Lowell's Locks: Week Five

There we go.

After three straight weeks of hovering around .500, the Locks finally broke through in Week 4. Tennessee covered in a three-point loss to Texas, Georgia buried Oklahoma, Iowa went into the Big House and won outright, Alabama handled South Carolina, and Clemson went west and beat Cal by two touchdowns. The lone miss was Ole Miss, which walked into Gainesville and got absolutely obliterated by Florida.

So, 5-1. That’ll play.

The Locks are now 13-11 against the spread on the year. Let’s do it again.

Saturday, October 3rd:

No. 7 Alabama (-6) at No. 16 Mississippi State:

Alabama looks terrifying again. Keelon Russell has settled in, the offense has scored at least 45 points in every game, and the Crimson Tide defense can generate pressure without having to manufacture it on every snap.

Normally, that would be enough to scare me away from an underdog. Kamario Taylor is why it isn’t.

Taylor is exactly the kind of quarterback who can make an aggressive defense pay. Pressure gets home against most quarterbacks and the play is over. With Taylor, pressure can turn into 25 yards in the opposite direction. That matters because the one thing that has bothered me about Alabama defensively is its willingness to give up the occasional explosive play, and that is where Taylor lives.

Mississippi State also got some good news on the injury front with running back Fluff Bothwell and safety Isaac Smith expected to be available. Alabama won’t be completely healthy, either. Starting right tackle Jayvin James has been ruled out, and the Crimson Tide will also be without several defensive contributors. Mississippi State has losses of its own, particularly in the front seven, so I’m not pretending this is some perfect matchup for the Bulldogs.

Alabama may very well win. I just think six points is too many in Starkville against an undefeated team with a quarterback whose best trait is turning the exact thing Alabama does well into chaos.

Lowell’s Lock: Mississippi State +6

No. 8 Florida (-5.5) at No. 25 Missouri:

I liked Florida pretty much immediately.

There’s an obvious argument against it. The Gators just played their best game of the season, dismantling then-No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28. Now they have to come back down from that, go on the road and play a ranked Missouri team on Homecoming. This is exactly where somebody is supposed to say “letdown spot.”

I don’t really buy it.

Florida has found an identity that travels: run the dang ball. Jadan Baugh has been excellent, the Gators just ran for more than 300 yards against Ole Miss, and they don’t need Aaron Philo to turn into Dan Marino for this offense to work.

That becomes even more appealing when you look at Missouri’s injury report. The Tigers will be without edge rushers Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen. Running backs Ahmad Hardy and Malae Fonoti are also out, along with starting-caliber offensive lineman Josh Atkins. Florida has an important question of its own with leading receiver Vernell Brown III listed as doubtful, while Bailey Stockton is probable, but that almost makes the formula even simpler.

Hand it to Baugh. Hand it to Duke Clark. Make Missouri tackle them for four quarters.

Florida has looked physical, functional and increasingly confident. Missouri, meanwhile, is missing two of the guys it would most like to have available to stop that style of offense. Less than a touchdown feels like a good time to bite.

Lowell’s Lock: Florida -5.5

No. 5 Ohio State (-14.5) at No. 14 Iowa:

Fourteen and a half points on the road at Kinnick against the No. 14 team in the country is a ridiculous number.

And I’m laying it.

Iowa is 4-0. The Hawkeyes just walked into the Big House and beat Michigan. Their defense has been one of the best in the country, and Kinnick with College GameDay in town is going to be an absolute nightmare. I fully expect this game to be annoying.

I just keep coming back to the same question: How in the hell is Iowa going to score enough?

Hank Brown has been good. He has taken care of the football and given Iowa a level of competency at quarterback that the Hawkeyes have not exactly been spoiled with in recent years. But now you’re asking that offense to keep pace with Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith.

The thing is, Ohio State doesn’t necessarily have to light Iowa up. Maybe it’s 10-6 at halftime. Maybe Iowa hangs around and everybody holding an Ohio State ticket starts regretting every decision that led them here. But eventually Ohio State gets to 20, then 27, and at some point Iowa has to score.

The Buckeyes will be without starting right tackle Phillip Daniels, and running back Anthony Rogers and linebacker Braxton Rembert are also out. Starting nickel Jay Timmons remains questionable. Iowa will be without defensive back Tyler Brown. That makes me slightly less comfortable, but not enough to get me off it.

If Ohio State gets into the high 20s, I think Iowa is in trouble. If the Buckeyes get to 31, I really don’t know where the Hawkeyes find enough offense to stay inside the number.

Lowell’s Lock: Ohio State -14.5

Auburn at No. 14 Tennessee (-7):

This is probably the pick on the card that makes me the most uncomfortable.

Tennessee is beat up. The Vols will be without guard Wendell Moe, tight end Ethan Davis, linebacker Jaedon Harmon and multiple defensive backs. Running back Javin Gordon is doubtful, while offensive lineman Shamurad Umarov and defensive back Qua Moss are questionable. Auburn, meanwhile, comes in considerably healthier.

That is not ideal when I’m trying to lay a touchdown.

But when I broke this game down, I eventually stopped looking at Tennessee’s offense and flipped the matchup. I like it much more when I think about Auburn’s offense against Tennessee’s defense.

Byrum Brown is dangerous. Alex Golesh can create conflict with tempo, quarterback run game and all the window dressing that comes with it. I just don’t trust Auburn enough yet. The Tigers haven’t consistently shown me an offense capable of walking into Neyland and stringing together scoring drives for four quarters.

