Lowell's Locks: Week Seven

Back to back, 3-3 weeks have the Locks just running in place. Texas A&M throttled Missouri at home, and Washington and Clemson each took care of business at home to account for the three wins. Louisville fell to SMU, Georgia couldn’t quite cover a large spread against Auburn, and I still can’t figure out South Carolina to account for the three losses. There are some massive games with playoff implications this weekend, and this is when the cream rises to the top. You can count the locks in that category, too.

Saturday, October 12th:

No.1 Texas (-14.5) vs. No.18 Oklahoma in Dallas:

It’s been a crazy season with a lot of upsets so far, particularly last weekend. I’m not sure if Oklahoma will pull this thing off, but I certainly think they’ll have a shot. The pass rush for the Sooners will keep this thing close against Quinn Ewers, who will be playing for the first time in a month, while Seth Littrell and the offense throw the kitchen sink at Texas to get things moving in the right direction. 

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma covers +14.5

No.4 Penn State (-3.5) at USC:

I’m not quite sure how I feel about Penn State yet, but I absolutely have no faith in Lincoln Riley and USC after last weekend’s loss to Minnesota. The defense, which had seemingly made strides in week one, has suddenly fallen off a cliff, especially in the running game. I expect Penn State to flex its advantage in the trenches and get out of Los Angeles with a win.

Lowell’s Lock: Penn State covers -3.5

No.2 Ohio State (-3) at No.3 Oregon:

This will be the first real test of the season for either team, although the Ducks did sneak away from Heisman front-runner Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos 37-34 in week two. Both quarterbacks Will Howard (Ohio State) and Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) have been uber-efficient this season, with both over 70 percent completion and a combined 23 passing touchdowns. The Boise State game aside, both of these defenses have been tough, and I expect some big plays from the side of the ball. I like the Ducks to cover in Eugene, but a win will be tough against some explosive Buckeyes wide receivers. Either way, we should be in for a classic.

Lowell’s Lock: Oregon covers +3

No. 9 Ole Miss (-3.5) at No.13 LSU:

This is a must-win game for both teams, and it also feels like a game ripe for some chaos. Both teams are capable of playing some strong defense, and both teams are also capable of putting up points in bunches. This could be a “who has the ball last” kind of game, and I’d be a fool to pick against LSU at home in a night game.

Lowell’s Lock: LSU covers +3.5

South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama (-21.5):

While South Carolina fans were reveling in Alabama’s 40-35 loss last weekend (to Vanderbilt!), they may have forgotten to look at the schedule to see who’s next. South Carolina’s defense has been very good this year, and that will help them hang in early. However, the Gamecocks are dead last in the country in sacks and tackles for loss allowed. The Tide should be jacked up for this one, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and quarterback Jalen Milroe and freshman receiver sensation Ryan Williams will connect on big plays to get the Tide back on track.

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama covers -21.5

No. 10 Clemson (-20.5) at Wake Forest:

Wake Forest got a surprising upset win over NC State last weekend, and they did so on the defensive side of the ball, forcing a handful of turnovers. They’ll struggle to do that against a red-hot Clemson offense. The Clemson defense, which has been suspect at times against the run, shouldn’t have that issue against a Wake Forest offense that likes to air it out. The Deacons are also giving up a lot of sacks and tackles for loss, and the Clemson front should have a field day in the backfield.

Score Prediction: 42-17 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -20.5