Keys to Victory: No. 14 Clemson at Florida State

Each week, we review the game’s history, three keys to success, and Swanny’s prediction.

The Match-Up:

No. 15/14 Clemson (3-1, 2-0 ACC) vs. Florida State (1-4, 1-3 ACC)

Florida State holds a 21-15 advantage in the series with Clemson dating back to the schools’ first meeting, a 38-13 Florida State win in Tallahassee in 1970. Clemson has a 13-7 advantage over the last 20 games, including wins in seven of the last eight meetings.

Clemson is 7-2 in its last nine meetings against the Seminoles, with both Florida State wins coming in overtime. Florida State's last regulation win in the series came in 2013.

Series History:

• OVERALL: Clemson trails series, 15-21
• HOME: Series is tied, 9-9
• ROAD: Clemson trails series, 6-12
• NEUTRAL: N/A
• LAST MEETING: Sept. 23, 2023 (31-24, L)
• STREAK: Florida State, Won 1

Roster:

Rosters will be released by Clemson two hours before kickoff.

Stat of the Week:

Clemson is attempting to become only the fourth program ever to win four consecutive road games against Florida State in Tallahassee, joining Florida (six straight from 1966-76), Houston (four from 1966-78), and Miami (Fla.) (five from 1957-77 and four from 1981-87).

Chasing History:

Clemson Head Coach Dabo Swinney will attempt to make conference history and pass a college football icon on a playing surface bearing that icon's name. With 173 career wins, Swinney enters the game tied with College Football Hall of Famer Bobby Bowden for the conference record for career head coaching victories leading an ACC program. Of Bowden's 377 NCAA-recognized career head coaching victories, 173 of his wins came during Florida State's membership in the ACC. A win on Saturday on Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium would push Swinney past Bowden into sole possession of the ACC record.

"I have a picture in my office of when I had one win — one. It's a picture of me and Bobby Bowden. We lost the first game to Georgia Tech as an interim and then we won at Boston College and then we've got to go down to Tallahassee to play the Noles and Bobby Bowden," Swinney said postgame last Saturday after tying Bowden's mark. "He was one of the first people to call me that night as an interim. He became a mentor of mine, a friend of mine. He impacted me greatly both through Tommy and himself. I can't express enough how much love I have for him and the entire Bowden family... I've still got voicemails on my phone from him; he would call me and encourage me long after he was out of coaching."

Memorable Moments: 

1988: Florida State defeated Clemson, 24-21, aided by an intricate fake punt executed by Bobby Bowden’s team against the Tigers. The “Puntrooskie” went for 78 yards on a run by LeRoy Butler, and the first down at the Clemson two-yard line led to the winning field goal for Florida State. Clemson’s defense stiffened but Richie Andrews kicked a 19-yard field goal with 32 seconds left to give Florida State the victory. Both teams finished that season in the top 10.

1999-2007: These games represented the annual Bowden Bowl, as Clemson was coached by Tommy Bowden and Florida State by Bobby Bowden. Bobby had a 5-4 advantage in those nine games, but Tommy won the last three. They remain the only meetings of father and son head coaches in FBS history. The first Bowden Bowl came in 1999, a 17-14 victory for Florida State. That FSU team went on to win the national championship, and the 17 points and three-point victory margin were season lows for Florida State in that championship season. It was the closest Clemson had come to beating the No. 1 ranked team in the nation until the National Championship Game to end the 2016 season.

2003: Clemson upset a third-ranked Florida State team by a 26-10 score in a nationally televised Saturday night game at Death Valley. Florida State was coming off a 37-0 win at Notre Dame, and Clemson was coming off a 45-17 loss at Wake Forest. Florida State had won 11 consecutive games in the series prior to the game.

2009: C.J. Spiller put on a show for the ages with 312 all-purpose yards, then an all-time Clemson record, in a 40-24 victory. It was a big win on the way to Clemson’s first Atlantic Division championship. It was Bobby Bowden’s last game against Clemson. He had a 14-7 all-time record against Clemson but lost his last four appearances at Death Valley. However, his 6-4 record in the facility still represents the most victories at Clemson by an opposing head coach, one ahead of Georgia’s Vince Dooley (five).

