Lowell's Locks: Week Four
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That’s more like it. A 4-2 record last week brings the season total back to .500. Kansas State, Alabama, and Memphis all easily handled business, while Boston College scrapped and clawed with Missouri to cover the spread to round out the good. South Carolina nearly upset LSU, and Oregon finally looked like a title contender against Oregon State to cover the bad. With four ranked vs. ranked matchups this week, now is the time to really build some momentum with a fun slate of games.
Friday, September 20th:
No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (-8.5):
This could be a classic-looking Big Ten game. Both teams are playing terrific defense, and the Illini should be able to make things a little messy for freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola for the first time. Illinois coach Bret Bielema has an uncanny ability to get his squad to pop up and randomly push ranked teams, and I expect this game to be similar.
Lowell’s Lock: Illinois covers +8.5
Saturday, September 21st:
No. 11 USC (-5.5) at No.18 Michigan:
These two teams haven’t met since the 2007 Rose Bowl, a 32-18 win for the Pete Carroll-led Trojans against the Lloyd Carr-led Wolverines. The big story for the Trojans is their improvement in defense, ranking 18th in scoring defense, 33rd in rushing defense, 72nd in passing defense, and 55th in total defense. The Trojans played tough and steady against an explosive LSU squad and have already recorded a shutout over Utah State. The offense is what you’d expect under Lincoln Riley, ranking 7th in passing offense and 16th in total offense.
The Wolverines are still trying to find themselves. While the defense has been mostly okay, they got shredded by Texas a couple of weeks ago, and the offense can’t find any kind of rhythm. Michigan ranks just 50th in rushing offense, 121st in passing offense, and 106th in total offense while averaging just 23.3 points per game.
The spread feels big for a game at the Big House, but I don’t have much faith in Michigan right now, and USC has shown enough improvement defensively for me to trust them here.
Lowell’s Lock: USC covers -5.5
No. 12 Utah (-2) at No. 14 Oklahoma State:
This one is a bit of a coin flip. Utah quarterback Cam Rising is expected to play after missing last week’s game with a finger injury, and that immediately gives a boost to a team that likes to play no-nonsense, hardnosed football. Both teams feature offenses that can be explosive, but the Utes have the better defense. This one comes down to the wire.
Lowell’s Lock: Utah covers -2
No. 6 Tennessee (-7) at No. 15 Oklahoma:
Call it the Josh Huepal Bowl. The head coach at Tennessee was previously the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma but was unceremoniously fired after a 40-6 dud against Clemson in the 2014 Russell Athletic Bowl, which was ironically the last time he faced a Brent Venables defense. This Tennessee offense is a bit more explosive than his offense with the Sooners, and they’ve been piling the points on everyone (66 points in the first half against Kent State is just mean). Oklahoma has been playing some good defense, and should be able to pressure Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava into some mistakes, but the offense has yet to really kick it in gear. Maybe they’ve been holding back for this moment, but it’s hard to trust them over the Vols right now.
Lowell’s Lock: Tennessee covers -7
Akron at South Carolina (-28):
This is a tough game to pick. The Gamecocks are clearly better than the Zips, as the defense has made great strides, and the offense is finding its footing. South Carolina gave LSU everything it wanted and more last weekend, but I wonder how up for this game they’ll be after losing in heartbreaking fashion. Gamecock quarterback LaNorris Sellers is banged up, and it’s fair to wonder if they’ll limit his running in an effort to protect his ankle in a buy game. This line is too big with too many questions surrounding South Carolina right now.
Lowell’s Lock: Akron covers +28
NC State at No. 22 Clemson (-20.5):
This line opened at Clemson -7.5, but with the news that NC State quarterback Grayson McCall is out and freshman CJ Bailey will be making his first start in Death Valley, that line quickly skyrocketed. The Wolfpack have looked abysmal so far on offense this season, and they got smacked around in a 51-10 loss to their only real competition this season in Tennessee. The defense is still good enough to compete, but the offense will have a hard time against this Clemson defense. The Tigers also have a lot of momentum offensively following a 66-point performance against App State two weeks ago, and while they won’t do that again, they’ll keep that momentum alive.
Score Prediction: 38-17 Clemson
Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -20.5
Lowell’s Locks |
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| Weekly Results | Season Results | |
| Week 1 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Week 2 | 2-4 | 5-7 |
| Week 3 | 4-2 | 9-9 |
| Week 4 | ||
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