Lowell's Locks: Conference Championship Week

Here we are, the final weekend of Lowell’s Locks. After a 3-3 record during rivalry week, the Locks are assured of an over .500 record this season, and now I’m playing with some house money this weekend. Ohio State fell to Michigan again, Louisville couldn’t pull it out against an average Kentucky squad, and Alabama needed a last-second miracle against Auburn to account for my losses last week. Washington State, Florida State, and Clemson took care of business for my wins. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend with huge playoff implications on the line, so let’s jump into it.

Friday, December 1st:

#5 Oregon (-9) vs. #3 Washington:

These two teams are seemingly going in opposite directions since their regular season meeting, a 36-33 Washington victory. The line reflects that. Oregon has been the better team this season and arguably was the better team in the first matchup. Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. are each looking for a Heisman moment, and I think Bo Nix finds his in this one. The Oregon defense gets enough stops for this to feel fairly comfortable.

Lowell’s Lock: Oregon covers -9

Saturday, December 2nd:

#18 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Texas (-15):

This is a poor matchup for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys rely on the run game, and the Longhorns give up just 85 yards rushing a game, good for 4^th in the nation. The Cowboys also don’t have a receiver that can stretch the Longhorns vertically, and the Texas offense has found some balance. This one gets out of hand early.

Lowell’s Lock: Texas covers -15

SMU vs. #22 Tulane (-3): 

There is one game that Tulane has not won this season, and that was a thriller at Ole Miss. Outside of that, the Green Wave are 11-1 and have won 10 in a row. With a backup quarterback playing for SMU, you can lock in 11-straight and a New Year’s Six bid for Tulane.

Lowell’s Lock: Tulane covers -3

#2 Michigan (-22) vs. #16 Iowa:

Forget covering the spread of 22 points. Can the Hawkeyes even get over 22 yards? The worst offense in the nation faces arguably the best defense in the country (sign stealing aside), and I can’t envision a scenario where this one isn’t an absolute bloodbath. Iowa will do their thing defensively for a half, but the Wolverines bury them in the third quarter.

Lowell’s Lock: Michigan covers -22

#1 Georgia (-5) vs. #8 Alabama:

Do you enjoy drama, chaos, and watching the playoff committee squirm? Then watch this game, and pull for Alabama. Both of these teams survived scares from their rivals and come into this one looking to lock up a playoff spot. Georgia has been able to turn it on when it has had to, and my initial thought was to roll with the Bulldogs, but something about this Alabama squad just has my attention. It’s not even close to the best Saban has had, but there is a team of destiny feeling to them after the Hail Mary victory against Auburn. They’re also the only team on Georgia’s schedule that can match them athlete for athlete, and Saban has the revenge factor in his back pocket. This should be a barn burner.

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama covers +5

#14 Louisville vs. #4 Florida State (-1.5):

It’s tempting to go with the Cardinals here with Jordan Travis out for the season for the Seminoles, but this Florida State squad is more than just its quarterback. This defense is ultra-athletic and incredibly good at taking the ball away, and turnovers were an issue for Louisville against Kentucky last week. The run defense needs to hold up against a Louisville squad averaging just north of 183 yards per game on the ground, and I think it will. A low-scoring affair in Charlotte seemingly sends the Noles to the college football playoff. Let the debate begin.

Lowell’s Locks: Florida State covers -1.5

Until next season, folks.