Lowell's Locks: Week Nine

There are bad weeks, and then there are weeks where the board kicks your teeth in and leaves the lights flickering on the way out.

Week Eight went 1-5, dropping the season record to 22-26 ATS. No excuses. A couple reads were wrong, a couple games went sideways, and by Saturday night the damage was done.

Good thing it’s Halloween weekend.

If there is ever a time to trust a few ugly dogs, questionable favorites and one Clemson offense that may actually be haunted, this is probably it.

So, here we go again.

This week’s card has a little bit of everything. Two road dogs I think can make their games miserable, two favorites whose defenses should eventually take over, one double-digit dog I do not particularly trust, and Clemson. Because apparently I have not suffered enough.

Lines are as of Friday evening and may move before kickoff.

Saturday, October 31st

Auburn (+13.5) at No. 12 Ole Miss:

Ole Miss keeps finding ways to burn me, which is exactly why I am hesitant to lay nearly two touchdowns with them.

The Rebels are the better team. Their offense is more consistent, they are at home and Auburn has spent plenty of this season reminding everyone why trusting Auburn is generally a bad life choice.

But Auburn has a path here.

Ole Miss has struggled against the run, and Byrum Brown gives Auburn an extra number in the box that has to be accounted for. If the Tigers can stay committed to the ground game, shorten possessions and avoid giving Ole Miss cheap points, this does not need to be especially pretty.

Ole Miss can win 34-24 and never really feel threatened.

Lowell’s Lock: Auburn +13.5

No. 20 Northwestern (+3.5) at Oregon:

Northwestern is averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game, and that is where I am starting.

Oregon’s run defense has been solid down to down, but it has given up explosive runs, and Chip Kelly has built an offense that is very good at creating them. He does not need Northwestern to mash Oregon for six yards every snap. He can live with 3, 4, 5, 2, then use motion to make one defender wrong and suddenly somebody is gone.

Meanwhile, Oregon is 4-3, Dante Moore is done for the season, the offense has changed play-callers and the Ducks are still trying to settle the quarterback situation.

Northwestern also converts nearly half its third downs, has been excellent in the red zone and owns a huge turnover-margin advantage.

At some point we have to stop pricing Oregon like the team we expected to see in August.

Lowell’s Lock: Northwestern +3.5

No. 17 Florida at No. 3 Georgia (-11.5):

Normally, 11.5 points in a rivalry game would scare me off.

Not here.

Florida can score. The bigger question is whether the Gators can stay on schedule against a Georgia defense that can stop the run without selling out and force quarterbacks into obvious passing situations. We already saw what this defense can do to an offense once it starts winning first down.

Georgia is averaging more than 40 points per game, nearly eight yards per play and converting more than half its third downs. Florida’s defense has not shown me enough to believe it can survive that for four quarters.

This does not have to be a wire-to-wire beating. It can be 17-10 at halftime and 31-13 midway through the fourth.

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia -11.5

South Carolina (+4.5) at Oklahoma:

I hate this pick. That does not mean I think it is wrong.

Oklahoma’s defense is exactly the kind of unit that can make LaNorris Sellers look uncomfortable. The Sooners are excellent on third down, strong against the pass and very good at creating long-yardage situations. South Carolina is also dealing with injuries along the offensive line.

If Sellers is living in 3rd-and-8 all afternoon, this could get ugly.

The problem is Oklahoma still has to score.

The Sooners have struggled to run the ball, struggled on third down and struggled to finish drives against Power Four competition. I can easily picture the defense forcing three consecutive punts and the OU offense answering with a field goal, a punt and a turnover.

This feels like the kind of game where nobody enjoys themselves and the final score is 21-20.

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina +4.5

No. 2 Ohio State (-6.5) at USC:

Luke Fahey is making his first start on the road.

Fine.

I do not need him to be Julian Sayin.

Ohio State’s defense is good enough to keep this from turning into a quarterback referendum. USC has been inconsistent offensively and now gets one of the best defenses in the country. If the Buckeyes keep getting stops, Fahey gets to play a much easier game.

Run the offense. Get the ball to Jeremiah Smith. Do not hand USC short fields.

The Trojan defense has not shown me enough to believe it can keep Ohio State bottled up for four quarters.

Lowell’s Lock: Ohio State -6.5

Clemson (+6) at Florida State:

Two passing touchdowns.

It is almost November, and Clemson has two passing touchdowns all season. There is no clever way to explain that away.

Florida State has the better offense by a wide margin. The Seminoles average more than 30 points and more than 400 yards per game. Clemson sits around 21 points and 333 yards. And yet I am taking Clemson.

Florida State cannot stop anybody.

The Seminoles are allowing roughly 435 yards and 28 points per game and have given up more than 500 yards in each of their last two. Clemson’s offense has been dreadful, but for once it is not being asked to solve a defense that can strangle it.

Tait Reynolds does not need to suddenly turn into Trevor Lawrence. He needs to use his legs, avoid obvious passing situations and keep Clemson from wasting entire quarters offensively.

Clemson is allowing roughly 317 yards and 21 points per game, and that unit is the reason I think six is too many. Florida State will hit some explosive plays. Clemson will probably waste at least two possessions that make me want to throw something at the television. Both things can be true.

Score Prediction: FSU 24, Clemson 20.

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson +6
 

Good teams win. Great teams cover.

Week 9 Card: Auburn +13.5, Northwestern +3.5, Georgia -11.5, South Carolina +4.5, Ohio State -6.5, Clemson +6