Lowell's Locks: Week Nine

Some brutal beats over the past two weeks have significantly shrunk the advantage I built throughout the first half of the season. Oregon gave up a late score to Washington State to kill the Ducks’ cover, Tennessee built a two-touchdown advantage on Alabama, but could not hold on to cover +9, and Clemson couldn’t hold onto a 10 point second-half advantage as they fell in overtime to Miami as a three-point favorite. Such is life in trying to accurately predict games. We can’t be down forever, though.

On to this week’s slate. 

Saturday, October 28th

#1 Georgia (-14.5) vs Florida in Jacksonville:

Florida does some things well that can keep them in this game. Graham Mertz has been effective, completing just over 76 percent of his passes on the season, and the defense has been solid. However, even without Brock Bowers, the talent gap is just a little bit too wide here. Expect Florida to hang around and even get an early lead before the Bulldogs settle in and take control in the second half. 

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia covers -14.5

#8 Oregon (-6.5) at #13 Utah:

With Cam Rising shut down for the season, Oregon is the clear favorite in this game. The numbers all point to a Ducks cover here, but I am just hard-pressed to pick against Utah at home. The Utes have won 29 of their last 30 home games, including 18 in a row, and 27 in a row with fans in attendence. Oregon has the ability and talent to bust that streak, but the Ducks have lost six straight games outright on the road or at neutral sites against ranked teams. Utah at least keeps it tight. 

Lowell’s Lock: Utah covers +6.5

#20 Duke at #18 Louisville (-6):

This is a critical matchup for two surprising teams hoping to play for an ACC title. Duke is 2-1 in conference, while Louisville sits at 3-1. Duke played valiantly with Florida State last weekend before an injury to quarterback Riley Leonard derailed things for the Blue Devils. Leonard is listed as day to day, but if I had to guess, he will be out for this one. Even still, Duke has established an identity has a hard-nosed, ground and pound team that forces you to play their style. Louisville’s offense has been good this year, averaging 462 yards per game, but this Duke defense is a different animal than what they’re used to seeing. I like the Blue Devils to make it interesting. 

Lowell’s Lock: Duke covers +6

#6 Oklahoma (-8.5) at Kansas:

This has potential to be the most fun game of the weekend. Kansas doesn’t care much for defense, giving up nearly 400 yards and just north of 27 points per game. The Sooners, meanwhile, have finally found a solid defense to pair with their explosive offense. Oklahoma gives up some points in this one, but the defense will rise up when it needs to in the second half as it has so often this season, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel will have a field day as the Sooners pull away. 

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma covers -8.5

South Carolina at Texas A&M (-17):

This is just about the worst matchup on the schedule for South Carolina. The Aggies rank T-4th in the nation in sacks. The Gamecocks are T-123rd in sack allowed. The Aggies rank T-3rd in tackles for loss. The Gamecocks rank T-122nd in tackles for loss allowed. The Aggies are 38^th in passing at 268 yards per game. The Gamecocks are 130^th in passing defense, giving up 305 yards per game. 

Do you see where I’m going with this? Texas A&M crusies in a similar fashion to Missouri last weekend.

Lowell’s Locks: Texas A&M covers -17

Clemson (-10) at NC State:

We’ll find out in this one what kind of motivator Dabo Swinney is. For all intents and purposes, every season goal outside of a state title is now gone. Clemson is such a big favorite in this one due to how horrid the Wolfpack have looked this season, but Clemson took a very tough loss to Miami last weekend. I expect the Tigers to come out a little flat, overall control the game, but give the ball away a few times to keep things way tighter than they should be. 

Score Prediction: 24-16 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: NC State covers +10

Until next week, folks.