Lowell's Locks: Week Five

It’s never as good or bad as it seems. 

That’s the takeaway here, following three weeks of a 5-1 record, a 1-5 record, and now a 3-3 record. The good news is, I can’t get the Clemson game wrong this week, so we’re off to a good start. 

We have some absolutely MASSIVE match-ups this week with a few games that could have playoff seeding implications. Let’s get into it.

Saturday, September 27th

#1 Ohio State (-8.5) at Washington:

Ohio State brings the heavier hands up front and the deeper defense. Washington can pop chunk plays at home, but sustaining drives against this front is a different ask. Early field position matters, then the Buckeyes settle in, lean on efficient shots, and squeeze the game after halftime.

Lowell’s Lock: Ohio State covers -8.5

#4 LSU at #13 Ole Miss (-1.5):

Ole Miss gets the right matchup at the right time. Tempo plus home crowd should tilt the early script, and the Rebels’ spacing game can stress LSU horizontally before the shots arrive. LSU has the higher ceiling, but sustaining long drives in Oxford is a tougher ask when the chains get behind schedule. Add in the uncertainty in LSU’s backfield with Caden Durham listed as doubtful because of an ankle injury, and it becomes that much harder.

Lowell’s Lock: Ole Miss covers -1.5

#21 USC (-6.5) at #23 Illinois:

USC has the cleaner path if they hold serve on early downs. Illinois can punch back at home, but the secondary came out of Bloomington in rough shape and still looks patched together, even with some names trending back. If the Trojans stay on schedule, the explosive edge tilts their way, and field position should follow. 

Injuries matter here. USC’s WR Ja’Kobi Lane has been in and out of practice this wee,k and his availability remains uncertain, while LT Elijah Paige is also a question. Even without Lane, USC has enough at receiver, and Illinois’ back end is still a concern.

Lowell’s Lock: USC covers -6.5

#6 Oregon at #3 Penn State (-3.5):

Oregon can live in space if they stay ahead of the chains, and that plays in any stadium, even a White Out. Getting Noah Whittington back matters for early-down rhythm, and there is a decent chance Justius Lowe suits up. Evan Stewart has been out long term, and Dakorien Moore’s week included some injury buzz, so the Ducks may lean on the ground game and shot plays off it. Penn State’s defense is legit, the crowd is a problem, and Drew Allar can make you pay if you hand him short fields. 

If Oregon handles the noise and flips field position a couple of times, this tilts green late. Penn State’s receiver room has taken a couple depth hits since camp, which could show up on third down in a tight game. I like Oregon to hang around, win the explosives battle, and make the last few possessions count.

Lowell’s Lock: Oregon covers +3.5

#17 Alabama at #5 Georgia (-2.5):

Georgia gets this in their building, and the script favors them if they win early downs. The pieces are there to stress Alabama vertically and on play-action with Gunner Stockton steering it and a top trio of Zachariah Branch, Dillon Bell, and Colbie Young. If the run game with Nate Frazier keeps the chains on schedule, field position should tilt their way in the second half. 

Alabama’s counter is explosives. Ty Simpson has the arm to push shots to Ryan Williams with Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton in support. If those connections hit early, the Tide can trade haymakers, but sustained drives are a tougher ask against this front.

Lowell’s Locks: Georgia covers -2.5

Kentucky at South Carolina (-5.5)

South Carolina gets this in their building, and the matchup tilts their way if they win early downs. Kentucky is handing the keys to Cutter Boley for his first SEC road start, and the Gamecocks can squeeze the field if they keep him behind the sticks. The Wildcats are also down top corner DJ Waller, which softens the perimeter if South Carolina hits play-action shots. 

South Carolina’s offensive line health is worth noting with Cason Henry and Nolan Hay on the doubtful/out side, but if LaNorris Sellers plays clean and special teams flips a short field or two (hello, Vicari Swain), the fourth quarter should lean garnet. 

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina covers -5.5