2018: Clemson routed Florida State, 59-10, in Tallahassee, the largest home loss in Florida State history. But the runaway win featured a little bit of historical symmetry. One of Clemson’s touchdowns was scored on a two-yard touchdown run by tight end Garrett Williams, who scored his first career touchdown in the stadium in which his father, Dayne, played collegiately for Florida State. In 1988, Dayne was the upback who received the snap and handed the ball to LeRoy Butler on the infamous Puntrooskie against Clemson.

2020: Clemson traveled to Tallahassee, but the game was postponed roughly three hours prior to kickoff and later canceled altogether. Previously, the last time Clemson had a game postponed after the team had already traveled to the site was in 1963, when the Tigers were slated to play South Carolina on Saturday, Nov. 23. Clemson returned from that 1963 trip to Columbia after the game was postponed following the assassination of President John F. Kennedy.

Key 1: Constant Pressure on Glenn 

The storyline of Clemson versus D.J. Uiagalelei was going to be one Tiger fans talked about for a long time. Unfortunately, an injury will keep the former Tiger signal caller from playing against several former teammates in one of the ACC’s best rivalries, regardless of the Noles’ 1-4 start.

Now the honus will fall on sophomore Brock Glenn against Clemson’s defense, and it’s hard to imagine that Tiger defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin won’t find a way to put pressure in Glenn’s face from the first snap. 

I tend to believe that a backup quarterback in a situation like this is a losing proposition, but that was how I felt a year ago when Clemson ventured down to Miami to face the Hurricanes minus Tyler Van Dyke. Unheralded backup, sophomore Emory Williams did just enough to help the Canes to an overtime win—but most importantly, he didn’t beat his own team with horrendous mistakes. 

My guess is that Glenn doesn’t avoid that same fate, giving the Tigers plenty of opportunities to win tonight.

Key 2: Wheels of Steel

The Clemson running game has started to sort itself out, and thus far, my favorite back behind Phil Mafah has emerged, and Jay Haynes is beginning to get more carries. But this game is about the bell cow, Mafah. The Tigers have been able to minimize the wear and tear on Mafah this season with several blowout wins, giving the Tigers leader an opportunity to make plays and rest.

As for Haynes, he’s a great compliment to Mafah and, as I expected, is getting the second-largest share of carries this season. Mix in Cade Klubnik’s ability to make plays on the ground, and the Tigers have a unit that should push for the 200-yard mark game in and game out.

Key 3: Deep Route Dominance

Last weekend seemed to signify a huge moment for the Clemson passing game—a line of demarcation, if you will—as Garrett Riley continued to open up the deep passing game, most notably his willingness to dial up the deep ball on a regular basis.

Look back at the response when T.J. Moore’s reception was overturned by review—Riley went right back to it, finding Cole Turner for a touchdown. It was a moment that I won’t forget because it seemed to showcase that what I saw at TCU under Riley was finally taking place at Clemson.

The Tigers continued to push the football down the field, taking shot after shot against Stanford, and the group's confidence is visible. Outside of a handful of underthrown balls, Klubnik and his host of wideouts put pressure on the Cardinal all afternoon.

Now, with the most talented but somewhat disinterested Seminole defense in front of them, I want to see the same mindset we’ve watched over the past three games on display in Tallahassee. If Clemson can hit on a few plays early, I think the Florida State players will begin to let up, allowing the Tigers to assert their dominance in the downfield passing game. 

Prediction:

It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to figure out that Clemson and Florida State are teams in completely different places from where they were a year ago. The Tigers stumbled out of the gates in 2023 and still managed to hang with a Seminole squad that cried about being left out of the playoff after losing starting quarterback Jordan Travis after going 13-0. 

I totally understood their frustration with the system, but I could never fathom the response from players and the media members who covered the program—many of whom excused the opt-outs. 

When you bail out on an opportunity to battle Georgia, which had won the past two national titles, it speaks to your culture. If you’ve watched Florida State this season, you’ve continued to see those same issues, and I, for one, am not surprised. 

Clemson is easily the best team Florida State has faced, so I expect a Tiger win, but given the state of things in Tallahassee, this one could be much uglier than I predict.

Clemson 34, Florida State 10

Swanny’s Record: 4-0

Swanny’s Predictions: 

✅ = Correct Prediction

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