Exceeding Expectations: Top 5 teams that have proved the doubters wrong so far
CLEMSON -- On November 5th, 2017, the Tennessee Volunteers traveled to Littlejohn Coliseum for an exhibition game against Clemson for charity.
The NCAA approved the Tigers to host the exhibition game so money could be raised for the Salvation Army's hurricane relief efforts in Texas and Florida.
The game wasn’t televised.
The thought of an exhibition game against a quality power-five opponent was welcomed. It’d be a better measuring stick for both teams to play an exhibition game against a quality opponent.
During the game, Clemson was down by 17 at home but rallied back to make it a one-point game in the final minute. The Tigers ended up losing 71-67, their only loss in Littlejohn this season.
That game brought up concerns from both sides’ fan bases. Tennessee let the lead slip away while Clemson was still finding itself without Jaron Blossomgame.
Not many thought either team would be in the position they are in three months later.
Clemson was picked by the media in the preseason to finish 13th in the ACC out 15 teams. Tennessee was picked to finish 13th as well. It’s safe to say that both teams have exceeded expectations so far.
Clemson is 18-4, 7-3 in conference play and ranked No. 20 in current AP poll. Tennessee is 16-5, 6-3 in the SEC and is No. 18.
That got us thinking: What other teams around the country have spurned the media and are exceeding expectations in their respective conference themselves?
We ranked them.
5. Washington - Picked: 10th, Currently 3rd
The Huskies finished 11th in the PAC-12 out of 12 teams a year ago, going 0-6 against teams in the top 25. So far this season they have changed their narrative.
Washington is currently 16-6, 6-3 in the conference. According to warrennolan.com, Its Rating Percentage Index (RPI) is at 49 and strength of record is No. 54. So a bit above average, but the lowest of the five teams we are considering. The Huskies have a great win on the road against Kansas, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.
But bad losses to Stanford at home, UCLA on the road (by 19 points) and Virginia Tech on a neutral floor (by 24 points) have hindered the Huskies from moving up in the ranks. The PAC-12’s conference RPI also ranks fifth out of ten conferences.
Washington has four players who average double-figures, including Jaylen Nowell, who leads the team with 16.7 points per game. The Huskies have embraced their underdog status and have a huge game at home against Arizona tonight to keep making strides in the right direction.
A win there and an NCAA tournament appearance could be rewarded.
4. Texas Tech - Picked 7th, Currently 2nd
In Chris Beard’s first season as head coach, the Red Raiders finished 7th in the Big-12. In return, the media projected them not to improve, but stick in the middle of the pack of the conference when the 2017-2018 is done.
Now that we are in February, Texas Tech has earned its status as the second-best team in the conference. The Red Raiders are 14-0 at home, 17 in RPI, and No. 10 in the AP top 25. Their strength of record is 13, not surprising given the conference that they play in.
Texas Tech’s best wins are at home against West Virginia and on the road at, again, Kansas. Its worst loss came on the road at Iowa State by 18 points.
The Big-12 is currently a gauntlet for teams to face. Every team is capable of beating each other, and that’s what makes the league so compelling this time of year. The conference is arguably the best basketball conference in the country this season, making Texas Tech’s success even more impressive.
3. Ohio State - Picked 11th, Now 2nd
Ohio State was 7-11 in conference play a season ago, finishing 10th in the Big Ten. This season, they were picked to fall to 11th in the conference when everything was said and done.
Sitting currently at second in the conference, the Buckeyes have raised a ton of eyebrows around the league and country. They have won seven regular-season conference games this season by 10 or more points.
The Buckeyes only have one loss in conference, a home loss to Penn State at the buzzer. Other than that, the Buckeyes don’t have any bad losses on their schedule.
Ohio State’s biggest win came at home against No. 5 Michigan State by 16 points. The Buckeyes are 22 in RPI and currently have a strength of schedule of 33. Their strength of record at this point is 15, which is pretty high on our list.
Chris Holtmann has done a heck of a job in his first year as head coach. In fact, Holtmann-coached teams have won ten or more conference games in the last five years. The head coach has at least 20 or more wins in his last four years as a head coach.
Ohio State looks to continue its run with its biggest game of the season, on the road at Purdue, in a few days. If the Buckeyes win that game, they may deserve to be higher on our list.
2. Clemson - Picked 13th, now tied for 2nd
The disparity between the top two teams on our list isn’t much, but the Tigers are where they belong. Clemson finished 7th in the ACC last season, but the media predicted it to end this season 13th.
The Tigers had to overcome the loss of Blossomgame, and not many people predicted they would figure it out. If Clemson couldn’t get over the hump a year ago, what makes people think it would happen this year?
Shocking the country, Clemson is ranked No. 20 in the country and currently tied for second in the ACC with No. 4 Duke.
Clemson may be further behind Duke in the rankings, but the resume speaks for itself. The Tigers are fifth in RPI and strength of schedule. Their strength of record is ninth in the country.
The Tigers have had to overcome a lot this season as well as make the uphill climb to prove the doubters wrong. Donte Grantham went down, and fans began to wonder if Clemson would fall back to the middle of the pack where it belonged. Since then, the Tigers are 2-0 and have their biggest win of the season against North Carolina at home.
Clemson’s undefeated at home and also has several quality wins against Miami, Louisville, and North Carolina. The Tigers also have a road win over the Buckeyes as mentioned earlier, 79-65 in Columbus. That road win against Ohio State has become more impressive by the week.
The Tigers are also doing this well against the ACC’s competition, which is probably the second-toughest league in America.
Brad Brownell finally has something going with his team and has winnable games left on the schedule to make a push in the ACC tournament. Getting by Duke or Virginia will be a tough task if the Tigers make it that far.
But even if they do make it that far, it’ll still be seen as a great season as Clemson looks to end its NCAA tournament drought.
1. Tennessee - Picked 13th, Now 3rd.
Picking between Clemson and Tennessee for the number one spot on this list was a coin flip. The Vols finished 12th in the SEC last season going 8-10 in the conference, whereas Clemson finished 7th. It’s been a steeper hill to climb after being picked to finish 13th this season.
Rick Barnes, who previously coached at Clemson in the 90s, has prepared his team well and they are clicking at the right time. Barnes was successful during his time at Clemson, leading the Tigers to a 4-seed in the NCAA tournament in 1997, tied for the best seed in school history.
Their resume is similar to Clemson’s.
The Volunteers have no bad losses. They have the best win of any team on our list, a victory over Purdue on a neutral floor (games in November still matter). Tennessee also got past Kentucky at home.
The best road win came for Tennessee when it beat South Carolina in Columbia by seven points.
Tennessee’s RPI is currently at 12 and has the eighth toughest schedule in the country. Its strength of record is also at 12.
Although Clemson may have the edge in those statistical categories by a slim margin, the Volunteers got this spot because many thought there wouldn’t be any improvement from last year to this year. This team was not supposed to be doing what it’s currently doing the SEC.
The climb has been tough, but this group is currently playing exceptionally well as the No. 18 team in the country.
Looking back to November, not many thought the exhibition in Clemson between two teams picked to finish almost last in their conferences would be ranked in the top 20.
No matter what happens from this point on, fans of these teams should be proud of what they have accomplished. It’s hard to get to the top; it’s even harder to stay there.
If Clemson and Tennessee continue to leap over the expectations that have been laid in front of them, perhaps there can be a rematch between these two teams.
This time, in March.
