Lowell's Locks: Week Nine

Week Nine shows up with the season at 29–19 (60.4%) after a 4–2 week. Vandy, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma landed. Clemson and Utah did not. The reads that hit came down to early downs, field position, and finishing drives. Same plan here. Keep it selective, respect the numbers, and look for spots that let us separate after halftime.

#8 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma (-5.5):

Oklahoma’s defense has lived on disruption and tackling in space, which is the right recipe against Ole Miss. If the Sooners win first down and keep the Rebels in longer fields, the middle quarters tilt their way. Personnel matters on both sidelines. For OU, the midweek availability listed an offensive line starter downgraded to doubtful, with RB Jovantae Barnes and CB Gentry Williams questionable. That raises some volatility but not enough to flip the spread if Oklahoma finishes short fields and caps explosives. Ole Miss listed WR Deuce Alexander was on the availability report earlier in the week and his status is being monitored. I still trust OU’s defense and red-zone math at home.

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma covers -5.5

#18 South Florida (-6.5) at Memphis:

USF brings the steadier early-down profile and a defense that rallies to the ball. Memphis can trade when it gets tempo and short fields, but sustained drives are tougher if the quarterback room is patchwork. Memphis has dealt with QB availability after Brendon Lewis exited earlier this month, and the Tigers’ injuries page shows multiple outs in the two-deep. If USF plays clean and leans on the run game to stay on schedule, the fourth quarter should lean Bulls.

Lowell’s Lock: South Florida covers -6.5

#15 Missouri at #10 Vanderbilt (-2.5):

Vanderbilt’s surge at home is real, and the matchup fits. The Commodores can stress space, then layer shots after the run game sets leverage. Missouri’s offense has answers, but the road asks for longer fields against a confident group. On the availability front, Vandy lost captain DL Issa Ouattara for the season. Yet, this week’s report did not carry major new surprises, while Missouri’s lists have featured depth casualties more than top-end losses. I like Vandy’s ability to control the middle quarters and finish drives in Nashville.

Lowell’s Lock: Vanderbilt covers -2.5

#23 Illinois at Washington (-3.5):

Washington can shorten this game with balance. If the Huskies win first down and keep Illinois from cashing chunk plays, the cover sits inside normal game flow. Illinois’ secondary remains light with CB Xavier Scott listed out on multiple reports, and there are lingering depth hits in the skill room. Washington’s injury list has included tight end and back-seven pieces, but the top offensive structure remains intact. I trust UW’s third-down plan at home.

Lowell’s Lock: Washington covers -3.5

#3 Texas A&M (-2.5) at #20 LSU:

This is trench ball. A&M has the sturdier defensive front and the better first-down profile right now, which travels into Baton Rouge. LSU’s availability report is a headline this week: star LB Whit Weeks is out with an ankle issue, OL Tyree Adams is out, and DL Gabe Reliford is also on the shelf, while DE Jimari Butler is trending probable. That combination trims LSU’s margin on both edges. If the Aggies avoid turnovers and keep LSU off schedule, they can grind the middle quarters and close it out.

Lowell’s Lock: Texas A&M covers -2.5

#4 Alabama (-11.5) at South Carolina

Bryant-Denny travel tax is gone, but the Tide still carry the trench edge. If Alabama stays ahead of the sticks and limits giveaways, the defense can squeeze South Carolina into a chase script. Alabama added three names to the late-week report: WR Lotzeir Brooks, doubtful; RG Geno VanDeMark, questionable; and TE Danny Lewis Jr., out. South Carolina’s line room remains thin, with Cason Henry out for the season and other pieces working back. Even with Bama’s skill attrition, the depth and defensive front should carry the final two possessions.

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama covers -11.5