Lowell's Locks: Week Ten
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It’s been a rough stretch of weeks for the Locks.
Since going 4-2 in week seven, the Locks have seen historic back-to-back week lows, with 0-6 and 2-4 records. The worst part of it is that it can’t even be argued that they’re bad beats. Notre Dame, Oregon, Alabama, and Penn State all handled business with ease, handing the Locks a handful of losses along the way.
Now, we’re hitting the home stretch. Week ten. A lot of hopes will be made or broken this weekend. Mine included.
Saturday, October 2nd
No.4 Ohio State (-3.5) at No.3 Penn State:
This is the moment Penn State headman James Franklin has been building towards. This is the most well-rounded team of his tenure, with explosive players on offense and a shut-down defense. The question is, can they take the next step?
There’s a reason Penn State is a home underdog despite being the higher-ranked team, and a lot of that likely has to do with Franklin’s 1-9 record against the Buckeyes. Ohio State has plenty of talent themselves, and their defense is no slouch, either. That, combined with Penn State’s struggles on offense at times, means I need to see them beat the Buckeyes before I believe it.
Lowell’s Lock: Ohio State covers -3.5
No.1 Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan:
I’ve gone back and forth a few times, trying to decide if this will be tight at home for Michigan or a total blowout. I’m leaning towards the latter. Michigan is too one-dimensional for my liking, and while their defense will let them hang around for a while, the Ducks bust off some explosive plays in the second half to pull away.
Lowell’s Lock: Oregon covers -14.5
Florida vs. No.2 Georgia (-14.5):
Florida has shown some over the past few weeks, but Georgia presents a different beast. They don’t quite have the same explosive ability on offense as some previous Bulldog squads, but they shouldn’t need it here. The defense will be all over the Gators en route to a comfortable win.
Lowell’s Lock: Georgia covers -14.5
No.18 Pittsburgh at No.20 SMU (-7.5):
Arguably, it is the game of the year so far in the ACC, as undefeated Pitt travels to Dallas to take on the one-loss Mustangs. The one loss this season for SMU came early in the season against BYU in a low-scoring affair, and I think that happens again. Pittsburgh ranks in the top 20 in both sacks and tackles for loss, and they should be able to disrupt the SMU offense. On the opposite side of the ball, the Panthers' offense will be able to generate long drives and points against an average SMU defense. I like the mild upset here.
Lowell’s Lock: Pittsburgh covers +7.5
No.10 Texas A&M (-3) at South Carolina:
One of these days, I will pick a South Carolina game correctly, and I believe this is the week. With Conner Weigman hurt against LSU, backup quarterback Marcel Reed stepped in and delivered a brilliant performance against LSU for a big win. Reed presents a unique dynamic with his legs, and with the South Carolina pass rush being as aggressive as it is, I’d expect a lot of designed quarterback runs from the Aggies to hit them with big plays when the rush gets upfield. On the flip side, the South Carolina offense still hasn’t found much of anything, and the Aggies should live in the Gamecocks’ backfield; South Carolina is 133rd in sacks allowed and 130th in tackles for loss allowed. A&M is 38th in sacks and 12th in tackles for loss.
Lowell’s Lock: Texas A&M covers -3
Louisville at No.11 Clemson (-10):
Not all three loss teams are created equally. Louisville’s three losses this season were by seven points apiece to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami. The Cardinals possess an explosive offense and will be able to put up some points on the Tigers, but the defense is not good. The Cardinals are giving up 359 yards and 25 points per game, and they gave up at least 30 in all three losses. They also rank 86th in the country in turnover margin and aren’t turning teams over at a particularly high rate-- they’ve forced only two interceptions so far this season. That’s a bad place to be against a Clemson offense that’s found its footing and is playing in its first night game of the season.
Score Prediction: 38-20 Clemson
Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -10
Lowell’s Locks |
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| Weekly Results | Season Results | |
| Week 1 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Week 2 | 2-4 | 5-7 |
| Week 3 | 4-2 | 9-9 |
| Week 4 | 4-2 | 13-11 |
| Week 5 | 3-3 | 16-14 |
| Week 6 | 3-3 | 19-17 |
| Week 7 | 4-2 | 23-19 |
| Week 8 | 0-6 | 23-25 |
| Week 9 | 2-4 | 25-29 |
| Week 10 | ||
| Week 11 | ||
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Conference Championships | ||