Keys to Victory: Clemson vs. North Carolina

The Match-Up:

Clemson (1-1, 0-0 ACC) vs. North Carolina (2-0, 0-0 ACC)

• Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 19, Noon ET
• TV: ESPN (Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, Stormy Buonantony)
• Radio: Clemson Athletic Network (Don Munson, Tim Bourret, Jeff Scott)
• Satellite Radio: SiriusXM 82
• Venue: Memorial Stadium | Clemson, S.C.

The Stakes:

Two games into the season, Clemson is still trying to figure out exactly what it has offensively.

The Tigers bounced back from the 51-10 loss at LSU with a 22-7 win over Georgia Southern, but the scoreboard didn’t exactly erase the concerns. Clemson has scored just two offensive touchdowns through two games, and now Dabo Swinney and Chad Morris are turning the offense over to true freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds.

That makes Saturday more than Clemson’s ACC opener.

It’s a measuring-stick game for an offense searching for an identity, a freshman quarterback being handed the keys and a Clemson team that doesn’t want to enter next week’s late-night trip to California sitting at 1-2.

North Carolina comes in 2-0 under Bill Belichick, and the Tar Heels have an experienced quarterback in Billy Edwards Jr. On the other side, Clemson is handing the football to a 19-year-old making his first career start.

It’s a tale of two quarterbacks, and I think how those two play will go a long way toward deciding this one.

Series History:

Clemson leads the all-time series against North Carolina, 41-19-1, including a 20-7 advantage in games played at Clemson.

The Tigers have won seven straight in the series dating back to 2011. A victory Saturday would give Clemson its longest winning streak against North Carolina in series history, breaking the previous seven-game run from 1986-92.

Clemson won last year’s meeting 38-10 in Chapel Hill.

One of the most memorable games in the series came in 1981, when Clemson and North Carolina met as AP Top-10 teams in conference play for the first time in ACC history. Clemson escaped with a 10-8 victory on its way to the national championship.

Tim Bourret’s Perspective:

There’s no getting around the headline this week: Tait Reynolds is starting at quarterback.

And as Tim Bourret pointed out on Clemson Sports Talk, what Reynolds is attempting to do is historically unusual.

“Tait Reynolds is going to be the first true freshman to start at quarterback within the first three games of the season since then (1975), and is actually the first true freshman quarterback to start a game in Death Valley in just his third game. Cause the two previous I just mentioned were both, both road games. So it's, it's, it's really throwing Reynolds into the fire early, especially when you considered he did not really didn't play last year in high school.”

As for how much room Reynolds will have to work through mistakes Saturday, Bourret doesn’t expect Clemson to have a quick hook.

“I think Reynolds goes the full first half and we'll see where he is. I just think he's got a pretty long leash to be honest with you. I think that Reynolds just kind of seems like he suits what Chad Morris likes to do.”

That may be the biggest storyline of the afternoon. This doesn’t feel like the scripted quarterback rotation Clemson used against Georgia Southern. Reynolds has the opportunity to take control of the job.

The Number That Matters:

THREE: As mentioned above, that’s how many games into his Clemson career Tait Reynolds will make his first start.

Reynolds will become the earliest Clemson true freshman quarterback to start in a season since Steve Fuller started Game 2 and Willie Jordan started Game 3 in 1975.

Reynolds will also become only the ninth true freshman to start at quarterback for Clemson since the Tigers abandoned the single wing in 1953.

Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence and DJ Uiagalelei are the only Clemson true freshmen since 1972 to win their first career starts.

Reynolds gets his shot Saturday.

Fun Fact:

Saturday is exactly 84 years since the first game ever played at Memorial Stadium.

On Sept. 19, 1942, Clemson christened its new stadium with a 32-13 victory over Presbyterian in front of an announced crowd of 5,500.

There’s also a pretty remarkable quarterback connection.

Butch Butler, a freshman making his first start at tailback, essentially the quarterback position in Clemson’s single-wing offense, rushed for 192 yards in that first game.

Now, exactly 84 years later, another Clemson freshman will make his first start at the position in Death Valley.

A Clemson victory would also be the 350th all-time win at Memorial Stadium.

