Swanny's Predictions: