Lowell's Locks: Week Nine

What do the Locks and Alabama football have in common? They’re both seemingly at rock bottom. 

An 0-6 record marks the worst week in Locks history. There were a couple of bad breaks, like Virginia scoring late to get the backdoor cover against Clemson and Louisville just running out of gas against Miami. The rest of the games weren’t even close, however. South Carolina, who I still can’t pick correctly, took Oklahoma to the woodshed. Notre Dame controlled Georgia Tech throughout, and Georgia had a similar path to victory against Texas. Alabama can’t figure out the state of Tennessee, as they’ve now lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee in two of the past three weeks. 

The good news is, there’s nowhere to go but up. The Locks rally back this weekend. I’m not sure if I can say the same for Alabama. 

Saturday, October 26th

No.12 Notre Dame (-13.5) at No. 24 Navy:

This reads to me like an easy upset alert game. Navy is always a danger to pull the upset because of their style of play that emphasizes ball control, but the Midshipmen legitimately have an explosive passing game now to boot. The Irish are obviously the more talented team, and they’ve been on a tear lately, which caused the inflated line, but they’ve had issues against the run and giving up explosive plays through the air at times. Navy can not only cover—they can win this game and dash the Irish’s playoff hopes.

Lowell’s Lock: Navy covers +13.5

No.20 Illinois at No.1 Oregon (-22.5):

I certainly believe that Oregon is one of the top teams in the country, but this line is too big for my liking. The pace of this game should be slower than Oregon likes, which would allow the Illini to hang around. I’ve spoken in the past about how they like to muddy up games, and I see this going similarly. The Ducks will likely pull away in the second half, but I don’t think there will be enough scoring to cover.

Lowell’s Lock: Illinois covers +22.5

No.21 Missouri at No.15 Alabama (-17.5):

It’s tough to make out what either of these teams really are, but my faith in Alabama is at an all-time low right now. The defense isn’t terrible, but it’s giving up way too many explosive plays. They’ve also given up at least 200 yards rushing in two of the last six games, a stat that would be unheard of in previous years. Missouri has enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep this close.

Lowell’s Lock: Missouri covers +17.5

No.8 LSU at No.14 Texas A&M (-1):

This one is a true toss-up and could have a big hand in shaping the playoff race. Both teams have been playing well of late, but I see the Aggies as more balanced. They’re 12th in the nation in rushing at 218 yards per game, and while the passing game isn’t putting up gaudy numbers, it really hasn’t had to. When they do throw, they’re doing so efficiently, and they’re backed by a defense that’s turned up the pressure in recent weeks. LSU brings in an explosive passing game but doesn’t run the ball well, and the defense still isn’t where it needs to be. I like the home team here.

Lowell’s Lock: Texas A&M covers -1

No.3 Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin:

Here’s where we find out what Penn State is made of. They play at Camp Randall this week and then turn around and get Ohio State at home the next. Wisconsin has been dominant defensively the past three games, giving up a combined 16 points (5.3 PPG), and the offense seems to have found something, particularly on the ground. Penn State typically has a very good run defense but gave up nearly eight yards per carry to USC two weeks ago. Penn State keeps winning, but the wins are getting increasingly stressful. This is going to be a fight and is potentially a trap game with the aforementioned Buckeyes coming to town next weekend.

Lowell’s Lock: Wisconsin covers +6.5