Inside the San Diego Regional
Join the only website that combines full coverage of the Clemson Tigers with a two hour radio show that airs Monday through Friday covering your Tigers.
#5 Clemson:
Best wins: Clemson boasts a road wins over Ohio State who is the No. 5 seed in the West Region. The Tigers also knocked off the West's No. 2 seed North Carolina and the South's No. 6 seed Miami in Littlejohn Coliseum.
Worst losses: Clemson's worst loss of the season was probably dropping a neutral site game to Temple in the Gildan Charleston Classic early in the season. Temple (17-15, 8-10) finished 7th in the American Athletic Conference.
The Tigers didn't have a real letdown loss this year outside of blowing an 18 point lead in a very winnable game in Tallahassee.
Take a look at some of the tournament teams that have topped the Tigers.
Three of Clemson's losses came to top-seeded, and No. 1 ranked Virginia, the Midwest's No. 2 seed Duke, the West's No. 2 seed North Carolina.
Clemson also fell to the Midwest's No. 9 seed NC State, the West's No. 9 seed Florida State, and the East's No. 8 seed Virginia Tech.
We mention all of that just to note the tough competition the Tigers have played this year.
What they are saying:
- "This will be a low-scoring game, especially if the Tigers play at their usual plodding pace on offense. " -SBNation
- "Amazingly, four of the five like No. 12 New Mexico State not only to beat No. 5 Clemson but also No. 4 Auburn and make the Final 16." - New York Times
Why they can advance: Clemson has veteran guards in Shelton Mitchell, Gabe DeVoe, and Marcquise Reed. Let's be honest; in the NCAA Tournament, there isn't a more valuable asset. When the Tigers get going offensively, it's typically because one of the guards is having a really good day. Even if you slow down one of the three, the Tigers are still going to be a tough out.
How far can they go: The bracket seems to set up well for Clemson, especially if they can get past New Mexico State in the opening round. Looking ahead, Auburn nor College of Charleston seem to present a significant threat in the Second Round. In fact, I've been in the "Auburn is overrated" camp for a few months.
I think the ceiling for this team is the Sweet Sixteen, but with the right breaks above them (i.e., Kansas loses), perhaps the Tigers get a good matchup and sneak into the Elite Eight for the first time since 1980.
#12 New Mexico State:
Best wins: The Aggies beat Davidson and Miami on back to back days in the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu back in December.
The Hurricanes stand as the lone common opponent that both the Aggies and the Tigers faced this year and both teams won by nine points. New Mexico State defeated Miami 63-54, while Clemson earned a 72-63 win in mid-January.
Worst losses: Back in December, a 65-60 home loss to San Diego is the worst of 5 losses on the Aggies resume. There is little to no shame in their 28-5 record.
In our estimation, this is a very good New Mexico State team and had they played stiffer competition would be much more highly regarded.
What they are saying:
"Somewhere in the NCAA bylaws is a rule that says at least one No. 5 seed has to lose to a No. 12 seed every March. This could be the one. New Mexico State has won 17 of 19, and already has taken a chunk out of the ACC, beating Miami." - CNN
"First-year coach Chris Jans has the Aggies riding a six-game winning streak and rounding into shape as one of the best all-around defensive teams in the field." - CBS Sports
Why they can advance: Clearly Clemson's basketball track record in the postseason isn't conducive to believe that the Tigers are above faltering to a lower seed. The fact that New Mexico state plays a suffocating defensive style is more than enough reason for concern.
If the Aggies can limit Clemson's guards in round one, they would have a great shot a beating Auburn or Charleston.
In my estimation, the winner of the Clemson - New Mexico State game will move on to the Sweet Sixteen.
How far can they go:
The Aggies finished 28-5 overall this season, including 12-2 in the Western Athletic Conference and a 5th straight conference title. Zach Lofton leads the Aggies in scoring with 19.8 points per game. He is joined by Jemerrio Jones who averages a double-double with 11.1 points per game along with 13.1 rebounds.
I think the limit for this team is the Sweet Sixteen. Kansas is just too much for anyone in the bottom half of the Midwest Region. Even if the Jayhawks get bounced, I don't think I'd buy New Mexico State advancing.
