No. 1 Clemson vs No. 4 Alabama: Our Take

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Each week we give you three keys to the game and our staff predictions. Here is a look at the 2018 Sugar Bowl between Clemson and Alabama. 

The Match Up:

January 1, 2018 – Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, La.

#1 Clemson (12-1, 7-1) vs #4 Alabama (11-1, 7-1)

All-Time Series:

Alabama leads 13-4
Last Meeting: Clemson 35-31, 2017 National Championship
Last Alabama Win: 45-40, 2016 National Championship

Sweet Appearances:
While Clemson is making just its second appearance in the Sugar Bowl (the first was a 7-0 loss to LSU in the 1959 game), the Crimson Tide will be making a record 16th appearance in the Sugar Bowl; Alabama’s eight wins in the game is also a record. In addition to its 15 previous Sugar Bowl appearances, the Tide was hosted by the Allstate Sugar Bowl for the 2012 Allstate BCS National Championship game, when it upended LSU, 21-0, for its 14th national title. The Crimson Tide also secured national championships with wins in the Sugar Bowl in 1962, 1979, 1980 and 1993.

The Trilogy:
Clemson and Alabama have significant history in the first three years of the College Football Playoff (CFP). The two teams played in the last two CFP National Championships – the Crimson Tide held off the Tigers, 45-40, in the title game following the 2015 season, but then Clemson gained revenge with a touchdown in the final seconds of last year’s Championship, winning 35-31.

Three Times:
Tonight’s game will mark just the second time in history that two teams have met in three consecutive postseasons. The only other time it happened was when Ohio State and USC met in three straight Rose Bowls (1973-74-75).

Top Five:
This year’s marks the 19th time that a pair of top five teams (based on AP Poll) have matched up in the Sugar Bowl. The first time was in the 1936 contest when No. 4 TCU topped No. 1 LSU, 3-2. The most recent time was the 2015 Playoff Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl when No. 4 Ohio State held off No. 1 Alabama, 42-35.

Defending Champs:
Clemson will be the 22nd defending national champion to play in the Sugar Bowl. The last defending champ was Florida, the 2008 BCS National Champion, which rolled to a 51-24 win over Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. 

Back-to-Back Champs:
This game marks just the second time since "Consensus National Champions" were named after the 1950 college football season that National Champions from the prior two seasons will face off against one another in a bowl game. The only other time was the 2000 Fiesta Bowl, when Tennessee (1998 National Champion) faced Nebraska (1997 National Champion). 

Playoff Semifinals History:
2014-15 Rose Bowl No. 2 Oregon def. No. 3 Florida State 59-20
2014-15 Sugar Bowl No. 4 Ohio State def. No. 1 Alabama 42-35

2015-16 Orange Bowl No. 1 Clemson def. No. 4 Oklahoma 37-17
2015-16 Cotton Bowl No. 2 Alabama def. No. 3 Michigan State 38-0

2016-17 Fiesta Bowl No. 2 Clemson def. No. 3 Ohio State 31-0
2016-17 Peach Bowl No. 1 Alabama def. No. 4 Washington 24-7

2017-18 Rose Bowl No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia
2017-18 Sugar Bowl No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Alabama

The SEC and ACC in the Sugar Bowl:
Alabama’s Sugar Bowl bid marks the 78th time a current member of the SEC has earned an invite to New Orleans. The league’s current membership has an all-time mark of 35-41-1 in the Sugar Bowl. Clemson will be the 31st ACC team (current membership) to play in the Sugar Bowl; the league is 17-12-1 in those appearances.

ACC vs. SEC in the Sugar Bowl:
This year’s Sugar Bowl match-up will be the seventh official showdown between the SEC and the ACC in New Orleans (the SEC leads 4-2). However, when looking at current conference memberships, there have been 21 Sugar Bowls featuring teams from the SEC and the ACC with the ACC holding a narrow 9-11-1 edge. That number does not include the 1956 Sugar Bowl between Georgia Tech (then in the SEC) and Pitt (Independent).

The Coaches:
Nick Saban is making his sixth appearance in the Sugar Bowl (2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015), his first two with LSU and the last three with Alabama. He is tied with Bobby Bowden for third all-time in sugar Bowl trips, behind only Bear Bryant (9) and Johnny Vaught (8). Dabo Swinney will be making his Sugar Bowl coaching debut and will be the 96th different coach to direct a team to the annual New Orleans classic. However, it is not Swinney’s overall Sugar Bowl debut – see next note.

