Lowell's Locks: Week Five

A second straight 4-2 week brings Lowell’s Locks over .500 for the first time this season, and it’s no coincidence the Locks and Clemson’s offense got hot at the same time. As the Locks go, so do the Tigers, obviously. We all know correlation implies causation. 

Illinois mucked things up against Nebraksa as they’re known to do, Utah handled business against Oklahoma State late, Tennesee controlled Oklahoma, and the Tigers walloped NC State for my four wins. USC choked away the game in the Big House against Michigan and Akron couldn’t hang in to cover a big spread against South Carolina for my losses. I can’t quite figure out the Gamecocks, as I’m now 1-3 picking their games this season. I’ll put the blame on their inconsistent play. 

We have another sneaky fun slate of games this week. Let’s get into it.

Friday, September 27th: 

Virginia Tech at No. 7 Miami (-19.5):

It feels pretty easy to see how this game is going to go. The Hokies have been crushed by miscues and turnovers at inopportune times, leading to slow starts and losses to start this season. Miami has started hot behind the play of quarterback Cam Ward, who is making his early-season push for Heisman consideration. The Hokies have a good defense and can hang in there for a little bit, but a one-dimensional offense leads to the doors being blown off in the second half. 

Lowell’s Lock: Miami covers -19.5

Saturday, September 28th:

No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State (-5):

This feels like a must-win game for both teams. Kansas State got blown out in embarrassing fashion by BYU last week, while Oklahoma State looked lifeless until late in the second half against Utah. There are questions on offense for both squads, but the Wildcats are at home. The sharp money is actually coming in on the Cowboys, so fade me if you trust that, but I like Kansas State to have the bounceback game. 

Lowell’s Lock: Kansas State covers -5

No.15 Louisville at No.16 Notre Dame (-6.5):

I’m not sure what exactly Notre Dame has done to earn almost a touchdown spread against an undefeated Lousiville squad, but I don’t trust it. The sharp money and I agree about Louisville here. I’ve been a big fan of Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough since watching him in a few injury-riddled seasons at Texas Tech, and I think he has the ability to keep the chains moving against a fierce Notre Dame defense. The Irish will likely have some issues moving the ball against Louisville’s defensive front as well, allowing this to remain tight.

Lowell’s Lock: Louisville covers +6.5

No. 2 Georgia (-2) at No. 4 Alabama:

This is the biggest game of the season so far. Georgia looked every bit like the top team in the country against Clemson, then turned around and got into a fight with Kentucky. Georgia seems to find themselves sleepwalking at times (remember the South Carolina game last year?). Alabama found themselves in a battle with South Florida for the second straight year but then turned around and handled business against Wisconsin. This isn’t a must-win for either team, as both will likely still be in the playoffs, but it is important to establish the pecking order of college football. To this point, I’ve been more impressed by the Bulldog's ability to smother teams defensively, and I think Carson Beck will have a rock-steady game in helping the Bulldogs sneak away with a win.

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia covers -2

No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (-18):

I mentioned last week how Illinois and Bret Bielema have the ability to muddy up games and make them ugly, and that’s exactly what they did to Nebraska last week, knocking off freshman sensation Dylan Raiola in Lincoln. Penn State finally managed to find a downfield attack last week, but I need to see them do it to someone in the Power Four, not Kent State. It’s a whiteout in Happy Valley, and I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win, but I think Illinois can once again muddy up a game and keep it close. Or at least close enough to cover 18 points.

Lowell’s Lock: Illinois covers +18

Stanford at No. 17 Clemson (-20.5):

Stanford got a big win last week, traveling to Syracuse and knocking off a feisty Orange squad in a slight upset. Their reward after winning and flying back home? Flying back to the East Coast, this time to Death Valley. 

The Cardinals have been good against the run this season. Couple that with their ability to hold onto the ball (averaging about 32 minutes of possession per game), and they have a recipe for winning. Stop the run, run the ball yourself, and keep the Tigers off the field.  

The Clemson offensive and defensive fronts will have something to say about that. Clemson pulls away again late in the first half. 

Score Prediction: 42-20 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -20.5