Keys to Victory: Clemson vs. Florida State

Each week we give you a look at the game's history, three keys to success, plus Swanny's prediction.

The Match-Up:

Florida State (3-4, 2-2 ACC) at Clemson (4-3, 3-2 ACC)

Clemson vs. FSU 2019

Series History:

• OVERALL: Clemson trails series, 13-20
• HOME: Series is tied, 8-8
• ROAD: Clemson trails series, 5-12
• NEUTRAL: N/A - LAST MEETING: Oct. 12, 2019 (45-14, W)
• STREAK: Clemson, Won 5

Watch the Simulation:

Stat of the Week:

Clemson attempting to win its 32nd consecutive home game to extend its school record for both the longest home winning streak and longest home unbeaten streak in school history (as well as extend the nation’s longest active home winning streak). Of the 132 players on Clemson’s 2021 roster, 127 have never experienced a home loss in their Clemson careers. Five sixth-year “super seniors” on Clemson’s 2021 roster were on the 2016 team that recovered from a home loss to Pitt by winning the national championship that season.

Chasing History:

Clemson returns to Death Valley riding the nation's longest home winning streak, dating to 2016. Clemson's current 31-game streak is presently tied with 1890-93 Yale, 1990-95 Texas A&M and 2001-05 Boise State (31 each) for the 18th-longest home winning streak in FBS history. That streak includes two home victories against Florida State, a 31-14 win in 2017 and a 45-14 win in 2019.

Key 1: Ground Game

The Tigers have gone from one of the most loaded running back rooms in college football this spring to needing to play two true freshmen and a sixth-year former walk-on in just the eighth game of the season.

Given the recent transfers of Lyn-J Dixon and Mikey Dukes, plus the exodus of Chez Mellusi this offseason, some have started to question exactly how C.J. Spiller is managing his unit and if he was the right fit given a lack of coaching experience. Personally, I think it is way too early to tell, but those murmurs will continue as long as this unit either lacks production or opportunities. 

Dabo Swinney insinuated earlier this week that Will Shipley has been ‘a blade of grass’ from breaking one and in today's contest that would be a welcomed result. Shipley has to be chomping at the bit to make amends for his dropped would-be touchdown reception last weekend.

Key 2: Make it Muddy

After starting the year 0-4 Florida State is a much-improved team-- in fact, in the preseason, the Seminoles continued to be a team I had my eye on, but their slow start this season had me convinced that this would be another Clemson blowout-- until the Tigers’ issues continued to linger all season.

Now, with a resurgent rushing attack, the Seminoles have a legit chance to win in Death Valley and snap Clemson's five-game winning streak in the series.

The Tiger defense will need to clog up the run game and force Florida State to beat them through the air. If that happens, I think Clemson will have just enough offense to hold off Mike Norvell's squad. 

Key 3: The Atmosphere

I don’t recall ever putting anything on the fans, but there is no doubt that this Clemson team needs all the support-- and the noise from the fans that they can get heading into today’s game. 

Given Clemson’s run prior to this season, there was some complacency that set into the fan base as the expectations went through the roof. It almost became the norm for the Tigers to hammer their opponents into submission and some supporters were “bored” by halftime-- how quickly the worm turns.

Fortunately, with Florida State coming to Death Valley, Clemson’s arch-rival, I expect the Tiger faithful to be fully invested in helping carry this team to a win-- especially when you consider the streaks mentioned in the Stat of the Week and Chasing History section of this piece.

Watching this team each week has been a struggle, but the Clemson fans have a chance to impact today’s contest-- with the way this group has been playing-- that might be exactly what they need.

Prediction:

For nearly six seasons, picking Clemson football games was simple-- Tigers by a mile. Outside of the College Football Playoff games, Dabo Swinney’s squad was just more talented than everyone they faced-- this year, incredibly, that fact might not have changed-- but the performances sure have.

I’ve held firm for three or more weeks that I WILL NOT predict this team to score more than 30 points until they actually do it-- unfortunately, today won’t be the day either.

Clemson can beat this FSU team, there is no doubt about that-- but if D.J Uiagalelei struggles early a quick hook should be used. Taisun Phommachanh isn’t a better talent than Uiagalelei, but he deserves a chance to lead this team as Uiagalelei has looked fragile all season.  

Clemson 27, Florida State 23

Swanny's Predictions: 

*Correct predictions in bold