Lowell's Locks: Week Eleven

Back in rhythm with a 4–2 week! Wins on Ole Miss, Duke, Texas, and Ohio State, losses on Tennessee and Georgia. The reads that landed came down to early downs, field position, and finishing drives. Same plan here. Keep it selective, respect the numbers, and look for spots that let us separate after halftime.

Saturday, November 8th:

#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech (-10.5):

Texas Tech is at home with the clean early-down profile. The Red Raiders can stress space, stay on schedule, and force BYU to drive long fields. If Tech avoids the sudden-change giveaway and turns two middle-quarter possessions into points, the number lives all game. BYU’s path is explosives and short fields; cap those and the fourth quarter tilts scarlet and black.

Lowell’s Lock: Texas Tech covers -10.5

#3 Texas A&M (-6.5) at #22 Missouri:

This sets up as trench ball. A&M carries the sturdier front and the better early-down defense, which travels. Missouri can counter with tempo and perimeter shots, but if the Aggies win the line and keep the Tigers behind the sticks, it favors the road favorite. One short field and a red-zone stop should be enough to clear a one-score spread.

Lowell’s Lock: Texas A&M covers -6.5

#9 Oregon (-6.5) at #20 Iowa:

Styles make fights. Oregon wants pace and explosives, Iowa wants to squeeze possession and lean on field position. The Ducks have more ways to create chunk plays and a third-down plan that doesn’t require perfection. If Oregon stays ahead of the chains and limits special-teams leakage, they can pull this out of rock-fight mode after halftime.

Lowell’s Lock: Oregon covers -6.5

LSU at #4 Alabama (-10.5)

Bryant-Denny tilts the script if Alabama plays clean. The Tide’s edge is depth up front and a defense that can force LSU into long-yardage snaps. LSU can absolutely punch with explosives, so the key is limiting sudden-change drives and making the Tigers settle for threes. If Alabama wins first down and avoids giveaways, the fourth quarter belongs to the home side, and the cover stays live.

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama covers -10.5

Navy at #10 Notre Dame (-27.5)

Big number, but Notre Dame’s profile supports it if the Irish get two early stops. Short fields plus an efficient red-zone script can stretch this beyond the key numbers. Navy’s best path is clock bleed and fourth-down variance; if ND tackles on the perimeter and avoids penalties on money downs, the math pushes toward a four-score gap.

Lowell’s Lock: Notre Dame covers -27.5

Florida State at Clemson (-1.5):

Florida State’s offense has more ways to win the game. If the Noles stay ahead of the sticks and protect the ball, they can force Clemson to chase and play longer fields. Explosives and red-zone finish tilt toward FSU, and that is the cleaner path in a tight number, especially against a Clemson defense that has fallen well short of pre-season expectations.

Lowell’s Lock: Florida State +1.5