Swanny's Rant & Reality Check:

“I don't have like this great reason to select Clemson to win outside of my belief that North Carolina's car wash of talent where they've run so many players in and out of that program over two years under Bill Belichick. Clemson's sustained steady roster is from top to bottom a little bit more cohesive even though we've seen them get blistered on the road at LSU and then look out of sync at home in their opener against Georgia Southern.”

“I think Reynolds does give something to Clemson athletically that they don't get from Christopher Vizina, although I do think people downplay Vizina's athleticism because they want the starting quarterback to be Tait Reynolds.”

That’s really where I am with this game.

I haven’t seen enough offensively from Clemson through two weeks to sit here and tell you that suddenly everything is fixed. It isn’t.

But this is also why you practice. It’s why you play the games. Teams can get better.

And if Reynolds can give this offense a spark, Clemson might start looking a whole lot different than it did over the first two weeks.

Three Things That Decide It:

1. How Does Tait Reynolds Handle the Moment?

This is the story.

Reynolds threw for 178 yards against Georgia Southern and added 38 yards on the ground, giving him 216 yards of total offense. Now he gets the first start of his Clemson career.

I’m watching the first two or three possessions closely.

Does Clemson move the football? Does Reynolds make the right reads in the run game? Does he protect the football? Most importantly, does the offense look confident with him behind center?

Reynolds has some natural athleticism, and there’s a confidence about him that’s easy to see. But looking the part and doing it for four quarters in an ACC game are different things.

If Clemson marches down the field and scores on its opening possession, Death Valley is going to come alive and Reynolds’ confidence could take off with it.

2. Can Clemson Finally Establish the Running Game?

Clemson improved from 40 rushing yards at LSU to 150 against Georgia Southern, but this offense still hasn’t found the consistency it needs up front.

The Tigers have also surrendered 22 tackles for loss through two games.

Some of that, as Bourret noted, has been a product of the aggressive defensive styles Clemson has faced. But eventually Clemson has to stop explaining the negative plays and start eliminating them.

Reynolds’ legs add another dimension to the equation.

If he makes the correct decisions in the option game and forces North Carolina to account for him as a runner, Clemson may finally create some of the space this offense has been missing.

3. Can the Defense Make Life Difficult for Billy Edwards Jr.?

The Clemson defense needed a response after LSU rushed for 309 yards and piled up 644 yards of offense in Baton Rouge.

It got one.

Georgia Southern finished with only 22 rushing yards and 266 yards of total offense. Clemson also recorded three sacks, with Will Heldt accounting for two of them.

Now the degree of difficulty increases.

Edwards Jr. gives North Carolina an experienced quarterback on the other side of a game featuring a first-time starter for Clemson.

The Tigers don’t need Reynolds to win a quarterback shootout if Tom Allen’s defense can control the game. Ashton Hampton, Elliott Washington II and the rest of Clemson’s defense have an opportunity to take some pressure off their freshman quarterback.

I’m also interested to see what Vic Burley adds to the equation. His return, coupled with his lackluster career, might spark a big night for a guy who is running out of time in Tiger Town to leave an imprint. Let’s see if his name can pop up throughout the game.

What Worries Me:

Clemson hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt offensively yet.

That’s it.

Two games. Two offensive touchdowns. A quarterback change. Twenty-two tackles for loss allowed.

Against Georgia Southern, Nolan Hauser kicked five field goals and accounted for 16 of Clemson’s 22 points. That’s great for Hauser. It’s not a formula Clemson wants to depend on every Saturday.

North Carolina is 2-0, and Clemson cannot assume that simply changing quarterbacks fixes everything that has been wrong offensively.

And there’s another side to starting Reynolds.

If it’s the struggle bus for three or four possessions and Clemson is down 10 points, what do you do?

Pulling a true freshman in his first start could affect his confidence. Leaving him in while the game slips away carries its own risk.

Clemson has made the decision.

Now Reynolds has to make it work.

Prediction:

I don’t see much reason to expect an offensive explosion from either team.

What I do believe is that Clemson’s roster has more continuity than a North Carolina program that has undergone massive personnel turnover under Belichick. I also think Clemson’s defense showed enough improvement last week to believe the Tigers can keep this game under control.

And ultimately, I’m leaning ever so slightly toward Reynolds giving Clemson enough.

I think it’s ugly.

I think it’s uncomfortable.

And I think Clemson finds a way.

The Pick: Clemson 27, North Carolina 24

Season Record: 2-0

Swanny's Predictions: