Keys to Victory: 2019 Fiesta Bowl

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Each week we give you a look at the history of the game, three keys to success, plus our staff predictions.

The Match-Up:

#3 Clemson (13-0, 8-0 ACC) vs #2 Ohio State (13-0, 9-0 Big Ten)

Clemson vs. Ohio State 2016

Clemson vs. Ohio State 2014

All-Time Series:

Clemson leads: 3-0
at Clemson: N/A
at Ohio State: N/A
Neutral: 3-0
Last Meeting: Clemson won 31-0 (2016 Fiesta Bowl in the CFP Semifinal)
Last Ohio State win: N/A
Streak: Clemson has won 3 straight in the series

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Stat of the Week:

Clemson has a 110-15 record since starting its current stretch of 10-win seasons in 2011. Only Alabama (113-12) has more wins since 2011. The Tigers also have the second-highest winning percentage (.880) in that time frame.

The recent success has been particularly pronounced during Clemson's streak of College Football Playoff appearances since 2015. Clemson leads Alabama for the most wins in the country in that span, while the teams have split two national championships in that time frame.

Clemson's 68 wins during the 2015-19 seasons also represent the most in a five-year period in the AP Poll era (since 1936).

Tracking History:

Travis Etienne surpassed James Davis as the second leading rusher in Clemson history with his 114-yard performance in the ACC Championship against UVA. Etienne, a junior, needs just 43 yards to become Clemson’s all-time leading rusher.

Etienne also needs just six more rushing touchdowns to become only the 12th player in FBS history to record 60 career rushing touchdowns in a career.

Key 1: Win the LOS

It seems simple, but in this matchup between two of the best teams in the country, winning at the line-of-scrimmage is going to be huge. Offensively, the Tigers experience has to be seen as a huge advantage, while the Buckeyes Chase Young presents an interesting problem, given his versatility. The Heisman Trophy finalist can disrupt every play and Ohio native, Jackson Carman, will face his toughest collegiate test tonight.

On the flip side, Clemson defensive line, and Xavier Thomas specifically has the ability to influence the game similarly. The Tigers faced tremendous losses a year ago up front, but have done an excellent job all season presenting different fronts and being more multiple than we can ever remember.

This Clemson defense, along with Isaiah Simmons, the Tigers’ freakishly gifted linebacker, should be the most talented group that Ohio State’s potent offense has faced all year.

Key 2: Play with an edge

Has there ever been an undefeated, defending champion that’s been doubted more than the Tigers? Sure, Vegas has Dabo Swinney’s squad as a 2-point favorite, but nationally Clemson has been on the backburner to LSU and this Ohio State team. That fact alone should be more than enough reason for the Tigers to be amped up about an opportunity to showcase what they can do.

As Trevor Lawrence said last week with a smile on his face, “Everyone said we haven't played anyone all year. So now we'll play 'someone' so we can, you know, show what we can do against 'someone.' So we'll see how that goes."

Asked to describe Clemson’s offense in one word, Lawrence said, “Explosive.”

It’s go time.

Key 3: Stay balanced, Attack Fields

When you look at these two teams, there is no doubt about how balanced both have been all season long. The Tigers are currently the 4th best scoring offense (46.5 ppg) and are No. 1 in scoring defense (10.6 ppg). The Buckeyes enter with the No. 1 scoring offense (48.7) and the 3rd best defense in America (12.5 ppg).

Last season, Clemson entered the College Football Playoff with the same conversations about the strength of the ACC. Perhaps, as we’ve noted several times, maybe that just speaks more about Clemson’s strength. 

If the Tigers just play their game, they’ve got a great chance to advance.

As for the Buckeyes, offensively, they will want to establish J.K. Dobbins early in hopes of softening up Clemson's secondary. If they can do that, quarterback Justin Fields will have an easier time in the downfield passing game. But there has been some thought that Fields might not be 100% after suffering a knee injury earlier this season.

Friday, Buckeyes’ head coach Ryan Day said, “He’s doing great,” when asked about Fields. However, the Ohio State quarterback said Tuesday that he was about “80-85%”. 

If Fields is not entirely healthy, that feels like a massive opportunity for the Tigers to bring pressure defensively.

Prediction:

These two teams have the most significant margin of victory this year, with Ohio State averaging wins of 36.2 ppg while Clemson is second winning by an average of 35.9 points per game. It’s safe to say that it should end up being a tight contest.

On paper, the two teams match up very well, and both are strong on both offense and defense. Mistakes will be crucial, and last season, Brent Venables was able to confuse Tua Tagovailoa during the national championship. There isn’t any reason to doubt that Venables can do the same against Justin Fields.    

The Tigers offense continues to make plays with Trevor Lawrence hitting Tee Higgins, and Justyn Ross over the top and Travis Etienne has a solid performance, keeping the Buckeyes honest. 

In the end, Clemson’s defense makes more plays, and the Tigers head to New Orleans for a shot at their third national championship in four seasons.

Swanny’s Prediction: 38-30 Clemson

Final Score Predictions: 

Perfect Prediction = 5 points              Best Prediction = 3 Points         Correct Prediction = 1 Point 

👑= 2018 Prediction Champion

**Pick of the Week: Indicates the best prediction.