Alma Mater:
Dabo Swinney is just the second coach in Sugar Bowl history to face off against his alma mater. Swinney, a 1993 Alabama graduate, joins Urban Meyer, who coached Florida to a 51-24 victory over his alma mater of Cincinnati in the 2010 Allstate Sugar Bowl. 

Champions:
Clemson will be the 88th conference champion to play in the Sugar Bowl. The Tigers were also conference champions in their first Sugar Bowl visit following the 1958 season.

Clemson's vs. Alabama 2016 & 2017 Highlights:

Key 1: Protect the ball

I'm not sure there is a stat more important to the game for Clemson. In last season's game, the Tigers managed to survive losing the turnover battle 2-0. The Tigers probably fall in Tampa without Hunter Renfrow. 

Sure, Renfrow had a great game hauling in 10 passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns including the game-winning reception with a second left, but it was Renfrow’s tackle of Ryan Anderson that may have been the play of the game.

On the opening drive of the second half, Alabama’s Ryan Anderson stripped Wanye Gallman at the 34-yard line and scooped the ball into his arms. Anderson then rumbled towards the end zone would have scored giving Alabama 21-7 lead early in the second half. 

Instead, Renfrow's tackle allowed Clemson's defense to earn a stop and Alabama was only able to kick a field goal making it 17-7. 

In my estimation, Clemson cannot and will not beat Alabama if they lose the turnover battle by more than one.

Key 2: Jalen's arm hurts

Last season, Jalen Hurts nearly led the Crimson Tide on a game-winning drive with under five minutes left on the clock. Against most opponents, that drive would have been enough as Alabama took a 31-28 lead late.

While credited with guiding Alabama down the field late, it wasn't Hurts' arm that gave Clemson fits. In fact, most of the night Hurts was average in the downfield passing game going 13-31 for 131 yards and 1 touchdown.

That's exactly the type of performance Clemson would like to see from Hurts tonight. If Clemson's defensive line wins the battle in the trenches, it will force Hurts to throw the ball. If that number reaches 30 or more passes, I think it significantly favors the Tigers. 

Clemson Sports Talk

Jalen Hurts' only interception this season came against Arkansas.

This season, Hurts has only thrown one interception, but the most passes he has attempted has been 24 against LSU. The Bayou Bengals are also the only top 25 ranked rushing defense the Crimson Tide have seen this season at 21st. By comparison, Clemson is 12th against the rush.

Key 3: Win the line of scrimmage

For the first time in this series, Clemson seems to have the advantage on both sides of the ball at the line of scrimmage. Since taking over at Alabama, it's been rare that Nick Saban's squad is outmanned up front, but this game might be one of those times.

Clemson's going to have the luxury of bringing four down lineman frequently and allowing seven guys to drop into coverage. Having seven guys in coverage should give Clemson another decided advantage in the secondary as Hurts has been erratic all season.

If Clemson's front-four can create havoc up front, that's a big advantage for the Tigers as Alabama doesn't possess the level of skill position players that Clemson brings into this semifinal matchup.

Clemson Sports Talk

Sugar Bowl - Playoff Semifinal - Clemson vs Alabama - 8:45PM ESPN

Prediction:

My instant prediction on this game when the pairing was announced was that Clemson would win 24-10. It was one of those gut feelings based on what I have seen from both teams this season.

After further evaluation, here's what I think:

Clemson comes in averaging 448.2 ypg and 35.4 ppg and have been balanced all season long. While Kelly Bryant isn't Deshaun Watson he has played well on the biggest of stages and it won't get much bigger than this.

The Tigers average 204 yards rushing and 244 yards passing giving the coaching staff a well-rounded playbook. Clemson also has four running backs that they can put on the field at any time and as we've seen, late in games a guy like Travis Etienne can cause fits.

The Crimson Tide put up 465.4 ypg with 39.1 ppg but after rewatching their game with Auburn, they don't seem to have the weapons that are needed to be versatile offensively. The one area that they have been great in this season is protecting the football and Jalen Hurts only throwing one interception is quite the accomplishment. I'd be surprised if he doesn't throw at least one pick against the Tigers.

In the end, I still think that Clemson is the better team. I know that Alabama has out recruited Clemson every season, but 5-star players aren't always the best players. I often talk about 5-star hearts, 5-star students of the game, 5-star commitment and I think Clemson has more of that than Alabama right now.

I'll stand firm with my initial prediction. I think Clemson wins 24-10.

Final Score Predictions:

* Four simulations - Clemson won three of the four simulations.