Tennessee’s offense doesn’t need to be spectacular, and that’s especially important for Faizon Brandon after what happened against Texas. He spent much of last week getting assaulted behind an offensive line that gave up 10 sacks. This needs to look very different: protect the freshman, run the football, use tempo when the defense gives you the look you want, and let the defense make Auburn prove it can consistently move the ball.

I don’t think it can.

The injuries are the reason I don’t love this pick. The matchup is why I’m still taking it.

Lowell’s Lock: Tennessee -7

No. 24 Kentucky at South Carolina (-2.5):

At some point, I have to stop betting on what South Carolina is supposed to be.

The Gamecocks are 0-2 in SEC play and just got hammered 49-18 by Alabama. Now they come home with one of the supposed strengths of the roster, the defensive front, compromised. Dylan Stewart is suspended and will not play, while Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy remains questionable. South Carolina will also be without offensive lineman Josiah Thompson, linebacker AJ Holloway and several other contributors.

Kentucky is far from healthy itself. Alex Afari Jr. and Tavion Wallace are both out at linebacker, while wide receiver DJ Miller, corner Grant Grayton and two offensive linemen are also unavailable. There are reasons to be nervous on both sides.

But Kentucky has been the more reliable football team through four weeks. The Wildcats can lean on multiple running backs, they don’t need to put the entire game on their quarterback, and they can come into Williams-Brice, stay on schedule and make South Carolina prove it can play clean football for four quarters.

That’s really where I land. South Carolina being favored feels like I’m being asked to bet on the talent eventually showing up because the game is at home. I’ve done enough of that.

I’m betting on what I’ve actually seen. Give me the team playing better football, and give me the points.

Lowell’s Lock: Kentucky +2.5

No. 4 Miami (-16.5) at Clemson:

No, I have not lost my mind.

Miami is better than Clemson. I think Miami wins this football game. I also think 16.5 points is too many.

There are plenty of reasons this could go horribly wrong. Miami’s defense has been absolutely vicious against the run, and Clemson has increasingly built its offense around Gideon Davidson and freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds. That is not exactly the opponent I would choose if my offensive plan begins with “please don’t make the freshman throw it 40 times.”

Clemson probably needs Reynolds to make enough throws to keep Miami from completely suffocating Davidson, and that brings us to the weather.

There’s a tendency to see rain in the forecast and automatically decide it helps the underdog. I don’t think it’s that simple. Rain might actually hurt Clemson’s passing game more than Miami’s. Darian Mensah has completed almost everything this season, and Miami can live on rhythm throws, RPOs, crossers and yards after the catch. It does not need to spend all night chucking 50-yard bombs through a monsoon. Clemson, meanwhile, needs Reynolds to make enough intermediate throws to keep the offense functional.

So no, I don’t think the rain magically gives Clemson an offensive advantage. What it does is create variance.

A wet ball creates drops, fumbles, bad footing and the occasional drive-killing mistake. It gives you a better chance of turning a football game between two teams of very different quality into something ugly.

And ugly is exactly what Clemson needs.

Because I trust this defense.

The unit that got run over by LSU in Week 1 has looked increasingly different over the last three games. Cal came into last week with a dangerous passing attack and finished with 145 yards through the air. Ashton Hampton has played well. Elliot Washington II has played well. Jerome Carter III and Corey Myrick have helped stabilize the back end.

Tom Allen also has enough flexibility with the three-safety package to do something I think is absolutely necessary Saturday night: load up against the run, know where Malachi Toney is and trust the secondary.

I don’t mean literally double-team Toney on every snap. Miami moves him all over the formation, and you can’t chase him everywhere without breaking the rest of your defense. But Clemson can lean the coverage toward him, bracket him when the call allows it and make Mensah throw somewhere else. If that means trusting Hampton or Washington one-on-one on the opposite side, so be it.

The nightmare is obvious. Mark Fletcher comes back, Miami starts getting six and seven yards on first down, Clemson has to spin another safety toward the box, and suddenly Toney is running through open grass. Fletcher is expected back after Miami held him out against Central Michigan as a precaution.

If Miami runs the football like that, Clemson is cooked.

But if Clemson can hold those runs closer to three or four yards, now we’re talking. Now Mensah has to convert 3rd-and-6. Now the crowd matters. Now the late safety rotation matters. Now one false start matters. Now one wet-ball fumble matters.

Make Miami snap it again and again and again.

Miami’s secondary is also beat up. Xavier Lucas has been ruled out, joining Ja’Boree Antoine and OJ Frederique Jr. Clemson, meanwhile, got better news Friday with starting guard Elyjah Thurmon upgraded to probable.

I don’t need Reynolds to throw for 300 yards. Honestly, I don’t particularly want him trying.

I need Clemson to find somewhere around 17 points through a combination of Davidson, field position, maybe special teams and a couple of competent scoring drives. That is enough if the defense can prevent Miami from turning this into a track meet.

I keep seeing roughly the same game in my head. Miami is clearly better, Clemson makes them work for everything, and the rain makes the whole thing a little uglier than Miami would prefer.

When it’s over, the Hurricanes leave Death Valley undefeated.

Miami 31, Clemson 17

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson +16.5

Good teams win. Great teams cover.

Week 5 Card: Mississippi State +6, Florida -5.5, Ohio State -14.5, Tennessee -7, Kentucky +2.5, Clemson +16.5.