#4 Auburn:
Best wins: The Tigers from the Plains have multiple good wins: Tennessee, Alabama (1-2) and Arkansas (1-1).
Worst losses: If Temple is a bad loss for Clemson, then it has to be for Auburn, too. Auburn also lost to South Carolina.
What they are saying:
"The overriding factor impacting Auburn's scoring, shooting and defense is a declining assist-turnover ratio on offense. Opponents have been pressuring Jared Harper and Bryce Brown a lot over the last four weeks, and it's led to Auburn assist-turnover radio (1.18) to drop to 98th nationally." - AL.com
"Auburn has struggled this season against bigger, athletic teams. Only one of the College of Charleston’s starters is taller than 6-foot-7. That’s 6-foot-10 Nick Harris, who averages 6 points per game." - SEC Country
Why they can advance:
Auburn has to get back to its identity of taking care of the basketball and playing stellar defense. It was an identity that got them to the point where they were a top-10 team and playing lights out in the SEC.
It'll start with scoring in double figures. Auburn is 22-4 when at least four players score in double figures this season and 3-3 when they don't reach that number. Harper, like Reed from Clemson, is the guy who gets them going offensively. There's more pressure on Auburn's guards now that Anfernee McLemore, a tremendous size inside, won't be able to go. Limiting turnovers and getting back to the basics can surprisingly get you far.
The Tigers have lost four of their last six, but the eight scholarship players who will take the court in San Diego are more than motivated to turn things around.
How far can they go:
The goal for Bruce Pearl when he got to Auburn was to get its basketball program back to the NCAA Tournament. A step further would be to advance them to the Sweet Sixteen. Auburn hasn't been to the Tournament since 2003 where they fell to Syracuse by one point.
Charles Barkley said this is the best season in school history for Auburn, a team who has yet to play in its first tournament game in 15 years. The Tigers have only lost in the first round once, back in 1984 to Richmond by one point.
This team may be riding on fumes and coming into the Big Dance not feeling good about themselves, but a Sweet Sixteen is definitely possible with how the San Diego Regional could play out.
If Auburn were to get that far, the road would end there, but a Sweet Sixteen appearance would be just what this program needs going forward.
#13 College of Charleston:
Best wins: The Cougars have beaten Northeastern (55 in RPI) 3 times.
Worst losses: Cal Poly (9-22, 305th in RPI), Drexel (242), Towson (154)
What they are saying:
"College of Charleston moves incredibly slowly on offense, and we should expect the Cougars to keep the score low by holding down possessions." - SBNation
"The Cougars rank No. 1 nationally in minutes continuity — that is, the percentage of minutes played this season by the players who took the floor last season." - SEC Country
Why they can advance:
Auburn has lost four of its final six games after losing Anfernee McLemore to a season-ending injury. Auburn is undersized, and that's a perfect setup for the Cougars at just the right time.
By the way, they do have one common opponent this season, Hofstra. Auburn defeated the Pride 89-79 on November 19th, and College of Charleston topped them 76-70 on January 20th.
How far can they go:
Much like Auburn, this feels like a one and done team given the competition ahead. If Earl Grant's squad can handle the Tigers from the Plains than a date with his old boss, Brad Brownell could be in the cards.
Tale of the Tape:
| Team | Adj O | Adj D | RPI | SOS |
| Clemson | 48 | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| Auburn | 16 | 44 | 15 | 47 |
| New Mexico State | 116 | 14 | 35 | 166 |
| Charleston | 87 | 167 | 57 | 199 |
*Adj O (adjusted offense) and Adj D (adjusted defense) rankings from kenpom.com. RPI and SOS metrics from warrennolan.com.
How it plays out:
Auburn has struggled recently but should be able to hold off College of Charleston. Give Earl Grant a ton of credit for the job he has done in the Holy City. I tend to think of the two games, this is most likely to produce an upset, but I think Auburn wins it by 7-15 points.
As for your Tigers, I think Clemson is going to be well prepared for the challenge that they will face against New Mexico State. This is a seasoned Clemson team, and I don't think that they are ripe for a letdown just yet. I think Clemson wins the opening game by 8+ points.