Clemson - Virginia Win Probabilities and NCAA Tournament Odds for Tigers
With a 90-82 win over Boston College Thursday, Clemson moves on to face top-ranked Virgina and we take a look at the Tigers' win probability for Friday's game and current odds for the Tigers to make it to the second weekend (and beyond) of the NCAA Tournament.
Win Probabilities for ACC Tournament Game
ESPN has assigned the following win probabilities to Clemson's second game in the ACC Tournament against Virginia:
| Opponent | Location | Win Probability |
| Virginia | Barclays Center - Brooklyn, NY | 16.9 |
Over on warrennolan.com there are two different predictive methods and both are heavily skewed towards the Cavaliers:
| Type | Winner | Probability | Score |
| Resid | Virginia | 73% | 60-53 |
| ELO | Virginia | 100% | 63-48 |
Tournament Odds
The Tigers are a lock for the Big Dance as Joe Lunardi has Clemson as a 5 seed facing Loyolya-Chicgao in the latest edition of bracketology.
So what are the odds once they get there? Per ESPN (based on Lunardi's bracketology) here are Clemson's odds:
| Make Sweet 16 | Make Final Four | Win Tournament |
| 30.9% | 5.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 in 3.2 | 1 in 17.5 | 1 in 142.9 |
For a team pegged for 13th in their conference preseason to have almost a 1 in 3 chance of making the Sweet 16 is an astounding accomplishment, even more so playing without their top player over the latter half of the season.
The odds of getting beyond the Sweet 16 are long, but the NCAA Tournament is about guard play and we've seen several teams make unexpected runs in March over the last few years.