Lowell's Locks: Week Four

Back to back three and three weeks, just call me Mr. Average! Bryan Harsin has to be feeling a little warm as Auburn couldn’t even mange to be competitive with Penn State, Oregon completely busted BYU’s playoff hopes, and Miami proved they are in fact NOT back as they lost an ugly slog to A&M. That was the bad news for me.

The good news is Georgia and Oklahoma took care of business as expected, and Clemson continued their trend of not covering in early season games under Dabo Swinney. However, I think that last point changes this week... 

Saturday, September 24th

Duke at Kansas (-7):

The Blue Devils and Jayhawks square off as undefeated teams, each marquee program trying to add another title to their hardwood trophy cases, and...what’s that? Duke? Kansas? Undefeated? IN FOOTBALL?? That’s right, and this one should actually be a fun game. Kansas has been one of the most explosive offenses in the country, putting up points in bunches and not turning the ball over. Duke, to their credit, has been incredibly efficient as well, and the defense is playing solidly under Mike Elko. Jayden Daniels will b the difference here as the Kansas quarterback makes the plays to pull away in front of a sold-out crowd in Lawrence.

Lowell’s Lock: Kansas covers -7

#20 Florida at #11 Tennessee (-10.5):

Florida seems to have lost their way since the opening season win over Top 10 Utah. The defense hasn’t been great, and the offender has yet to throw for a touchdown this season. Tennessee’s defense isn’t spectacular either, but Hendon Hooker is a menace in this up-tempo spread offense. Look for the Vols to pull away late.

Lowell’s Lock: Tennessee covers -10.5

#7 USC (-5.5) at Oregon State:

This one has a Pac-12 after dark weirdness feeling to it. Oregon State is shockingly undefeated, while USC has the offense rolling under first-year coach Lincoln Riley (how weird does that sound?). The Beavers make it interesting for a half, but the Trojans' offense comes to life in the third quarter to put this one away.

Lowell’s Lock: USC covers -5.5

#10 Arkansas at #23 Texas A&M (-2.5:

Does it even matter that Arkansas has one of the worst pass defenses in the country? Texas A&M has the 99th ranked passing offense and 108th ranked scoring offense. Arkansas may not be great on the backend, but they lead the nation in sacks, and giving those up as been an issue for the Aggies as well this season (1.67 sacks allowed per game). Arkansas has the 10th-ranked rushing offense and will be able to control this one and get enough stops for an outright win.

Lowell’s Lock: Arkansas covers +2.5

Charlotte at South Carolina (-23.5):

Finally, a reprieve. After two straight weeks of being manhandled by Arkansas and Georgia, the Gamecocks get someone they can handle themselves. Expect the Gamecocks to air it out as much as possible to get Spencer Rattler tuned up for what lies ahead when SEC play kicks into high gear in two weeks.

Lowell’s Lock: South Carolina covers -23.5

#5 Clemson (-7) at #21 Wake Forest:

Dave Clawson has done some incredible things with Wake Forest, even managing to steal the ACC Atlantic division title away from the Tigers last season. For all the good he’s done; however, he can’t beat the Tigers. Part of the issue is the slow-mesh read option system they use doesn’t work against the talented defensive fronts Clemson has rolled out in recent years.

With Bryan Bresee, Tyler Davis, and possibly even Xavier Thomas returning, it won’t work here either. A Clemson offense that has shown signs of being close to busting it wide open may do it here against a Wake Forest defense that isn’t particularly good in any one area. Take the Tigers to cover-- and then some.

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -7