Last Look: ACC Championship - Miami
No. 1 Clemson is going for its third consecutive ACC title against the No. 7 Miami Hurricanes in the game of the weekend. This acts as a quarterfinal playoff type of scenario where the winner is a shoe-in to make the top four on Sunday.
This should be fun.
Here are a few last-minute keys to look for during tonight’s matchup:
Malik Rosier --
Miami’s junior quarterback has been the catalyst for the Hurricane’s offense. Head coach Mark Richt said Friday afternoon that he didn’t even know if Rosier would be “the guy” back in spring practice.
This sounds a lot like what Dabo Swinney would say about his quarterback Kelly Bryant. Both play with a similar style where their running can open up the passing game.
Rosier is coming off of an interesting performance where his offense struggled against 5-7 Pittsburgh. He threw 15 completions on 34 attempts, which is probably his second-worst throwing performance of the season (He went 19-of-44 at Florida State in a win).
Rosier was benched for a series in the fourth quarter against Pittsburgh when the game was still relatively in the balance. Richt said he just wanted to try something different because Rosier struggled.
For this game, it will be interesting to see how Rosier responds during the game after he was benched for a bit last week. Richt said he’s had excellent body language this week and was eager to get back in and lead his team after just one series. There is no controversy, but even that could mess with the head of a kid.
Against Clemson’s defense, he’s going to have to make some plays to lead his team to a win, and his legs will have to be a factor. If Rosier can rebound the way his coach expects him to, the Hurricanes will be in good shape. If not, it may be a long night.
Mentality ---
Remember Clemson’s loss to Pittsburgh in 2016?
That loss seemed to wake up the Tigers and show them that they could be beaten on any given night, even in Death Valley.
The same thing happened this season at Syracuse where Clemson got “exposed” and it was right back in the same situation as last year’s team.
The Tigers responded well and are now number one in the country to show for it.
Now, we get to see what Miami’s mentality will be after the loss. Will they have woken up and come out firing or will they let one loss turn into two? Miami has played up or down to its competition at times this season, which Clemson fans can probably attest to, so we don’t believe the Hurricanes will come out sluggish.
But it is something to keep an eye on. Look at the body language and leadership on the Miami sideline as the game gets going early.
Third-down conversions –-
A small statistic here, but a telling one. Clemson is 10th in the country in third-down offense converting 46.4 percent of its third downs. Last year’s national championship team converted just over 50 percent in 15 games.
Where does Miami fall on this list? The Hurricanes are 121st out of 129 teams in the third-down conversion category. They have 137 attempts and only 42 conversions, 30 percent. They are behind powerhouse offenses like Florida, Rutgers, Illinois, and Tennessee.
If Clemson can win the field-position battle and make Miami drive the length of the field, it’ll be hard for the Hurricanes to sustain drives given their prior inconsistencies in that area this season.
A long field could mean a long night for Miami.
Turnovers --
Ah, yes. Of course, we had to mention the turnover chain.
The Hurricanes lead the nation in turnover margin and have forced a staggering 29 turnovers this season.
Part of the reason that Miami has been so dominant this year is not only the number of turnovers that they force but also where they get the ball on offense after those turnovers.
The short field has helped this offense substantially by not making them sustain those long drives we mentioned earlier. A short field for this offense gives them the confidence to make the big play and makes life that much easier.
The turnover chain also gives the team and the fan base energy that can’t be explained, only felt. A Virginia Tech defensive player told us that the turnover chain "hypes up" Miami's entire defense and gives flames to the offensive side of the ball where they seem weaker.
The chain has taken a life of its own, and we have already seen around 12 replicas of the chain around the necks of fans in the Charlotte streets.
Swinney was tired of hearing about the chain and wanted to point out a key stat of his own Friday afternoon.
"The name of the game is points. They've had an unbelievable year, we've scored 79 points off turnovers, they've scored 72 points off turnovers. Both teams have had great years. We've scored a non-offensive touchdown in five road games. That's what we focus on every single week.
“This game isn't going to come down to a chain. It's going to come down to players making plays."
The Tigers have already done a more impressive job this year taking care of the football than last year’s team, and it starts with the decision making of Kelly Bryant.
If Clemson is going to win Saturday night, the chain needs to be kept out of the spotlight for the night’s entirety.
With all that being said, if Clemson can win the field-position battle and force Miami to make 75 to 85-yard drives, then the Tigers defense shouldn’t allow more than 14 points.
On the other side of the ball, if Bryant can keep it out of Miami’s playmakers on defense’s hands and drive the ball downfield, then the Tigers should wear down Miami.
Expect this to go the distance and for both teams to hang around each other for a while. This game is for a spot in the playoff. Anything can happen.
However, Clemson should make a few more plays than Miami and win the game in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: 28-14 Clemson